Originally Posted by
hikerbrian
Excellent article. Uncertainty is a concept most people have a very difficult time with. And it does go both ways. Look at the storm that's winding down now: On Wednesday, my town (Sharon, MA) was predicted to get little, if any, accumulation. Thursday morning, the forecast rapidly changed to "as much as 8-12" total accumulation." Fast forward another 24 hrs: with two feet on the ground now and it still snowing, it's safe to say they underestimated this one. That's how it goes. Weather is a complicated phenomenon, and computer models are only as accurate as the data that HUMANS put in and the weighting functions that HUMANS apply. This is true of all computer models, not just those that deal with meteorology.
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