Snow Pack Melt Predictions and Guesses for 2015

So it's been a persistent bear of a winter this year. Understanding that this is guesswork, I'm still curious to hear from any here who care to venture their best guesses for the following questions:

How soon will south-facing, wooded slopes be substantially snow-free to 4250 or so?

How about north-facing, wooded slopes to 4250?

For the fun of it, how deep into summer with the snow at the base of Tuck's main headwall last? Likewise Jefferson's eastern snowfield between the knee and the summit?

Feel free to throw in any other speculative musings along these lines.

My relatively inexperienced and uninformed guesses: May 8 for south. June 4 for north. Tuck's July 28. Jeff - June 22.

Is there a peak at 4250 you're hoping to climb w/o 'winter' gear?

It's not unusual to see snow in the form of a monorail along the higher trails in June.

One weather expert I know has suggested that Winter conditions seem to be starting and ending later the last few years.

Well, I think you may still need to define snow-free a bit more. You will probably still some some snow well into June, but you probably wouldn't consider it to be a snow pack. We did a hike last year on 4/27 that resulted in walking through a couple feet of snow at the 2200' line. I would guess that will be similar this year at that time as well. It was a nice hike if anyone wants to do the research.

Tom Rankin said:

Is there a peak at 4250 you're hoping to climb w/o 'winter' gear?

It's not unusual to see snow in the form of a monorail along the higher trails in June.

One weather expert I know has suggested that Winter conditions seem to be starting and ending later the last few years.

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I picked 4250 b/c above that number, you start to get above treeline, so the snow would tend to have melted there sooner than under the shade of trees.

I'm looking for "Can you hike it safely without spikes or boots," and I have a high threshold for "safely."

Depends on when it ever warms up. April will be the deciding factor.

The only hard and fast rule about mud season is that anyone with any sense goes somewhere else ... which, to some, makes it a good time to be there.

Stan said:

The only hard and fast rule about mud season is that anyone with any sense goes somewhere else ... which, to some, makes it a good time to be there.

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Alas, you can't *both* be a Gridiot *and* have sense.

That would be the ultimate list for me: the 48 4k's in November and April. If you bag all the peaks in those two months you should have pretty much seen it all and then some.

November is a walk in the proverbial park. April... not so much.

Stan said:

The only hard and fast rule about mud season is that anyone with any sense goes somewhere else ... which, to some, makes it a good time to be there.

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Do they make anything like snowshoes for mud ? I'd really like to get off trail in May, but last year it was not really possible.

I know one thing, my dog LOVES mud season on the trail. Water everywhere, to drink in, to play in, sheer doggy heaven.

sierra said:

I know one thing, my dog LOVES mud season on the trail. Water everywhere, to drink in, to play in, sheer doggy heaven.

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In my experience in Vermont, it's always mud season over there. My first Stratton Mtn hike, in October 2010, was much muddier than my second, in mid May 2012. I follow the trail reports and judge from there.

Meanwhile, to the point of my OP, c'mon, folks! No one willing to have some over-under fun here? No guesses at all!?!? Are ya all sticks in the mud, as it were? As a weather geek and a lover of the mountains, am I really the only one here who enjoys such guessing games? Do I gotta throw in a pack of beer as a prize or something?

Driver8 said:

In my experience in Vermont, it's always mud season over there. My first Stratton Mtn hike, in October 2010, was much muddier than my second, in mid May 2012. I follow the trail reports and judge from there.

Meanwhile, to the point of my OP, c'mon, folks! No one willing to have some over-under fun here? No guesses at all!?!? Are ya all sticks in the mud, as it were? As a weather geek and a lover of the mountains, am I really the only one here who enjoys such guessing games? Do I gotta throw in a pack of beer as a prize or something?

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Judging by the Obs Facebook Page as of today April 1st.....it could be awhile

Chip said:

Do they make anything like snowshoes for mud ? I'd really like to get off trail in May, but last year it was not really possible.

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Ayuh: Marsh skis

Okay, now that I've had my fun, you might try these, but don't call me to come get you out: Mudders Mud & Snow Shoes

Update: my May 8 south-facing guess is looking pretty good. North-facing may be too late. Way too early to judge on Tuck's & Jeff.

What is south facing at 4250? Getting to Greenleaf snow free? Perhaps Liberty (4300+ before it begins to open up, Liberty Spring is more western facing.) or the Moosilauke Carriage Rd, fairly wide and then Beaver Brook, a steep northern facing trail.

Thinking even latter than north facing are the highest wooded trails. (Along the top of the Tri's, the Twinway from just south of South Twin to Guyot and then along the way to Zealand. Also add Franconia Ridge between Liberty & Little Haystack and two of my fav's (not) Wildcat Ridge and Garfield Ridge)

Not paying attention of being that far north this Spring so dates would be just a guess and wouldn't want anyone to plan a trip around a date I'd say. Just ventured this Spring onto snow free Mass trails in the Holyoke Range on 4/29. Earlier trips to Wachusett in April still had snow in the woods although the road was clear. This weekend, Race and Everett. may get to the Whites around Memorial Day.