Massive heat wave coming to North Conway area

B the Hiker said:

As I write this (3pm on Thursday, Feb 23, it's 65 degrees in North Conway!

Just as a benchmark, here are most recent snow depths at the stake, as reported by the caretakers:
Lonesome Lake 45
Highland Center 25
Zealand Falls 38
Carter Notch 45.5
Observatory 70.6

Let's see what it's like next week...



Brian

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Now for three days later...
As of Sunday morning, 2-26-17

Lonesome Lake 33 (down 12 inches)
Highland Center 19 (down 6 inches)
Zealand Falls 26 (down 12 inches)
Carter Notch 27 (down 17.5 inches)
Observatory 73.2 (up 3 inches)

Putting aside the Observatory, it seems we lost about a foot of snow in three days. Admittedly, much is to compression, but clearly some of that must have also flowed downhill and will be hitting the river systems at some point shortly, if it hasn't already.

Brian

Did Garfield yesterday, the water crossing were high and we did the bushwhack, but I wouldn't have said they were particularly high for late spring.

No snow, but lots of ice the first mile and than pretty good snow depth the rest of the way.

Hiking with Kat said:

Did Garfield yesterday, the water crossing were high and we did the bushwhack, but I wouldn't have said they were particularly high for late spring. .

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Except that it's not late spring; it's the middle of winter.

B the Hiker said:

Except that it's not late spring; it's the middle of winter.

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I expect three more 12+ inch snow storms before Winter is over.

The rapid cool down on Sunday pretty much put the brakes on snowmelt. The Pemi flooded in its usual spot and I think the Wild river in Maine may have broken loose. Technically we are just short of meteorological spring (March 1st ) an not that far from Spring (March 21st). That said unlike last year with a strong El nino, we are in more normal weather pattern so I wouldn't take the snow tires off yet.

egilbe said:

I expect three more 12+ inch snow storms before Winter is over.

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March is a cruel month, to be certain, but looking at the two week forecast (and admittedly, that will change, I'm seeing eight days with temps forecasted to be in the 50s or 60s, four in the 40s, and only one with a high below freezing. Eight of those days are forecasted to have lows that won't get below freezing. Right now, there is virtually no snow at all in the forecast!

That's through March 14, and winter ends on the 21st.

I don't know folks, clearly there will be another snow storm or two, but that new snow won't be landing on much of a base!




Brian

Contrary to the desperate ski industry hype, there still is snow pack in the northern whites but it is far less than some real optimistic ski area reports. At my place (1400 feet) there is no more than 1 foot of snow in open areas. When I roamed the woods at my new woodlot in Randolph on Sunday (south facing slope ranging from 1300 to 1700 feet) I was hard pressed to find much more than 1 foot except in few shaded softwood stands). In many locations there is bare ground around hardwood tree trunks.

B the Hiker said:

March is a cruel month, to be certain, but looking at the two week forecast (and admittedly, that will change, I'm seeing eight days with temps forecasted to be in the 50s or 60s, four in the 40s, and only one with a high below freezing. Eight of those days are forecasted to have lows that won't get below freezing. Right now, there is virtually no snow at all in the forecast!

That's through March 14, and winter ends on the 21st.

I don't know folks, clearly there will be another snow storm or two, but that new snow won't be landing on much of a base!

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Even with last years dismal winter there was still ice on the trails into early May (at elevation). Any snow is March will will be adding to a base higher up at least.

I'm no scientist at all. I rarely follow topics like global warming. That being said, I have over 35 years of winters in the Whites to base the following on. The winter's are nothing like they used to be in regards to snow and cold. The trails would take till mid may to clear when I was younger, now May 1st, there are plenty of cleared trails. Cold temps. I know enough about Global warming to know your talking about, 1,2,3 degree increments in regards to changes of temp patterns. But, I just don't see the cold I used too. I carry a nice parka, I hardly ever use it. Maybe it's just an illusion, but winter's just don't seem too tough anymore.

Without getting into the AGW discussion, its easy to have selective memory on past weather events. I have been in the whites since 87 and have seen years where there was bare ground until New years and early spring events like this that were followed by significant later snow. On the other hand there was a stretch where there was consistent snow on the ground from mid October on. One claim is AGW is just putting a lot more energy in the atmosphere and therefore weather is far more chaotic, with higher highs and lower lows. Last year many western ski areas opened late and closed early due lack of snow, this year they have more snow then they know what to do with. When I first moved up here there were a couple of years where snowshoes were needed until May. Another year I did a winter traverse from Pinkham via Washington and then to Crawford notch and never needed snowshoes or crampons. Overall the local trends seem to be higher average winter temps at my place and far lower snowpack offset by rain events. When working in Berlin It was pretty consistent that there were at least 3 sub -20 F multiday cold snaps and usually two of them were sub -30 F. I don't mind not having those events.

sierra said:

I'm no scientist at all. I rarely follow topics like global warming. That being said, I have over 35 years of winters in the Whites to base the following on. The winter's are nothing like they used to be in regards to snow and cold. The trails would take till mid may to clear when I was younger, now May 1st, there are plenty of cleared trails. Cold temps. I know enough about Global warming to know your talking about, 1,2,3 degree increments in regards to changes of temp patterns. But, I just don't see the cold I used too. I carry a nice parka, I hardly ever use it. Maybe it's just an illusion, but winter's just don't seem too tough anymore.

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Back in the day when I was a downhill skiier I would normally have 2-3 trips in by Thanksgiving, and not just on a single icy trail but many trails. Ski season doesn't seem to start earnest until after New Years now. I can't say it's colder or not colder but it certainly seems like we get less snow than we used to. Haven't looked at any data to back that up but it seems like good Winters like 2007-2008 are rarity now.

Plenty of New England climatology data to back that up too. There were a few periods in the late '60s and '70s that were historically colder than normal, which only makes it seem worse for those of us who cut our winter teeth back in those decades. The Mt Washington Observatory site and NWS sites in the New England offices (Gray, Caribou, Boston- Burlington is relatively new) would have data for those of you waiting out mud season who are interested.

On the other hand, haven't there been snow droughts in recent history, such as one in the 1980s that caused several smaller ski areas to go out of business?

I think this warm weather event and subsequent discussion helps underscore the complexity of climate (long term weather patterns) vs weather (what's it doing right now?), as well as the difficulty in using correct nomenclature of global warming (increase in the average global temperature) vs climate change (how weather trends are changing over time). Once you have those concepts down, the tricky part is understanding that in only using averages, we lose the nuance that having the standard deviation provides. I.E., if the average temperature increased by 1 degree, you can't tell if that means that the highs and lows are more extreme, and which places are warmer/colder than before. Adding to complexity is the natural variation within the climate with short term trends popping up. What am I getting at? Everyone's anecdotes are probably accurate to some degree, but it really requires rigorous analysis to suss out the noise and few of us are qualified to do that, but these are good conversations to have, and there is lots of information (and data) available for those looking to explore more. There's always this strategy too.

I can remember snowmobiling during hunting season in the 70's. Hunting with snow up to my knees. Havent seen that in November in years. Friends would go up to the Rangeley area to go snowmobiling in May, while we were trying to open our pool for Memorial weekend. Definitely been a warming trend the last few decades. I read Joe Dodges Biography and he stated that its been warming since he was in the Whites since the 1920's and he passed away in the 70's. We are coming out of an ice age. It will continue getting warmer until some weird atmosperic event happens that drastically swings the climate the other way.

peakbagger said:

...I wouldn't take the snow tires off yet.

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What he said.

Of course, I was supposed to be up at Subsig today (Tuesday, March 14) and Wednesday the 15th!

With luck, I'll find some hiking partners and get up Thursday and Friday and perhaps be able to use my snow shoes for the first time this winter. Hopefully by then all the lots will have been plowed out. Would love to do Cabot, and am interested to see if the Fish Hatchery got hit as hard as Crawford Notch does.


Brian

Friday looks like the day to go play. I am sticking with my contention that Northern NH may not get the heavy accumulations by the shadow effect of the whites.

Worse case is I put the batteries in my Unimog and then I just drive over or through whatever falls.

In Keene NY at 1800' I have a solid two feet already - maybe 26"...and the forecast calls for another foot overnight...

egilbe said:

I expect three more 12+ inch snow storms before Winter is over.

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B the Hiker said:

March is a cruel month, to be certain, but looking at the two week forecast (and admittedly, that will change, I'm seeing eight days with temps forecasted to be in the 50s or 60s, four in the 40s, and only one with a high below freezing. Eight of those days are forecasted to have lows that won't get below freezing. Right now, there is virtually no snow at all in the forecast!

That's through March 14, and winter ends on the 21st.

I don't know folks, clearly there will be another snow storm or two, but that new snow won't be landing on much of a base!




Brian

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I think this is the 3rd, potentially 12+ inch snowstorm forecasted since I made my prediction? After this weekend, Winter will be over. Yeah, I know, I dont care what the calendar says. Its still Winter if Im still snowshoing.