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gaiagirl
01-26-2007, 12:01 PM
Has anyone heard anything about weather for Saturday and or Sunday? It is absolutely frigid up here in the Mount Washington Valley today, but I was hearing that tomorrow should be better, ie, temperatures not as low and winds greatly diminished. I am doing a guided hike tomorrow and I'm also hoping to get up something that's still on my Winter list on Sunday. I don't think I would choose to be up on Franconia Ridge on a day like today, though I am sure the views are absolutely stunning. Hoping the weekend's weather looks a bit warmer. Any info would be super!

Thanks,

giggy
01-26-2007, 12:13 PM
not to sounds like a smart bunhole - but did you check the MWO and NWS?

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?CityName=Mount+Washington&state=NH&site=GYX

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/summit_forecast.php


everybody have fun tonight - everybody wang chung tonight.

gaiagirl
01-26-2007, 12:21 PM
I hope I don't sound stupid, but I honestly never quite believe the Observatory forecasts. If I wanted current conditions on the higher summits, I'd go right to their webpage, of course. But I haven't been quite as thrilled with their forecasts. I suppose I should check it out, it's probably the best I can do.

Not so sure about the wang chunging part, but fun will be had, I'm sure. :D

giggy
01-26-2007, 12:42 PM
ok fair enough - not sure what else is really out there for better predictions.

dance hall days...

come on your about my age - a child of the 80's? you don't know that saying/song.

skiguy
01-26-2007, 01:40 PM
ok fair enough - not sure what else is really out there for better predictions.

dance hall days...

come on your about my age - a child of the 80's? you don't know that saying/song.

maybe of the 80's but a child?

Wang Chung Tonight (http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=wang%20chung%20tonight&sourceid=ie7&rls=com.microsoft:en-US&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wv)

giggy
01-26-2007, 01:44 PM
haha - meaning I was a child in the 80's... thats so bananarama :eek:

frankie says choose life -

gaiagirl
01-26-2007, 01:46 PM
Yes, I am a child of the 80s but I think I've blocked out a good deal of the music by choice! (Well, ok, except The Wedding Singer was really funny and some of the music had me singing along. Who doesn't love Billy Idol, am I right??!!! :D ) Yeah, I know the line, just not sure what in the hell it means!

skiguy
01-26-2007, 02:03 PM
haha - meaning I was a child in the 80's... thats so bananarama :eek:

frankie says choose life -

I wish I was a child in the 80's...us old guys of the 70's could only come up with stuff like "a hiking we will go" by the Chipmunks!

MadRiver
01-26-2007, 02:15 PM
How about "How much is that doggy in the window" I'm older than dirt!

gaiagirl
01-26-2007, 02:20 PM
Some day, I hope to be older than dirt too (am I in no rush, though! :p ). And still hiking; that part's key.

trailbiscuit
01-26-2007, 02:20 PM
The weather should moderate this weekend. Looks like a nice'un.

I think the Obs is usually dead on. I think they're one of your best bets. (Certainly better than the Disaster Channel.) Of course, it's meteorology, so there is certainly a margin for error.

P.S. I'm wang chunging right now.

Mike P.
01-26-2007, 04:37 PM
I use the MWO & TWC & then think in a range between the two based on my destination (Tripryamids this weekend)

Expect temps in single digits, depending on destination, one side of zero or the other. Latest TWC shows wind slowing down but I'd still back the face masks, goggles, etc...

and how about some good songs from the 80's. Van Halen, Metallica.

BIGEarl
01-26-2007, 05:16 PM
Here you go....

A site with a little of everything. Clearly trying to be all things to all people. I used the forecasting models (NOAA MOS FORECASTS) quite a bit last year and they were extremely helpful. If you know the code name for a location then you're on the way. Mount Washington (summit) is KMWN. The Nashua Airport which is very close to my house is KASH.


http://www.crownweather.com/summitsforecast.html

What more could you possibly want? :D


Earl

w7xman
01-26-2007, 05:20 PM
As I am quite involved in the weather in the whites, I'll add a few thoughts. First off, no one has mentioned it, but in season, the avalanche forecast often has good discussions on the forecast as well as snow conditions in the ravine, and should be added to any scouting process IMO


I hope I don't sound stupid, but I honestly never quite believe the Observatory forecasts. If I wanted current conditions on the higher summits, I'd go right to their webpage, of course. But I haven't been quite as thrilled with their forecasts. I suppose I should check it out, it's probably the best I can do.

First off, as the weather in the whites is often not as well behaved as we would like, and all forecasts SHOULD be cross-checked and scrutanized during the decision making process before a hike...

However:
Recent changes in the MWO have created a product that has increased accuracy...

Basically, they decided to move into taking the responsibility of forecasting from the summits, a function that the organization had never done before, soley focusing on their mission to observer and educate. Until then, they just took the NWS higher summits forecasts, which are limited. But the old forecasts are still produced by NWS Grey, ME and are available through weather.gov as a cross check!

They've found our new forecasts to verify quite well internally...but it's not the easiest place to forecast for period. The one thing I can guarentee, is that the MWO puts the most human time into analyzing the weather for the whites, with four degreed mets on staff. Often, if unsure of the forecast, they'll post it, and therefore the discussion is often more valuable than the 36 hour forecast itself as we discuss the range of possible weather.

Most major websites mt wash forecasts all are repackaged computer models, which hit well sometimes, but can be VERY wrong...that's why meteorologists exist, to interprit the models with their experience and skill...

If you have specific thoughts, I know that they are always open to critique and ideas on style and delivery!






I think the Obs is usually dead on. I think they're one of your best bets. (Certainly better than the Disaster Channel.) Of course, it's meteorology, so there is certainly a margin for error.


Great to hear! For reasons above, positive feedback is as important as criticism!



Here you go....

A site with a little of everything. Clearly trying to be all things to all people. I used the forecasting models (NOAA MOS FORECASTS) quite a bit last year and they were extremely helpful. If you know the code name for a location then you're on the way. Mount Washington (summit) is KMWN. The Nashua Airport which is very close to my house is KASH.


http://www.crownweather.com/summitsforecast.html

What more could you possibly want? :D


Earl

Crownweather is a great go to stop for white mountain weather for sure, as it collects data from a large number of areas. I recommend checking it out!

giggy
01-26-2007, 05:37 PM
w7xman - I think you guys do a heck of a job up there. (U work there right?) by 7am usually, we have a good weather report and avy report - which I agree with your assement - I use those 2 all the time to make a go - no go call as to what to do.

KUDOS to the the MWO for what they do.

like I said - there is no better place to get weather for the hills :)

MWO is NOAA (or affiliated??) - or is it not?

w7xman
01-26-2007, 05:44 PM
w7xman - I think you guys do a heck of a job up there. (U work there right?) by 7am usually, we have a good weather report and avy report - which I agree with your assement - I use those 2 all the time to make a go - no go call as to what to do.

KUDOS to the the MWO for what they do.

like I said - there is no better place to get weather for the hills :)

MWO is NOAA (or affiliated??) - or is it not?

Thanks, yes, I'm up there...and thanks for the kudos. WE do take the new forecasting charge seriously, and appreciate all constructive feedback, good or bad. But really posted to impart general knowledge of weather products for the whites...

MWO is not NOAA, it's non-profit research and observation, with a contract to NOAA to provide obs. Common misconception that's tough to dispell...but we do work closely at times with the mets over there...

w7xman
01-29-2007, 02:42 PM
As I am quite involved in the weather in the whites, I'll add a few thoughts. First off, no one has mentioned it, but in season, the avalanche forecast often has good discussions on the forecast as well as snow conditions in the ravine, and should be added to any scouting process IMO



First off, as the weather in the whites is often not as well behaved as we would like, and all forecasts SHOULD be cross-checked and scrutanized during the decision making process before a hike...

However:
Recent changes in the MWO have created a product that has increased accuracy...

Basically, they decided to move into taking the responsibility of forecasting from the summits, a function that the organization had never done before, soley focusing on their mission to observer and educate. Until then, they just took the NWS higher summits forecasts, which are limited. But the old forecasts are still produced by NWS Grey, ME and are available through weather.gov as a cross check!

They've found our new forecasts to verify quite well internally...but it's not the easiest place to forecast for period. The one thing I can guarentee, is that the MWO puts the most human time into analyzing the weather for the whites, with four degreed mets on staff. Often, if unsure of the forecast, they'll post it, and therefore the discussion is often more valuable than the 36 hour forecast itself as we discuss the range of possible weather.

Most major websites mt wash forecasts all are repackaged computer models, which hit well sometimes, but can be VERY wrong...that's why meteorologists exist, to interprit the models with their experience and skill...

If you have specific thoughts, I know that they are always open to critique and ideas on style and delivery!





Great to hear! For reasons above, positive feedback is as important as criticism!




Crownweather is a great go to stop for white mountain weather for sure, as it collects data from a large number of areas. I recommend checking it out!


I also forgot, another place to surely check when gathering info is Eye on the Sky from the Fairbanks Museum! It's for VT, but will give you a good idea of the weather coming in, as well as lower elevations than the MWO forecasts, which are for above treeline!

Here's that link...
http://www.fairbanksmuseum.org/eye_recreational.cfm

gaiagirl
01-29-2007, 02:56 PM
W7xman,
Thanks for all your info. I realize predicting the weather in the entire area is dicey, no matter the time of year. Add the fact that it's winter, and I'm interested in forecasts for the valleys and summits, and obviously there's no such thing is dead-on predictions. Some of my disdain of late has been with general forecasts for the area (radio and print) that have predicted snow and have been utterly false. (My snowshoeing field trips next week are going to be slippery hikes!! :() There's also been a lot of situations when myriad forecasts have been very different depending on who you listen to. Perhaps I need to just stop listening, go directly to the Observatory site when I want a forecast, and assume it's the best I'm gonna get!! :)

w7xman
01-29-2007, 04:15 PM
W7xman,
Some of my disdain of late has been with general forecasts for the area (radio and print) that have predicted snow and have been utterly false. :)

I hear that...It's been alot of wishcasting/overhyping of snow events way to far out, and alot of dissappointment. And I'm guilty (a little) of that as well! I'm lucky that the format I work with is only 36 hours out, but it's been a rough winter on all of us!

bikehikeskifish
01-29-2007, 04:43 PM
I'm lucky that the format I work with is only 36 hours out, but it's been a rough winter on all of us!

Yeah, I notice that while driving to work on Thursday -- you won't give me the Saturday forecast! And on Friday's commute, you never tell me about Sunday. :( :mad: :( :mad: ;)

Tim

bikehikeskifish
02-11-2008, 04:05 PM
I've been following the site posted earlier (by BIGEarl), namely
http://www.crownweather.com/summitsforecast.html, during the winter.
I've read the listed descriptions for all the symbols here:
http://www.weather.gov/tdl/synop/mavcard.htm, and the symbols and
values all make sense. What doesn't make sense to me is the apparent
contradiction in the values. For example, I'm interested in the FEB
12 forecast, and I've removed some of the rows and half the columns
(for FEB 13) from the report to make it easier to read.




MOS FORECASTS

GFS MOS (MAV)
KMWN GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/11/2008 1200 UTC
DT /FEB 11/FEB 12
HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21
N/X -8
TMP -13 -9 -7 -5 -4 -2 0 2 4 7
DPT -14-11 -9 -6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -5 -3
CLD OV BK OV OV SC OV FW FW SC BK
WDR 31 31 31 31 30 30 31 31 29 27
WSP 70 62 59 51 44 45 39 26 20 17
P06 4 2 1 2
P12 3
POS 94100100100100 98100100100100
TYP S S S S S S S S S S
SNW 0
VIS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
OBV BL BL BL FG FG FG FG FG FG FG


According to the CLD data, it will be OV (overcast), SC (scattered),
FW (few) and BK (broken) during the day. Likewise the P06/P12
(Probability of Precipitation during the last 6/12 hours) says
virtually none (4, 2, 1, 2).

Why then does the POS (Conditional probability of snow) show nearly
100% for most of the day?

Are there going to be good views or will the higher summits be socked
in tomorrow? Is it going to snow? Why or why not?

Thanks,
Tim

DrewKnight
02-11-2008, 04:26 PM
I would interpret the chart the same way you did, Tim, but the POP figures don't jibe so much with the other outlets, either. Weather.com (not the source of record for mountain forecasting but still) is saying partly cloudy AM, becoming overcast PM, snow developing in the evening.

This is pretty consistent with the Mt Washington Observatory, which is showing summits in the clear under increasing clouds tomorrow. They're calling for temps in the single digits with pretty good winds on the higher summits, and, again, snow developing later on.

Based on my non-scientific read, I would assume you'd be able to see a lot farther than your boots early in the day, with things closing in later. Maybe Mattl or Grouseking have a better sense of why the apparent contradiction?

BTW, the CONUS (http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_48HR.gif) snow accumulation forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday seems to be indicating 4 to 6" in the Whites, where Weather.com and the NWS seem to be hedging toward 5 to 8".

These are the times that try a winter-lover's soul... I have a really long commute and in the last week, four out of four AM drives have been white-knuckle affairs (complete with a couple of roll-overs on 93 and lots of time contemplating the value of Volvo stability control in my own car). Also, we're in the middle of building a house, and the framing crew had to quit this AM when their pneumatic nailers essentially froze up and stopped working. But -- my god! -- how good that powder felt yesterday.

bikehikeskifish
02-11-2008, 04:51 PM
Get this, the forecast for Gorham (I'm thinking about Moriah) says (forecast.weather.gov):

Tuesday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -4. Calm wind.

Does that make any sense?!?

Tim

DrewKnight
02-11-2008, 07:13 PM
That right there is what you'd call a "study in contradictions".

By the way -- the roads north of Plymouth are still pretty greasy tonight, which was a bit surprising. If the weather goes according to plan tomorrow night, it could be very messy come Wednesday morning. Be careful out there, folks.