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Mattl
11-30-2007, 07:45 AM
So I know a lot of you do care about snow so I will post this. A very unusual storm is coming into Mexico and Arizona will flooding rain followed by blizzard conditions across Colorado. They already are posted up to 5 feet of snow in southwest Colorado! The storm then comes across the country and develops a secondary low off MA coast. Then the storm bombs off the coast and drops the pressure down to 973! That means the storm is very deep. The main part of the storm is Sunday night into Monday, but lingers into Tuesday in the mountains. One factor that may give even more snow to some places like the Carter Range and Wildcat, is that there is a large storm in Newfoundland that will block this storm, that will mean it bombs into the Gulf of Maine and then sits there and rotates back into NH and Maine. Very cold temperatures as well as high wind will be a factor as well. It is a bit early for exact snow amounts as sleet could be a problem in southern areas, but for the central and eastern Whites its looking like a 2 foot storm. The more south you go into Mass and near there the less will fall becauuse of sleet (As its looking now). I would say for most of the foothills and central NH into Maine this may be near a foot or so. Winter is definitly here, and with snow already in the mountains, this will really help this year. May actually get a normal snow year. :) If anyone gets snow amounts, post on here. -Mattl

Chip
11-30-2007, 08:17 AM
Sounds great. We're up there again on Dec 15/16th hiking and skiing.
let it snow, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW !

DrewKnight
11-30-2007, 08:29 AM
Thanks for the analysis, Matt... Jim Roemer of bestskiweather.com (http://www.bestskiweather.com) has been tracking this for a few days, and his early analysis is very similar to yours. Depending on where you are in the mountains, the whisper of "two feet" has been heard.

Bringing home the laptop, and hoping to invoke the Powder Rule on Monday...

By the way, a plug for Roemer: he is remarkably accurate in his ski-weather forecasting. I have been a non-subscribing frequent viewer for a couple years, and the accuracy of his calls has been impressive. This year, I am coughing up the dough for a subscription (a cost neatly offset by the free ski tickets he comps to subscribers anyway).

Waumbek
11-30-2007, 11:06 AM
Yikes. Sounds like it may be time to put the lawn chairs away.

grouseking
11-30-2007, 11:56 AM
These show possible snowfall amounts over time. Kind of for entertainment purposes, but they also give the forecasters an idea.

Partway thru
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif


Updates every day....
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

What's most interesting about this...these models are getting so sophisticated they actually take into account that the Northeast Kingdom of VT and northwest NH is going to get shadowed. You can see it in this map! Really cool!

These maps pump out a lot of snow...and don't show the whole story for Maine either because it doesn't show the whole time. But the stakes are high for this and its going to be a very deep in terms of pressure so the chances some places could be me measuring this in feet! I'm excited? Are you excited?? :)

Orsonab
11-30-2007, 12:03 PM
I'm very excited... so long as it holds off till I get back from my hike on Sunday and I can watch the pretty flakes from my cozy living room.

Does this mean I still have to rake the leaves tomorrow?

skiguy
11-30-2007, 12:48 PM
I'm very excited... so long as it holds off till I get back from my hike on Sunday and I can watch the pretty flakes from my cozy living room.

Does this mean I still have to rake the leaves tomorrow?

Put away the rake and get Psyched (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dv_Kuojv3rA) for Monday. :D

MadRiver
11-30-2007, 01:25 PM
Put away the rake and get Psyched (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dv_Kuojv3rA) for Monday. :D

I hope they were his rock skies.

sardog1
11-30-2007, 01:36 PM
Time to wax those boards:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
231 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007
. . .
SUNDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO GET INTERESTING FOR
US. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT 2 TO 3 DAYS OUT...BUT THE SYSTEM
DEFINITELY LOOK LIKE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT FOR THE WHOLE
REGION. AT 00Z MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER LAKE
HURON WITH AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY
12Z MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING NEAR LONG ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 500MB WAVE
CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REALLY START TO SLOW DOWN AND WRAP UP. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS AN ALL SNOW SYSTEM...EVEN ALONG THE COAST. AT
18Z MONDAY THE SECONDARY LOW WILL HAVE FULLY DEVELOPED NEAR CAPE
COD...WITH THE 500MB LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AT 00Z TUESDAY OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE...MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY 06Z TUESDAY AS SNOW BEGINS TO
END ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A
PROLONGED EVENT OVER THE COURSE OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE A BIT PREMATURE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE 6 TO 10
INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AGAIN...THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON AMOUNTS.

Yee haw!

Mattl
11-30-2007, 02:30 PM
This storm is looking better and better. Since gray Maine already posted 6-10 3 days out, it means they are concerned and they are covering their butt till it happends. Its rare for them to post possible amounts this far in advance. Get ready for the amounts forecast to go much higher in the next day or so. -Mattl

king tut
11-30-2007, 06:28 PM
Damn! I am psyched for this! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

P.S. - Beware of the Roemer, I tracked his "forecasts" on different ski websites for a few years. 90 % of the time, his forecasts for accumulations were grossly exaggerated. It appears he is being paid by The MAN at the ski resorts to forecast HUGE storms, so people wil buy more ski tickets and spend more money. Follow the weather channel or local forecasts, don't give money to a fraud. He's probably predicting 6-7 feet of snow already.

It's white fluffy time!!

Dr. Dasypodidae
11-30-2007, 10:47 PM
P.S. - Beware of the Roemer, I tracked his "forecasts" on different ski websites for a few years. 90 % of the time, his forecasts for accumulations were grossly exaggerated. It appears he is being paid by The MAN at the ski resorts to forecast HUGE storms, so people wil buy more ski tickets and spend more money. Follow the weather channel or local forecasts, don't give money to a fraud. He's probably predicting 6-7 feet of snow already.


In defense of Jim Roemer, I would not call him any more of a fraud than most other TV weather forecasters, such as in Boston for example, where it is common practice to exaggerate storms to increase TV viewership. Roemer does have a real meteorology degree (with minor in physics) from Lyndon State (Lyndonville, VT, which is where you get a meteorology degree in Vermont, as opposed to UVM), unlike the majority of the local TV weather forecasters. And, Jim Roemer is using much of the same government met data (primarily NOAA) that other commercial and non-commercial weather forecasters use (including, for example, the AccuWeather, the Weather Channel, and local radio and TV stations). Nevertheless, there usually remains a lot of variance in the computer models for predicting storm tracks, intensity, etc., so it would hardly benefit him to err on the side of exaggeration over and over again (90%? that is really hard to believe), as why would ski areas wish to answer to constant grumbling from disappointed skiers.

grouseking
11-30-2007, 11:00 PM
The computer model I posted above updates so you it actually looks different from what I posted earlier. Now it shows that the Whites are in more of a larger swath of snow. Actually it shows a larger area of New England under 18-20 inch accumulations. Good stuff.

Kevin Rooney
11-30-2007, 11:08 PM
If you're interested in an accurate weather forecast, it's really tough to beat these guys. (http://www.eotsweb.org/forecasts.php) Plus, they give the recreational forecast, so you can tell what it's likely to be like at 4 & 6K'. Won't help you much if you're looking for coastal weather, but if it's the Whites, Greens or ADKs, it's usually accurate. And, you can hear it in VPR at regular intervals.

Cath
12-01-2007, 06:47 AM
Kevin ~ It's time for you & Brutie to come home

king tut
12-01-2007, 08:49 AM
Most forecasters pump up their storm totals, so that people will be concerned and scared and tune in to watch their weather report. I lived in Maine for a long time, and I really liked WCSH6 for news, but they have "storm center" coverage every time there is more than an inch of snow predicted to fall. It comes complete with ominous music and stern faced forecasters and reporters telling the viewers how dire the situation is.

Or as was the case for Dr Snow, he was being paid by American Ski Corporation to forecast monster snow storms on a weekly basis to draw more skiiers to the mountains. Someone on the Sugarloaf chat website actually tracked the forecast totals versus the actual totals of each storm, and put all the data together. If I recall correctly, his forecasts only panned out around 15-20 % of the time at most. And this is with the ski areas "measuring" their snowfalls normally at the highest point on the mountain in the biggest snow drift. I do not doubt that these forecasters have degrees, we just live in an age where economic incentives outweigh truth. Viewers are more apt to tune into the station predicting the biggest storms, because they want to be prepared and safe for when "the big one" comes. I am not knocking the credentials of any meteorologist, I just think it is a good idea to know who is paying them....

bigmoose
12-01-2007, 09:20 AM
As we in the TV news business know, "fear sells."

grouseking
12-01-2007, 10:34 AM
As we in the TV news business know, "fear sells."


Yea. I just want to reiterate that the computer model I posted is for guidance only and shouldn't be taken as the the be all end all. There is a really good chance northern MA isn't going to end up with 18-20 inches out of this...A few select areas where the heavy snow band sets up will pick up 18 inches, but not all of central New England.

grouseking

rocket21
12-01-2007, 03:21 PM
While most ski areas certainly inflate snowfall totals, do remember two issues regarding normal weather forecasts - a) most of the stuff you see online is computer generated and not necessarily accurate and b) forecasters tend to overhype to cover their butts, as lives are literally at risk (such as school districts deciding whether or not to keep the busses home).

If you want accurate forecasts, befriend a meteorologist. If you want really accurate forecasts, befriend two :)

DrewKnight
12-01-2007, 10:07 PM
P.S. - Beware of the Roemer, I tracked his "forecasts" on different ski websites for a few years. 90 % of the time, his forecasts for accumulations were grossly exaggerated.

I would agree... Dr. Weather goes a little overboard on the accumulation estimates sometimes. Last night, he called for 2-5" in Waterville Valley. We had about 1" of fresh, well-blown by a strong wind. But he is (in my anecdotal, but fairly thorough analysis) pretty accurate in his calls for precip, in any direction. If he says it's going to snow, even a week out, he tends to hit it. And if he says it's going to rain, sleet, ice, etc., well, that tends to be the way it plays. I would say he is directionally right most of the time (for the mountains, more than any other outlet), and fairly often, spot-on in his calls. He nailed virtually all of last season's major weather trends right on, and I had several (smarter than me) friends who were able to plan ahead and ski the Valentine's Day storm last winter on the strength of a Roemer call, while I spent the day on conference calls from my bedroom, watching pepper-grain dots (said friends) storming up down True Grit and Lower Bobby's.

Can you believe everything he says? Nope, it's about equal parts black art and science. But he does a remarkable job of hitting the quirks of mountain weather, over the couple years I have been following his forecasts.

It's also worthy of note that his forecasts on ASC sites were, no doubt, 'filtered' through their web people. What he said, and how it was posted, were probably more than loosely related... but the latitude there is considerable. Right now, BestSkiWeather is calling for "1 to 2 feet" in central NH and the lower Whites, and possibly more north. That could easily be reported as 2 feet coming... and if it came in at 11", Roemer looks the fool. Me, I'll take the 11" and plan to work from home on Monday, hoping for some early lunch runs.

peakbagger
12-02-2007, 07:12 AM
Russ Murley who is an independent weather forecaster on several regional radio stations (and occasionally a weekend fill in on WMTW) tends to have the best regional forecasts that dont overhype. I suspect that is one of the reasons that he doesnt do TV full time ;)

adamiata
12-02-2007, 07:51 AM
Gotta watch out for that upslope stuff. It's a killer. ;)

forestgnome
12-02-2007, 04:14 PM
Very calm in the s.e. White Mtns. today. Scary looking clouds seen before sunset. Sudden heavy dump of sleet for about 30 seconds, about a half hour ago, completely calm since then. Firewood is ready and winter lager is on the deck.

rup
12-02-2007, 04:20 PM
Where did you find those maps? url??

Got an entire 2" in NJ. Turn to rain tonite.

Hunter
12-02-2007, 06:47 PM
Wood stacked, snow shoes out, new snow blower with a son old enough to run it

Let it snow till Saturday!

NewHampshire
12-02-2007, 07:26 PM
What's an Upslope!? :eek:

Brian

Bobby
12-02-2007, 07:54 PM
Snowing in Boston, some is sticking. Supposed to change to rain at some point.

Kevin Rooney
12-02-2007, 08:36 PM
Just for grins, I've copied the forecast put out by "Eye on the Sky" - Mark Breen and Steve Maleski from the Fairbanks Museum in St. J on Sunday morning. They don't hype the weather - it's factual and accurate. It will be curious to compare their prognostication skills with those of the TV types...

Their forecast is:

December 02, 2007
The forecast for all of Vermont, and adjoining New Hampshire, New York, Quebec, and Massachusetts:

WINTER STORM WARNING ALL OF VT AND N�N NY 4pm Sunday-1 am Tuesday
WINTER STORM WARNING ALL OF NH 1 a.m. Monday -7 a.m. Tuesday
SNOWFALL WARNING S�N QUEBEC beginning this PM

TODAY: Thickening clouds. Light snow likely developing by evening to the Connecticut River. Highs 18-27. Wind light and variable east of the Greens, and SE 5-10 mph over and west of the Greens. Snow accumulation by evening T-2��greatest over the Adirondacks.

TONIGHT: Snow. May be moderate or heavy at times, and will mix with sleet or freezing rain towards morning near the Massachusetts border northwestward into the central Adirondacks. Temperatures steady 18-28.

MONDAY: Snow north of RT 4, may mix with sleet for a time as far north as a Burlington-Montpelier-St. Johnsbury line. South of Rt 4�Snow and sleet early, possibly mixed for a time with freezing rain near the Massachusetts border. Precipitation may be heavy at times region-wide early, and over NH and eastern Vermont during the PM. Precipitation changing to all snow east of the Greens and to snow showers west of the Greens by afternoon. Highs 25-31. Total accumulation by Monday evening: 4-8� southern valleys, 6-12� north, and southern mountains.

MONDAY NT: Snow showers likely southwest Vermont and adjacent NY. Snow tapering to snow showers southeast Vermont and southern NH. Snow north�may be heavy at times north-central and northeast Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and the eastern Townships. Lows 16-22.

TUESDAY: Snow tapering to snow showers northeast. Snow showers likely northwest, and southern mountains. Scattered snow showers southern valleys. Highs ranging through the 20s. Total storm accumulation: 5-10� southern valleys; 8-14� southern mountains; 8-12� northern valleys; and 12-18� northern mountains.
Extended forecast: To follow by midday.

SIGNIFICANT/HAZARDOUS WEATHER:
A major winter storm will affect us later tonight through Tuesday morning. Light snow will spread east to New Hampshire by dark, but heavier precipitation will hold off until shortly before midnight. A general slug of moderate to heavy precip will occur through Monday mid-morning, with the emphasis then gradually shifting to the eastern half of Vermont and all of NH tomorrow afternoon, then to northeast VT, the eastern Townships, and northern NH Monday night into Tuesday morning. Expected storm totals are contained in the detailed forecast.

grouseking
12-03-2007, 12:01 AM
Just for grins, I've copied the forecast put out by "Eye on the Sky" - Mark Breen and Steve Maleski from the Fairbanks Museum in St. J on Sunday morning. They don't hype the weather - it's factual and accurate. It will be curious to compare their prognostication skills with those of the TV types...

Their forecast is:

December 02, 2007
The forecast for all of Vermont, and adjoining New Hampshire, New York, Quebec, and Massachusetts:

WINTER STORM WARNING ALL OF VT AND N�N NY 4pm Sunday-1 am Tuesday
WINTER STORM WARNING ALL OF NH 1 a.m. Monday -7 a.m. Tuesday
SNOWFALL WARNING S�N QUEBEC beginning this PM

TODAY: Thickening clouds. Light snow likely developing by evening to the Connecticut River. Highs 18-27. Wind light and variable east of the Greens, and SE 5-10 mph over and west of the Greens. Snow accumulation by evening T-2��greatest over the Adirondacks.

TONIGHT: Snow. May be moderate or heavy at times, and will mix with sleet or freezing rain towards morning near the Massachusetts border northwestward into the central Adirondacks. Temperatures steady 18-28.

MONDAY: Snow north of RT 4, may mix with sleet for a time as far north as a Burlington-Montpelier-St. Johnsbury line. South of Rt 4�Snow and sleet early, possibly mixed for a time with freezing rain near the Massachusetts border. Precipitation may be heavy at times region-wide early, and over NH and eastern Vermont during the PM. Precipitation changing to all snow east of the Greens and to snow showers west of the Greens by afternoon. Highs 25-31. Total accumulation by Monday evening: 4-8� southern valleys, 6-12� north, and southern mountains.

MONDAY NT: Snow showers likely southwest Vermont and adjacent NY. Snow tapering to snow showers southeast Vermont and southern NH. Snow north�may be heavy at times north-central and northeast Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and the eastern Townships. Lows 16-22.

TUESDAY: Snow tapering to snow showers northeast. Snow showers likely northwest, and southern mountains. Scattered snow showers southern valleys. Highs ranging through the 20s. Total storm accumulation: 5-10� southern valleys; 8-14� southern mountains; 8-12� northern valleys; and 12-18� northern mountains.
Extended forecast: To follow by midday.

SIGNIFICANT/HAZARDOUS WEATHER:
A major winter storm will affect us later tonight through Tuesday morning. Light snow will spread east to New Hampshire by dark, but heavier precipitation will hold off until shortly before midnight. A general slug of moderate to heavy precip will occur through Monday mid-morning, with the emphasis then gradually shifting to the eastern half of Vermont and all of NH tomorrow afternoon, then to northeast VT, the eastern Townships, and northern NH Monday night into Tuesday morning. Expected storm totals are contained in the detailed forecast.

I agree with this forecast. Steve Moleski is a damn good meteorologist, he has to be...forecasting up in the northeast kingdom. Sleeting here in Hanover right now. SHould flip over to plain snow after dawn, 6-10 inches at most in the valley. Jackpots in the mtns, where you don't get shadowed.

1:45am Edit...spoke too soon...changed over to snow now!! Icy snow, but snow nonetheless. I think we're golden. Keepin my fingers crossed....

grouseking

forestgnome
12-03-2007, 06:16 AM
4" - 5" in Madison, very small flakes with low moisture content, out of the southeast.

happy trails :)

Waumbek
12-03-2007, 06:50 AM
3-4" of light to moderate snowfall in Franconia @ 1200' overnight, also small flakes. But it has started to crank up now with bands of heavier snow, and VPR's EOTS (Eye on the Sky) is calling for upwards of a foot or more in the western Whites by the time it's all done. Southeastern NH may get even more, which has been the pattern over the last year.

bikehikeskifish
12-03-2007, 06:51 AM
There is an honest 4" on my deck in Bedford NH (just west of Manchester.)

Tim

DrewKnight
12-03-2007, 07:59 AM
Very fine snow, has eased up in the last hour. Forecasters all calling for things to intensify again this afternoon.

Need to convince the kids to go test out their cross-country skis this AM so I can get some work done, then sneak out and take a few runs myself.

dentonfabrics
12-03-2007, 08:21 AM
5-6" in Canterbury, just north of Concord NH. Light fluffy stuff, easy shoveling. Only light snowfall now. Getting the snowshoes ready for a walk in the woods later.

sardog1
12-03-2007, 09:11 AM
Six inches of slightly moist snow in Milton, NH so far -- clumps easily to boot soles, aka excellent snow for a base! No sleet or rain so far. Temp is only 23 degrees F, so hopes are high here!

MichaelJ
12-03-2007, 09:39 AM
4" of wet, heavy stuff here in Acton, and what feels like freezing rain coming down.

Mohamed Ellozy
12-03-2007, 10:26 AM
5-6" in Canterbury, just north of Concord NH. Light fluffy stuff, easy shoveling. Only light snowfall now. Getting the snowshoes ready for a walk in the woods later.Basically the same here, except that I am back from an hour's snowshoeing in the local woods :D. A few flakes still drifting down, but looks like the "storm" is over ... about 6" or less here.

weatherman
12-03-2007, 10:30 AM
1" of icy granulated slop just east of Worcester. We seem to be "dry slot central" the past few years. Only about 0.3" of melted at my house, when they were predicting about .8-1 inch. Still hasn't gone above freezing though.

Weatherman

Mattl
12-03-2007, 12:22 PM
The storm is going to continue to wraparound and bomb off the coast. The mountains VT, NH, and ME will continue with snow until Tuesday night or so. Expect several areas with two feet or so out of this. Here in Lebanon NH we have 8.5 and seem to be on the edge of the rotating bands. Mountains are taking the brunt of this one, like most cases. The secondary low ended up developing much farther offshore so south of the mountains there was less then forecast. One of the more interesting or strange storms I have seen. -Mattl

skiguy
12-03-2007, 01:10 PM
and then bring on the upslope...right Matt!!! :D

NH_Mtn_Hiker
12-03-2007, 01:41 PM
...bomb off the coast. Thank Goodness, I thought I'd have to spend the day in a bomb shelter. By the way Matt, is that an official meteorological term? :rolleyes:


One of the more interesting or strange storms I have seen. I don't see what's so interesting or strange about several inches of snow in December. :confused:

carole
12-03-2007, 02:54 PM
Major Snow Storm coming
I love it when 'Major' get a good snow storm :D

Toe Cozy
12-03-2007, 04:25 PM
wow...the dude is excited about weather and watching it change and fluctuate and appreciating it's unpredictability and everyone starts teasing the poor guy. Sheesh...can't get a break around here!!! Must be a case of the Monday's ;) ;) :D

Mattl: thanks for your unbounded enthusiasm over snow and weather systems.

Here in Springfield VT we have about 8-9" of not light but not super heavy snow. A little more, like 1", predicted over the next 24 hours. So that's the story here.

grouseking
12-03-2007, 04:41 PM
By the way Matt, is that an official meteorological term? :rolleyes:

I don't see what's so interesting or strange about several inches of snow in December. :confused:

The terms cyclogenesis and bombogenesis are used pretty interchangably...I've seen them both. Yes, its an accepted scientific term. Means that the low pressure deepens a whole heck of a lot in a short period of time. (can't remember how much) Trouble with this storm, it deepened a little late...so the snow didn't really get going till later. Thats why Maine and the northeeastern mtns are getting the most snow. Springfield VT got a lot of snow because last night there was heavy warm air advection snow that added up fast, plus a pretty copnsistent band of moderate snow today. Lucky. Here in Hanover, a good 8 inches I think. I'll have to measure later.

And yes, bring on the upslope. :)

skiguy
12-03-2007, 05:02 PM
And yes, bring on the upslope. :)

I live on a Small Hill that rises above a Lake about 300 feet. There is always, like tonight more snow at my house than in the Valley by the Lake. I have always wondered why this is . Thanks to you guys I think I understand that I've got a local Upslope (http://www.usatoday.com/weather/tg/wupslope/wupslope.htm?loc=interstitialskip) effect. Is it unreasonable to think also that when the lake is unfrozen as it is right now that it too could be feeding the Added Snow that I see here at my house only Two Miles from the Lake?

grouseking
12-03-2007, 05:24 PM
I live on a Small Hill that rises above a Lake about 300 feet. There is always, like tonight more snow at my house than in the Valley by the Lake. I have always wondered why this is . Thanks to you guys I think I understand that I've got a local Upslope (http://www.usatoday.com/weather/tg/wupslope/wupslope.htm?loc=interstitialskip) effect. Is it unreasonable to think also that when the lake is unfrozen as it is right now that it too could be feeding the Added Snow that I see here at my house only Two Miles from the Lake?


There might be a small enhanced snow from upslope, but I think your extra snow is from your 300 feet of higher elevation. Its amazing what a couple hundred feet of elevation can do. During the APril 15th storm, Lebanon had about an inch on slush down in the valley at 600 feet. At 1000 feet, there was 7 inches of heavy wet snow and the power lines were threatening to come down. Thankfully it changed to rain. Further north across Lyme, Canaan, Enfield area, 12-24 inches of sloppy, wet, elevation snow fell above 1500 feet, causing major power outages, and tree damage. You should see the damage. Its still remarkable to look at the areas that had to be cut down. So I'd be willing to bet its more the elevation that plays a factor in your heavier snows than upslope.

grouseking

skiguy
12-03-2007, 05:36 PM
There might be a small enhanced snow from upslope, but I think your extra snow is from your 300 feet of higher elevation. Its amazing what a couple hundred feet of elevation can do. During the APril 15th storm, Lebanon had about an inch on slush down in the valley at 600 feet. At 1000 feet, there was 7 inches of heavy wet snow and the power lines were threatening to come down. Thankfully it changed to rain. Further north across Lyme, Canaan, Enfield area, 12-24 inches of sloppy, wet, elevation snow fell above 1500 feet, causing major power outages, and tree damage. You should see the damage. Its still remarkable to look at the areas that had to be cut down. So I'd be willing to bet its more the elevation that plays a factor in your heavier snows than upslope.

grouseking

Thanks for the response. I have a friend whom lives in Sharon,Vt. up the road from Norwich which is not too far from you. I have seen time and again what the elavation change there can do. I guess I was hoping that I might have some unusual Lake Effect pattern going on that NOAA or somebody else might be interested in. :D By the way still snowing here in Conway. :)

king tut
12-03-2007, 06:30 PM
2 or 3 inches in Burlington VT after the 8-12 prediction. Maybe the rest will fall tonight, I remain skeptical. I believe the forecasters here over-hyped the storm so that every minivan in front of me would drive 15 miles an hour below the speed limit today. School was cancelled, things shut down, i thought for a moment I was living in South Carolina. Perhaps people are unaware it is winter...

skiguy
12-03-2007, 07:21 PM
2 or 3 inches in Burlington VT after the 8-12 prediction. Maybe the rest will fall tonight, I remain skeptical. I believe the forecasters here over-hyped the storm so that every minivan in front of me would drive 15 miles an hour below the speed limit today. School was cancelled, things shut down, i thought for a moment I was living in South Carolina. Perhaps people are unaware it is winter...

look at it this way.....it makes it easier too get to the pow with the rest out of the way (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KAN6UCVGXc)

DrewKnight
12-03-2007, 07:23 PM
Snowed lightly to moderately all day, though it never got to the howling nor'easter stage. Just walked our elderly greyhound (who views all frozen precip with deep disdain) and found an undisturbed patch to measure... just about a foot and still snowing lightly. This one has been all about duration, and it sounds like we may get a few more inches before end of day tomorrow.

A friend reported good (untracked) conditions out on the Livermore Road when he went for some headlamp-enhanced cross country skiing this evening. If you like snow, this weekend ought to be a treat.

bikehikeskifish
12-03-2007, 07:28 PM
Is it the kind of snow that will groom into a proper base? A foot of powder compresses to about an inch or two under a sno cat...

Tim

(I like Livermore Road with nice crispy corduroy.)

Waumbek
12-03-2007, 10:10 PM
Thank Goodness, I thought I'd have to spend the day in a bomb shelter. By the way Matt, is that an official meteorological term? :rolleyes:

Google "weather bombs" and "bombogenesis" with its associated verbs, "bomb out," "bomb off," for this "wintercane" phenomenon.

rocket21
12-03-2007, 11:16 PM
It appears to be mostly done up here in Tamworth and we picked up somewhere around a foot. Somewhat fluffly, but still a moisture content to it (not wet slop though). Slippery roads!

forestgnome
12-04-2007, 06:13 AM
12" in Madison.

Waumbek
12-04-2007, 06:28 AM
Cannon Mountain (4100') is reporting 17-18" so far since Sunday; it's still snowing and will top out at about 2' when it's all over tomorrow.

Lost River (112, Kinsman Notch) called in 14" to VPR's EOTS this morning. Still snowing.

Franconia valley area has 8-12"; still snowing with another 2-4" expected by the end of today.

Beautiful light fluff that will compress quickly.

skibones
12-04-2007, 07:26 AM
Snowed lightly to moderately all day, though it never got to the howling nor'easter stage. Just walked our elderly greyhound (who views all frozen precip with deep disdain) and found an undisturbed patch to measure... just about a foot and still snowing lightly. This one has been all about duration, and it sounds like we may get a few more inches before end of day tomorrow.

A friend reported good (untracked) conditions out on the Livermore Road when he went for some headlamp-enhanced cross country skiing this evening. If you like snow, this weekend ought to be a treat.


Saw those ski tracks yesterday and was wondering what the coverage was like. Today it's groomed up Tripoli-haven't checked WV X-C report yet. Maybe give it a try this afternoon after alpine on the hill this morning!
Skibones

Mohamed Ellozy
12-04-2007, 07:35 AM
A friend reported good (untracked) conditions out on the Livermore Road when he went for some headlamp-enhanced cross country skiing this evening. If you like snow, this weekend ought to be a treat.Not waiting for the weekend, plan to go snowshoeing on one of the trails off Greeley Ponds trail a bit later this morning.

Right now the temp is 19 degrees in Plymouth, and at this time of the year temps below 20 still seem awfully cold :( After a month or so temps around 20 will seem downright balmy :D

Sheomet
12-04-2007, 11:20 AM
15" in Orono, Me

Danielle
12-04-2007, 01:14 PM
We got about 8" here on the coast of Maine. It's still snowing lightly, but probably won't add much to the total. I went for a nice xc ski in the woods near our house this morning before work. It was great to be out--the pine trees were all covered with snow and it felt like a winter wonderland. Can't wait to get in some more skiing this weekend! Yeah winter :D

giggy
12-04-2007, 01:44 PM
One inch of frozen slush on the MA/RI border, I postholed my yard last night taking out the trash - and now its frozen postholes. Prolly best not to hike my yard for sometime, someone could get hurt.

gaiagirl
12-04-2007, 02:03 PM
Forestgnome took my answer. :) Looks to be about the same 10 miles in any direction. Jackson seems to have a bit more, as it almost always does.

grouseking
12-04-2007, 04:09 PM
Well I was talking about it last night...

It was in full force today.

Down in Hanover right at the Ct valley there was little if any snow falling when I woke up this morning.
http://grouseking.phanfare.com/show/external/506830/708839/32951006/file.jpg

Then, as we drove across Rt 25A thru Orford, the snow really began to pick up in intensity.
http://grouseking.phanfare.com/show/external/506830/708839/32951015/file.jpg

After I gave my presentations at Plymouth State students, I took some shots of the southern Whites. There was "downsloping" going on in Plymouth, to the max. The sun was trying to come out.
http://grouseking.phanfare.com/show/external/506830/708839/32951050/file.jpg

And then, on the way home, going back up in elevation, the snow picked right up again, and the visibility was down under 1/2 mile. Very dynamic day indeed. I'm curious as to how much upslope that some of you make fun of....that we got. :)

http://grouseking.phanfare.com/show/external/506830/708839/32951088/file.jpg

One more upslope picture, from Mt Pierce back in early March of 2006. Crawford Notch had 19 inches of upslope snow showers that day. The top of Pierce had over 30. It was incredible.... looked like marshmallow fluff.

http://grouseking.phanfare.com/show/external/156102/195467/9047608/file.jpg

grouseking

forestgnome
12-04-2007, 05:39 PM
Excellent post and pictures, Grouseking!

happy trails :)

TDawg
12-04-2007, 06:30 PM
Rode at Jay Peak, VT today.

It snowed all day (heavy at times) and still going. 30" so far and I believe in every inch, can you say face-shots? Beaver Pond glade and beyond was incredible (hiking access only from the Red Quad!!) It was the most snow I've ever had the pleasure to rip on the board. :)

Also, at five-thirty coming home, it was snowing pretty good in Franconia Notch. Cannon should be pretty sweet tomorrow.

Jay Peak, 12/4/07...

Andre's Paradise
http://inlinethumb02.webshots.com/30465/2309681210060201085S500x500Q85.jpg (http://sports.webshots.com/photo/2309681210060201085FUuHZx)
Drowning in pow
http://inlinethumb64.webshots.com/31935/2808899550060201085S500x500Q85.jpg (http://sports.webshots.com/photo/2808899550060201085ezbTii)

skiguy
12-04-2007, 07:12 PM
All I gotta say Grousking is I'm a Believer (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B17W_HT3A9E) and T Dawg welcome to the Temple of Powder (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Xz1yb0e9FY) :D

TMax
12-04-2007, 07:35 PM
One inch of frozen slush on the MA/RI border, I postholed my yard last night taking out the trash - and now its frozen postholes. Prolly best not to hike my yard for sometime, someone could get hurt.
Good one Giggy!:D

In the Utica area we got about 6-8 inches but with some sleet/freezing rain in between the snow. It's not snowshoeing conditions in my yard either!

Here's an interesting snow depth site (http://www.weatherstreet.com/local_forecast_files/Snow-Depth-US.htm) I found.

king tut
12-04-2007, 08:56 PM
Rode at Jay Peak, VT today.

It snowed all day (heavy at times) and still going. 30" so far and I believe in every inch, can you say face-shots? Beaver Pond glade and beyond was incredible (hiking access only from the Red Quad!!) It was the most snow I've ever had the pleasure to rip on the board. :)

I couple pics when I get them loaded up...

Also, at five-thirty coming home, it was snowing pretty good in Franconia Notch. Cannon should be pretty sweet tomorrow.

That's crazy! I think I will have to ditch work and go up there in the next few days. Jay Peak is awesome. Funny to think that a little over an hour south, instead of 30 inches, we got about 3 or 4...

David Metsky
12-04-2007, 09:00 PM
It snowed all day (heavy at times) and still going. 30" so far and I believe in every inch, can you say face-shots? Beaver Pond glade and beyond was incredible (hiking access only from the Red Quad!!) It was the most snow I've ever had the pleasure to rip on the board. :)
Argh, you're killing me. I was supposed to go up to Jay for the NET Telefest this weekend but family events mean I'm headed to Florida instead. 30" of fresh on the first week of January, in time for the Telefest - I'm dyin' here.

Grumble, grumble.

Toe Cozy
12-04-2007, 09:11 PM
Argh, you're killing me. I was supposed to go up to Jay for the NET Telefest this weekend but family events mean I'm headed to Florida instead. 30" of fresh on the first week of January, in time for the Telefest - I'm dyin' here.

Grumble, grumble.

Wow..my condolences. I think there is something wrong in the universe for this to be happening to you, Dave. Sorry. Also...better check your calendar.
;)

skiguy
12-05-2007, 07:10 AM
I'm dyin' here.


You really do sound like you might be really ill....in fact to ill to get on a plane to Florida.......but if I see you at the Pump House I'm not saying anything :)

Mattl
12-05-2007, 07:24 AM
Be nice if we got actual reports from a lot of mountains of mystery in the White Mountains we don't get snow reports from. There has always been a small rivalry between northern Greens and Whites. I think upslope areas like the Twinway between Guyot and South Twin and Pierce area could challenge Jay's amounts :) See in NH we only have a few ski areas on our mountains so don't get the entire picture..-Mattl

DrewKnight
12-05-2007, 07:41 AM
Today it's groomed up Tripoli-haven't checked WV X-C report yet...

Speaking of that groomer... I had kind of an eerie moment yesterday morning when I was getting dressed for work about 5:30am. I was standing close to the mostly-snow-covered skylight in our bedroom when I saw a super-bright glow coming toward me through the snow-covered trees -- this is in the valley below our condo, where I have never seen any lights before. It got closer and brighter and I was actually kind of anxious until I figured out that it was the XC grooming cat, out for its first run of the season. A couple of moments later it roared by the back of our complex much closer than I realized the trail actually ran.

On the very bright side, it wasn't an alien space ship come to abduct me again.

skiguy
12-05-2007, 08:45 AM
On the very bright side, it wasn't an alien space ship come to abduct me again.

You might want to rethink that. I hear they get upslope effects of celestial proportions. I hear that These (http://www.evogear.com/skis/k2-pontoon-2007.aspx) are standard equipment on Powder days beyond this solar system ;)

bikehikeskifish
12-05-2007, 09:44 AM
So DrewKnight (or anyone else who lives in or near WV) -- How are the XC groomed trails looking? WV advertises 32Kms open and a 4-5" base (12-14" in the woods) with early-season conditions. I don't mind an occasional scratch or hop to avoid a rock, but even with rock skis I don't want to resurface them in a single day's skiing... Oddly enough, Livermore Road is not open for skiing :confused: Might go Saturday.

Thx,
Tim

grouseking
12-05-2007, 11:07 AM
http://www.outdoors.org/recreation/tripplanner/go/backcountry-weather.cfm

Lonesome Lake has 30 inches at the stake. Let's go snowshoeing. :-D

giggy
12-05-2007, 11:10 AM
http://www.outdoors.org/recreation/tripplanner/go/backcountry-weather.cfm

Lonesome Lake has 30 inches at the stake. Let's go snowshoeing. :-D


screw that - tucks trail is packed

DrewKnight
12-05-2007, 11:56 AM
So DrewKnight (or anyone else who lives in or near WV) -- How are the XC groomed trails looking?

Tim, I have been down in Marlborough, Mass since yesterday AM -- work-induced exile -- but I will check tonight and let you know. There was a solid 14" on the ground when I left yesterday AM, and it has been snowing lightly off and on since. I would guess that 4 or 5 inches is pretty consistent cover, but I will see what I can see as I leave town tomorrow AM via the Tripoli Road. The stuff they're showing open is all pretty smooth terrain, for what it's worth.

grouseking
12-05-2007, 11:59 AM
screw that - tucks trail is packed


Have fun on tucks.

I'll be snowshoeing elsewhere. :)

grouseking

bikehikeskifish
12-05-2007, 12:05 PM
The stuff they're showing open is all pretty smooth terrain, for what it's worth.

I know - I've been skiing there for 12 years :) In the past, however, 4-5" if soft can get crappy rather quickly. If it is wet and freezes, then it will last.

I have found that usually the conditions are reported fairly. I have rock skis. If they legitimately opened 32Ks then there is probably some decent skiing to be had. What 'concerns' me is that Livermore Road isn't opened and that's usually one of the first ones. It could be insufficient cover around the old gravel pit -- the one problem area. Maybe times I've taken skis off to get by that and found great conditions above -- all the way up and around Cascade Brook.

Tim

skiguy
12-05-2007, 12:52 PM
screw that - tucks trail is packed

The word is left of left is the place to be.

skibones
12-05-2007, 05:22 PM
So DrewKnight (or anyone else who lives in or near WV) -- How are the XC groomed trails looking? WV advertises 32Kms open and a 4-5" base (12-14" in the woods) with early-season conditions. I don't mind an occasional scratch or hop to avoid a rock, but even with rock skis I don't want to resurface them in a single day's skiing... Oddly enough, Livermore Road is not open for skiing :confused: Might go Saturday.

Thx,
Tim


Last night at about 6pm when I was taking my dogs out, two friends passed the house with snowshoes in their hands. They snowshoed up to the kettles. They said not much was groomed. This morning I did see some people going up tripoli road on my way to the mt. and I'm guessing that should be ok. I'm waiting for someone to report back that there are no rocks showing. By the way the mt is in great shape --top to bottom. There was even gate training for the kids doing a slalom race next week.

Mohamed Ellozy
12-05-2007, 07:59 PM
I am a hiker, not a XC skier, but did snowshoe in the WV area yesterday and today (Tue-Wed). The lower part of Livermore Road looks definitely skiable right now (little traffic), as does the Greeley Ponds Trail. However, the snow is shallow; both my poles and my snowshoe crampons hit rocks a few times.

There were at least a half dozen cars at the Depot Camp parking today; I believe that most were skiing the "open" trails. But if many people ski Livermore Road and Greeley Ponds before the weekend they may become rather rough.

DrewKnight
12-06-2007, 07:43 AM
I scanned the visible parts of the trails at 6:30 this morning... cover looked nice and dense on Golf Course loop, Tripoli Road @ West Branch, and both visible sides of Swans where it crosses Tripoli. YMMV, but it was cold (0 degrees) and the forecast is for a little more snow tomorrow, so it is probably a decent bet, especially if you hedge and bring your rock skis.

skibones
12-07-2007, 05:12 AM
I did get out and tried the X-C trails at Waterville Valley. The coverage was great and there are alot of the trails open. The alpine was also good with more trails open and guns still going on the lower terrain.

skiguy
12-10-2007, 07:16 AM
Say matt and grouseking what's your prognosis for the storm on Thursday?

Mattl
12-10-2007, 07:40 AM
I am still looking at models which are wavering on exactly how strong it will be. Monday the mountains are getting decent quick shot of snow 1-4 inches, Tuesday another shot of 2-5 inches and Thursday could be 5-10 inches. It is going to take another day or so to pinpoint strengh of system, could be more, but at this time looks like 5-10. So definitly a lots of chances of accum snow coming. -Mattl

bikehikeskifish
12-10-2007, 07:44 AM
I did get out and tried the X-C trails at Waterville Valley. The coverage was great and there are alot of the trails open. The alpine was also good with more trails open and guns still going on the lower terrain.

XC was really pretty decent for 12/8! Lots of rocks poking up so pick your way carefully in some areas and use your rock skis.

Tim

grouseking
12-10-2007, 11:23 AM
Say matt and grouseking what's your prognosis for the storm on Thursday?


Man I tell ya, so much going on right now!! The mtns picked up 1-4 inches of snow last night, according to the backcountry weather conditions.

http://www.outdoors.org/recreation/tripplanner/go/backcountry-weather.cfm

Two more light to possibly moderate storms coming up this week. Tuesday night snows up north for a couple inches and then a more important storm for Thursday. Too early for exact accumulations, but it might form off the coast, so moisture could be a bit more plentiful. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see a 4-6 incher out of out, could be more, but confidence is low for now... but lets deal with Tuesday's snow before Thursday. :)

BTW, Tuesday nights snow looks to be a mixed bag in southern New England.

grouseking

skiguy
12-10-2007, 11:44 AM
Let's hope that this active pattern continues. These smaller storms and upslope effects are certainly starting to accumulate even in the Valleys.

DrewKnight
12-10-2007, 12:57 PM
The mtns picked up 1-4 inches of snow last night, according to the backcountry weather conditions.

Two inches of fresh powder in Waterville Valley this AM. Everyone I talked to on the mountain all weekend was grinning ear-to-ear and saying, "Can you believe this after last year?"

The controversial Roemer ;) is saying "watch Thursday into Friday" but hasn't gotten specific yet. And that, on top of a couple more fast-moving systems this week that could bring a few quick inches.

king tut
12-10-2007, 06:25 PM
These little storms look great, what a great change from the beginning of last year. Hopefully this one tomorrow night drops a few inches, I'm gonna head out to Jay or Mad River to play on Wednesday!!

skiguy
12-10-2007, 06:42 PM
These little storms look great, what a great change from the beginning of last year. Hopefully this one tomorrow night drops a few inches, I'm gonna head out to Jay or Mad River to play on Wednesday!!

Take me to the River....Drop me in the Powder. Shred on on Dude ;)

skibones
12-11-2007, 05:13 AM
Two inches of fresh powder in Waterville Valley this AM. Everyone I talked to on the mountain all weekend was grinning ear-to-ear and saying, "Can you believe this after last year?"

The controversial Roemer ;) is saying "watch Thursday into Friday" but hasn't gotten specific yet. And that, on top of a couple more fast-moving systems this week that could bring a few quick inches.


Drew is right--it's hard to find someone on the mt without a big grin. The conditions for Dec are great-both alpine and X-C.
Also out of the valley isn't bad for this time if the year. A group of us from WV did a snowshoe hike to Picked Pond off of route 3 in Thornton---tons of snow.Even met friend that was X-C skiing to the pond. Hope mother nature keeps it up.

DrewKnight
12-11-2007, 10:44 AM
Matt, what are you seeing Sunday night into Monday AM? Roemer (BestSkiWeather.com (http://www.bestskiweather.com)) is now calling for probable, significant (foot-plus) northern storm.

He sees later today materializing as several inches of snow (or more) north, with mixed precip south, and Thursday as lighter north and more significant south, but seems particularly excited about prospects for the end of the weekend.

grouseking
12-11-2007, 11:56 AM
Matt, what are you seeing Sunday night into Monday AM? Roemer (BestSkiWeather.com (http://www.bestskiweather.com)) is now calling for probable, significant (foot-plus) northern storm.

He sees later today materializing as several inches of snow (or more) north, with mixed precip south, and Thursday as lighter north and more significant south, but seems particularly excited about prospects for the end of the weekend.


I'll fill in for Matt as he's at work right now. ;) Though sometimes he comes on anyways.

We actually have a three more storms coming, the first coming later this afternoon. Looks to be all snow in the mtns.... a nice 2-4 inches, possibly mixing with a bit of sleet in any valley. Hanover is under a Winter Weather advisiory for a mixed bag of snow sleet and freezing rain....blah.

Then Thursday's storm could be a southern New England special, they may issue winter storm watches for 6 inches or more along the Mass Pike. Still, since its going to be very cold up north, a healthy 2-4, or 3-6 inches of very fluffy snow is possible in the mtns.

Which brings us to Sunday....

One of the latest models brings a storm right off Atlantic City Sunday, and then up to Cape Cod canal towards Monday. If you were to read that face value, its a good run for northern and central New England, and the Adirondacks for big snows, not to mention all the way back towards the Binghamton area.

Obviously I will believe it when I see it, but the storm has been on the charts for days. But we had might as well get through these other moderate storms before the potential "monster" this weekend. In fact, some places in southern New England may get their biggest snow of the year later Thursday.

That is all.

grouseking

king tut
12-12-2007, 04:33 PM
Take me to the River....Drop me in the Powder. Shred on on Dude ;)

I woke up this morning to rain in Burlington VT, looked on the web and saw that Mad River Glen was getting rain too, and also looked at Jay Peak and saw that they got 6 inches of snow. So I headed up to the Kingdom and had an absolutely phenomenal day skiing at Jay. They got at least 6 inches, maybe an inch or two more up top. Fresh powder lines all day, and I took two runs over to the Beaver Pond glade and Andre's Paradise, all the way to the skiiers left side of the mountain, and it was knee deep untouched snow all the way through the glades. Fresh lines everywhere. Absolutely the best day of skiing I have ever had in December or January. The snow in the woods is already waste deep if you take your skis off. All the trails are open, and if these next two storms pan out, the snow will be insanely deep up there.