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View Full Version : Here-We-Go-Again Heavy Snow Warning 2/22-23



Waumbek
02-21-2009, 07:27 PM
NWS has now issued a winter storm warning (not watch) for heavy snow in N. Grafton Co. (Franconia) starting noon Sunday through 6 a.m. Monday with total accumulation 10-16".

DrewKnight
02-21-2009, 08:02 PM
I was just checking all the usual outlets... the different linear snowfall models are all over the map on this one, from 18"+ (http://www.grib2.com/wrf/N-EAST_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gif)) in the southern Whites to the normally-wild GFS (http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_36HR.gif)Snowfall at 4". In the mean time, the recently-conservative Weather.com report has settled on 11 to 18".

Brace yourselves, it's somewhere between nothing and the end of the world as we know it. MattL, what do you say?

Mattl
02-21-2009, 09:22 PM
OK, I almost started this, but I thought I would give someone else a chance. This storm is looking either amazing or disappointing, ill be honest. Heres why, if anyone is on right now at 10:13 pm Sat or anytime tonight, look at www.intellicast.com, the storm is a dinky little upper level low. As the low approaches us, it will do what is called a bombing out in the Gulf of Maine, rapid intensification. From what is a 1-2 inch snowfall in western and south New York state could go to a 24+ storm in a distance of only 50 miles or less. The reason being is that the storm intensifies so fast that it has a sharp cutoff for precip somewhere near Albany New York, where it is barely snowing. The storm goes from a weak clipper to a 980 or so Mil low when it gets to eastern Maine. There could be blizzard conditions from about Conway and the White Mountains though Maine on Sunday night into Monday with snowfall rates of 2-3 inches in mesoscale bands. So for snowfall? If the GFS verifies, it will be a 1-2.5 foot snowstorm from VT to ME, with places like Hermit Lake and the Carters getting 2.5 feet by Tuesday, this includes upslope on the backside. The bad news? The trend this winter has been for storms to hold there primary low too long and not develop as fast off the coast, if this happens then the more west you go, the less snow. Either way, we will get snow, just need to fine tune exactly how much. Either way, I am very optimistic about this storm for the White Mountains though. After this storm, a very up and down March looks in order
-Mattl

grouseking
02-21-2009, 10:51 PM
I'm optimistic too...(for once we agree :D) Only difference is, I am excited for places outside the whites too. The most will be in the mtns, but this is going to be a good thumping north of Concord.

There is going to be mesoscale banding with this storm. Those in the bands will get clocked (think 15+ inches)...in between the bands, less, 8-12.

By the time this storm is over, the mountains will be flooded with snow. Yes, flooded. :eek:

grouseking

Waumbek
02-22-2009, 03:23 AM
The storm warning period for N. Grafton Co. has been extended from noon today to 1 p.m. Monday and snow totals upped to 16-24". Get out there and back early today if you go at all.

Waumbek
02-22-2009, 07:04 AM
It's already snowing and blowing here, although it is predicted to end before the main event gets going. Bagged this morning's plan anyway. There's likely to be a lot of I-93 change-over Feb. break traffic today as one set of tourists leaves, another arrives.

skiguy
02-22-2009, 07:12 AM
Sounds like this one should do a good job of covering things up:)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADSEhAjj8pQ

Stan
02-22-2009, 08:01 AM
Can't seem to equate "winter snow" with "warning" for this website. There must be another term that the weather service can provide, maybe something like, "Whoopie! it's gonna snow!"

Waumbek
02-22-2009, 08:12 AM
Can't seem to equate "winter snow" with "warning" for this website. There must be another term that the weather service can provide, maybe something like, "Whoopie! it's gonna snow!"

NWS's audience is mainly commuters, schools (commuetrs again), and public services, not winter recreationalists.

For more neutral, if not celebratory, language, try the recreational forecast on EOTS: http://www.eotsweb.org/forecasts.php?#part1

For ecstatic language of the "white gold" variety, try any of the ski area or snow mobile websites. Believe the hype if you will, although Cannon reliably reports what is down.

There's something for everyone out there.

Waumbek
02-22-2009, 07:34 PM
Cannon snow update, 2/22:

4 inches of snow as of 7:30pm and still dumping.

Mattl
02-23-2009, 06:21 AM
So far most of the White Mountains has recieved 14-24 inches of snow, with another 3-9 that will fall today through tomorrow, so many areas hitting the 3 ft mark. This combined with the last storm will make for around 50-60 or more inches in 7 days for many places above 2000 feet in the Whites! We recieved about 8 inches here in Lebanon because it was so wet for the first 5 inches. -Mattl

rocket21
02-23-2009, 06:31 AM
I don't really know how much we received here, as the winds really whipped last night, but a good half foot seems to be a reasonable guess.

kevinmac
02-23-2009, 06:33 AM
Glad you folks got a lot up north. All rain in Marlboro, MA except for a dusting of snow last night.

Waumbek
02-23-2009, 06:34 AM
At least 14" here and still snowing & blowing.

Mohamed Ellozy
02-23-2009, 07:03 AM
9" on my deck in Thornton (elevation 700 feet).

Mattl
02-23-2009, 07:19 AM
AMC Backcounty conditions just came out, 30 inches of new snow at Zealand, 20 at Carter, and 18 at Hermit. Add another 3-6 at least with upslope before tomorrow is over. Wow, I can only imagine what bushwhacking is like right now. -Mattl

mfurgal64
02-23-2009, 07:29 AM
I just cleared the driveway with 11" of light snow on the ground in Waterville Valley (elevation 1500'). iIt's still snowing, but the flakes are going sideways. Here's hoping the lifts are turning.

...MikeF

Mohamed Ellozy
02-23-2009, 07:59 AM
In spite of the wet, heavy snow plus winds, not many power outages in NH Electric Coop area, see outage map (http://www.nhec.com/oms.php).

Early this morning my internet cable access (Time-Warner) was down, shortly later it was back up.

peakbagger
02-23-2009, 10:07 AM
19" of powder at the gorham randolph line (1400 feet) as of 11 AM Monday. It really cant be shoveled, bascially pick it up in the air and let the wind catch it . There was 12" at 7 AM. The wind also seems to have picked up. When driving back from Davebears party at about 5 PM yesterday, it was bare tar in Jefferson.

andrewb
02-23-2009, 05:23 PM
AMC Backcounty conditions just came out, 30 inches of new snow at Zealand, 20 at Carter, and 18 at Hermit. Add another 3-6 at least with upslope before tomorrow is over. Wow, I can only imagine what bushwhacking is like right now. -Mattl

I can only imagine that trail breaking is not much different. My Wednesday trip the S pres keeps looking like fewer and fewer peaks will be reached. It may take a superhuman effort just to reach Jackson :):)

bikehikeskifish
02-23-2009, 06:00 PM
12-14" on Gunstock today. Ungroomed too :D

Tim

sardog1
02-23-2009, 06:05 PM
Taken in Rochester, NH, at around 1530 hrs. on Sunday, 2/22:

http://home.metrocast.net/~charlesek/IMG_0016.jpg.

Yes, that is exactly what you think it is, clinging to the gas pump.

Taken fourteen hours later and ten miles farther north:

http://home.metrocast.net/~charlesek/IMG_0401.jpg
A solid 15 inches of mostly dry stuff. We had just a touch of the rain at first, so the result is fabulous. (Right, Rocket? :D )

Waumbek
02-24-2009, 07:09 AM
Tuesday, 2/24, still snowing lightly in Franconia @ 1200'. It's never over 'til it's over.

giggy
02-24-2009, 02:31 PM
need a good rain to take care of this crap - lock it all down hardpack.