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View Full Version : predicting ice on ledges? (specifically Thurs night / Fri morning)



arghman
09-28-2005, 07:58 AM
Righto, the forecast for Berlin, NH, Gorham NH, and Whitefield, NH is pretty much the following:

Thurs afternoon (1-3pm): rain, between 3/4" and 1"
Thurs night: slight chance of rain before 8pm, then clearing with a low of 32-33 degrees F
Fri: partly cloudy, high 57-58 degrees F

This sort of seems like the low temps at higher elevations would be below freezing (esp. since there probably won't be cloud cover), and thus there would be ice on ledges which are below vegetation that is absorbing / releasing water. Am I right in thinking this & wanting to bring Stabilicers? How long do you think it would take for ice to melt if temps are in the 40s?

Specific comments -- am thinking of hiking Moriah / Shelburne Moriah via Carter-Moriah Trail. (haven't gone that way before) Would I be advised to take Stony Brook Trail instead? it doesn't have ledges until you get to the AT; they face east/southeast and would be warmed by the sun more than west or north-facing ledges. (Edit: or perhaps heading up Rattle River to do Shelburne Moriah first.)

(sometimes I think I worry a bit too much about details :rolleyes: )

MichaelJ
09-28-2005, 08:17 AM
If the sun comes out the ledges will melt/dry in no time.

Isn't Thursday night's storm the remains of Rita? If so, the rain itself will be warm and I would be surprised if temps got below freezing. The water itself would prevent that from happening (it's a whole energy thing).

So I would worry about water crossings, but not about icy ledges.

skiguy
09-28-2005, 08:42 AM
I would agree with MichaelJ on this one...probably not neccesary yet, although it's getting close to that time. Stabilicers or Yaktrax will be coming into play soon and for what they weigh they are worth bringing along. As they say it's better to have them and not need them, than to need them and not have them!

Jim lombard
09-28-2005, 09:03 AM
Icing conditions are predicted for Thursday night at the MWO higher summits forecast. But as MJ said they should melt fairly quickly in the morning.

Thursday-Becoming obscured in clouds, a chance of showers early then showers likely in the afternoon. Rain could change to ice pellets or snow in the evening with icing conditions.
Highs: Mid 30s and falling F
Wind: South to Northwest 50-80 mph with higher gusts

arghman
09-28-2005, 04:40 PM
So I would worry about water crossings, but not about icy ledges.Forecast more recently has lowered expected precip amts (0.25-0.5"),lower temps (29 in Berlin for Thu night low), and now 20% chc of some rain Fri afternoon. Is Rattle River Tr of any concern re: crossings? (gotta read up in the WM guide) I'm thinking I should head up that way first, get it out of the way, leave the C-M Tr ledges for later (warmer).