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Thread: Yeah, baby, you know what I like!

  1. #1
    Senior Member sardog1's Avatar
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    Yeah, baby, you know what I like!

    Now that I have your attention:

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
    826 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2007

    .SYNOPSIS...
    LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON A STALLED FRONTAL
    BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE
    EAST OUT TO SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
    FROM QUEBEC WILL SUPPRESS THE FRONT WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF NEW
    ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES
    TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF
    LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...STALLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND. SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW
    ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
    A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT
    OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
    SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

    . . .

    .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
    THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO WILL
    USE HPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME INPUT FROM THE GFS40 FOR THE LONGER
    LONG TERM AND GENERALLY USE THE GFS40 FOR THE SHORTER LONG
    TERM. HAVE INTRODUCED MIXED -SHRA AND -SHSN FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES
    FRIDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY NGT BASED ON H8 TEMPS AND HPC SFC TEMP
    FCSTS. GENERALLY AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOR
    SEAS HAVE LOWERED FROM WNAWAVE GUIDANCE FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY SINCE
    MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR N OCEAN LOW MOVES TO BRING HIGHER
    SEAS THIS FAR N.

    Yes children, -SHSN = snow showers!
    sardog1

    "! kjre Bymann gakk ei stjur og stiv,
    men kom her up og kjenn eit annat Liv!
    kom hit, kom hit, og ver ei daud og lat!
    kom kjenn, hot d'er, som heiter Svevn og Mat,
    og Drykk og Trste og det heile, som
    er Liv og Helse i ein Hovedsum."

    -- Aasmund O. Vinje, "Til Fjells!"

  2. #2
    Senior Member grouseking's Avatar
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    It will snow in the upper mountains this week, I can't wait. And I can't wait to get a taste of it when I go hiking! :-)

    grouseking

  3. #3
    Senior Member forestgnome's Avatar
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    What's more beautiful than a hike through autumn forest with the peaks dusted with fresh snow?!!! Yeehaw!!!

    happy trails

  4. #4
    Senior Member MichaelJ's Avatar
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    *looks longingly across the room at the pair of skis leaning against the wall*
    May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. May your mountains rise into and above the clouds. - Edward Abbey

  5. #5
    Senior Member DougPaul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelJ
    *looks longingly across the room at the pair of skis leaning against the wall*
    *looks even more longingly across the room at the pairs of skis leaning against the wall*

    Doug

    , well, sort of...

  6. #6
    Senior Member sardog1's Avatar
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    Well, there was some waffling since the forecast posted above that I didn't want to share here. I was hoping that the teasers at NWS Gray/Portland would either commit or admit that they were just out to get me all hot and bothered. But now they have simply quit doing their job. Maybe I'll start a weather blog and see if I can get people to send me money for this sort of "analysis":

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
    224 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2007

    .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
    LARGE UPPER VORTEX DEEPENING AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
    UNITED STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
    WILDLY DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
    SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE COAST ON FRIDAY.
    THUS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS IN THE
    THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. PROGRESSION OF
    THESE FEATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXTREMELY
    DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLES POINTING TO A COOL
    AND DRIER AIR MASS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD
    EARLY NEXT WEEK.

    Yes, I am slightly bitter right now.
    sardog1

    "! kjre Bymann gakk ei stjur og stiv,
    men kom her up og kjenn eit annat Liv!
    kom hit, kom hit, og ver ei daud og lat!
    kom kjenn, hot d'er, som heiter Svevn og Mat,
    og Drykk og Trste og det heile, som
    er Liv og Helse i ein Hovedsum."

    -- Aasmund O. Vinje, "Til Fjells!"

  7. #7
    Senior Member Paradox's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DougPaul
    *looks even more longingly across the room at the pairs of skis leaning against the wall*

    Doug

    , well, sort of...
    Looks dejectedly across a sea of dirty teeth to the photo of snowy Mt. Lafayette.
    WNH4K:48/48, SLAT50:50/50, NEHH:100/100, NE115:115/115,
    TW72:60/72, WADK46: 18/46, 52WAV:16/52, Cat35:9/35(39)

  8. #8
    Senior Member sardog1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paradox
    Looks dejectedly across a sea of dirty teeth to the photo of snowy Mt. Lafayette.
    Yeah, what s/he said.

    (Checked your profile, Paradox, trying to find a gender. Didn't find it but did find out why you so aptly described these as "a sea of dirty teeth." )
    sardog1

    "! kjre Bymann gakk ei stjur og stiv,
    men kom her up og kjenn eit annat Liv!
    kom hit, kom hit, og ver ei daud og lat!
    kom kjenn, hot d'er, som heiter Svevn og Mat,
    og Drykk og Trste og det heile, som
    er Liv og Helse i ein Hovedsum."

    -- Aasmund O. Vinje, "Til Fjells!"

  9. #9
    Senior Member grouseking's Avatar
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    I wouldn't worry about the snow yet. Give it a couple days for the computer models to sort things out. By Thursday they should have a good handle. In these patterns there are almost always upslope conditions so hopefully it will be cold enough. Hold on to that!!

    grouseking

  10. #10
    Senior Member grouseking's Avatar
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    Current view from webcam


  11. #11
    Senior Member DougPaul's Avatar
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    Mt Washington 24 hour statistics:

    Maximum Temperature: 41F
    Minimum Temperature: 20F
    Peak Wind Gust: NW 77 mph
    Average Wind Speed: 40.9 mph
    Liquid Precipitation: 1.18"
    Snowfall: 0.2"

    Doug

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by DougPaul
    Mt Washington 24 hour statistics:

    Maximum Temperature: 41F
    Minimum Temperature: 20F
    Peak Wind Gust: NW 77 mph
    Average Wind Speed: 40.9 mph
    Liquid Precipitation: 1.18"
    Snowfall: 0.2"

    Doug
    Yeah,well, the snow fall total may have been a bit underwhelming, but the speed with which the mercury fell yesterday afternoon, the amount of water ON the ground, and ambient air temps today tell a different story.

    It was an icing event. As late as 4PM this afternoon MW was wearing a firm snood of 1" thick hard ICE ( not rime) above the 6 mile post.

    Conditions above tree line tonight are variable from simply wet and slippery, to flake/melting/undermined ice, to hard ice, dependant on sun exposure and the underlying surface.

    More of the same on tap for tomorrow morning, pretty much through 10 AM to noon.

    A goodly cloud shield was approaching the summit this afternoon and the ? is what amount of QPF is up there, dependant on overnight temps.

    this hasn't been a simple N'or easter solution.

    Breeze

  13. #13
    Senior Member grouseking's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DougPaul
    Mt Washington 24 hour statistics:

    Maximum Temperature: 41F
    Minimum Temperature: 20F
    Peak Wind Gust: NW 77 mph
    Average Wind Speed: 40.9 mph
    Liquid Precipitation: 1.18"
    Snowfall: 0.2"

    Doug

    Plus, it didn't change over to snow till later Friday afternoon into the evening, and this time of year its tough for snow to accumulate on the summit, esp when the wind is blowing at an average of 40 mph. I was on Morgan and Percival today and could see ice or snow on Franconia Ridge as the clouds began to gather. The seasons are beginning to change!

    grouseking

  14. #14
    Senior Member NewHampshire's Avatar
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    The summit tower on Cannon was crusted nice and heavy in Rime ice!!!!! We hit the frost at about the 3000 foot mark, and Franconia Ridge looked more white today than at some points last winter!

    BRING IT ON!!!!!

    Brian
    Adopter: Wildcat Ridge Trail from Rt.16 to Wildcat "D". If you have any issues please contact me!

  15. #15
    Senior Member DougPaul's Avatar
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    More 24hr Mt Washington statistics...
    Maximum Temperature: 26F
    Minimum Temperature: 18F
    Peak Wind Gust: NW 64 mph
    Average Wind Speed: 37.9 mph
    Liquid Precipitation: 0.13"
    Snowfall: 1.1"

    And conditions at 4:41am, Sun Oct 14:
    Weather: Freezing fog w/ rime
    Temperature: 19F
    Wind: W54 mph
    Visibility: 1/16 of a mile
    Relative Humidity: 100%
    Station Pressue: 23.53" falling
    Ground Conditions: Icy w/ snow drifts

    Maybe not enough to ski in, but it sounds wintery...

    Doug

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