Here comes the first real snow for the Whites!

I have delayed writing this until I was sure of what was going to happen. We have a very strong polar vortex coming down for thursday-tuesday over New England. It will first have heavy rain until the cold air filters in and changes to snow above first 6000 feet then all the way down below 2000 feet by friday night. Shortwaves will come through every day enhancing upslope and bringing moisture. It will snow most of the weekend in the high peaks off and on, not to mention heavy rime ice, fog, wind.Be prepared. These situations are very difficult to forecast so it will highly depend at what elevation you are at, I would say for areas above 4000 feet could see up to 1-5 inches. This is an early forecast right now. The whites will be white by sunday. I can't wait to go check it out somewhere! Not sure which peak to tackle...-Mattl

its gonna rain....................

giggy said:

its gonna rain....................

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Looks like a mess...it is going to be quite warm (50s) down low on the weekend...we can hope for the higher peaks snow!

Wish I was going to be up there. Hopefully soon. I love it up there in the winter. They are forecasting a chance of some wet snow here for Friday and Saturday in the higher elevations. That will be the first for this season.

coming down for thursday-tuesday

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Did you perhaps mean for Tuesday 10/10 through Thursday 10/12?

(I have perused some of the weather sites mentioned in other threads, with AccuWeather being nominated for most reliable, and it doesn't say anything about rain or snow for the Franconia area during that time period, but it does show rain Tuesday-Thursday.)

Tim

From the Gray Maine technical weather discussion:

COLD AIR STARTS MOVING IN ON THURSDAY AS THE RAIN ENDS AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST DURING THURSDAY. APPROACHING TROF FROM THE CLOSED LOW IN
CENTRAL CANADA WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
FRIDAY...PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.

When Gray mentions the mountains they talk about where people live and where people will be traveling, so there is a very good chance that snow could make it down to 2000 feet Friday. That obviosuly spells more snow on the higher peaks, and even if it doesn't snow all that much, this will probably be the first weekend where icing will be a problem. Temps in the upper 40s and 50's down low translate to below freezing above 4,000 feet in this kind of pattern. And with an upper level low nearby, conditions unstable.

I would go as far as bring some sort of traction this weekend, and maybe not hiking over the higher peaks in the Presidentials alltogether. Winds chills will be well below zero. Weather above treeline is going to be a much different animal than in the valley.

grouseking

its gonna rain......................

Yeah its gonna pour later tonight...........

But this weekend is a different story over the higher terrain.

Here's a good website Matt Noyes Weather Blog . He's the day meteorologist on NECN. He's calling for snow in the mountains this weekend as well. From his page....

"By Friday night, enough cold air will be spilling into New England that snowflakes will mix in at higher elevations. This comes as drier air moves into most of New England, which means many areas will escape from any snow showers, though moisture input from a steady westerly flow off of Lake Ontario may contribute to snow showers along the spine of the Green Mountains overnight Friday night. Additionally, a new upper level disturbance will move across Northern New England late Saturday and Saturday night, bringing another chance for mountain snow showers, this time carrying into the White Mountains and Mountains of Maine overnight Saturday night, though it's likely these would only be found in the higher elevations of above 2000 feet, with either a mix of rain and snowflakes or simply rain showers falling in the valleys."

Its coming allright. Embrace it!

grouseking

I haven't got real winter equipment (yet). I was hoping to get Lincoln + Lafayette on Sunday without really needing winter equipment. Perhaps yak trax would suffice...

I've got some knowledge of the weather and how it affects the ocean and marine fishing conditions, but I'm not as up on the impact in the mountains...

So, are we predicting snow on Franconia Ridge for this weekend? Sounds like a definite "Maybe!"

Tim

Not sure about this weekend, but here's NOAA's winter outlook.

NOAA Winter Outlook

giggy said:

its gonna rain......................

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I'm with Giggy....

giggy said:

its gonna rain......................

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Rain is ok and cold is ok, but the two shouldn't be mixed.

sapblatt said:

Looks like a mess...it is going to be quite warm (50s) down low on the weekend...we can hope for the higher peaks snow!

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Sapblatt is the God of all bad weather for 2006.......... I'd go with his forecast!

Looking partly cloudy for the immediate future. As much as i want to start seeing snow, looks like we still have to wait some more.

I'm hiking with Sapblatt this weekend so rain is pretty much a sure thing!

Quietman said:

Not sure about this weekend, but here's NOAA's winter outlook.

NOAA Winter Outlook

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I saw this too, warmer than average temps for the winter ahead but not as warm as last winter. El-Nino again

giggy said:

its gonna rain......................

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Tell us what you really think

B.

Well it might be the WHite Mtns yet, but Buffalo picked up 8.3 inches of snow Thursday! Lake effect is in high gear.

The Adirondacks, Greens and Presidentials will prob get snow tonight and tomorrow, and more for the Whites later Saturday into Sunday...I think.

For what its worth, MWN is below freezing with fog...but no snowfall yet.

grouseking

From today's Conway Daily Sun

10/13/2006

[size=+1]Snow on the summits?
Weekend promises light snow up high to set off still-dazzling foliage[/size]
David Carkhuff
[size=-2]
—A dusting of snow on the peaks this weekend could make an already spectacular fall foliage season even more breathtaking.

Just dress warm before venturing out, forecasters warn. The National Weather Service predicts a dip in temperatures this weekend, with highs in the mid-50s. On Friday, expect a 50 percent chance of rain, possibly turning to snow showers after 8 p.m., the weather service says. On Saturday, prepare for a 30 percent chance of rain or snow.

Michael Cempa, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Gray, Maine, said the weekend should be pleasant, if chilly.

"You might see some flakes of snow. I don't think we're looking at anything beyond that, where you'd see accumulating snow, and this would be across the highest elevations," he said. "Once we get through Friday, I think we'll see partly sunny conditions."...[/size]

From my window, I saw a beautiful sunrise with only two orange clouds on the otherwise clear blue sky. I enjoy the look and feel of a little snow on the peaks.