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Thread: Mother of all nor'easters coming?

  1. #1
    Senior Member sardog1's Avatar
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    Mother of all nor'easters coming?

    Accuweather is warning about possible 100-year storm for early next week.

    NWS Gray is a little more restrained . . . for now:

    SUN...ONE LAST GASP TO WINTER...AND A HEALTHY ONE AT THAT. MODELS IN
    FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING INTENSIFYING LOW TO THE MID ATLC
    REGION BY SUNDAY. LOW FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND BECOME
    NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK...BEFORE
    DOING A CLASSIC LOOP IN THE SAME VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
    LOW CAPTURES SYSTEM. WHAT A SPRING. WILL APRIL SNOWFALL RECORDS
    FALL? ALL-TIME SNOWIEST FOR THE FOREST CITY IS 20.5 INCHES WAY
    BACK IN APRIL 1906. 30 YEAR AVERAGE FOR PORTLAND IS 3.2 INCHES.

    HAVE UPPED WINDS AND SEAS FOR DAY 4...HOWEVER LEFT ROOM FOR
    ADJUSTMENTS AT TRACK/INTENSITY WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH TIME.

    COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL: IF TRACK/INTENSITY HOLDS...THERE WILL
    BE PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST (MAINLY SOUTH OF PORTLAND) SUNDAY
    NIGHT AND MONDAY. MONDAY WOULD BE THE MOST VULNERABLE TIME FOR AND
    COASTAL FLOODING...SPLASH-OVER AND BEACH EROSION AS LARGE...HIGH
    ENERGY OCEAN WAVES WOULD HAVE HAD TIME TO DEVELOP AND COMBINE WITH
    AN INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE.. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES INCREASE
    WITH TIME DURING THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
    HAVING SAID ALL THIS...IT'S STILL EARLY AND WE HAVE A COUPLE MORE
    DAYS TO REVIEW THIS POTENTIAL.
    sardog1

    "Å! kjære Bymann gakk ei stjur og stiv,
    men kom her up og kjenn eit annat Liv!
    kom hit, kom hit, og ver ei daud og lat!
    kom kjenn, hot d'er, som heiter Svevn og Mat,
    og Drykk og Tørste og det heile, som
    er Liv og Helse i ein Hovedsum."

    -- Aasmund O. Vinje, "Til Fjells!"

  2. #2
    Senior Member sardog1's Avatar
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    New analysis from NWS Gray/Portland

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
    345 PM EDT THU APR 12 2007

    LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
    AMONG THE GFS/NAM/UKMET/GEM/EUROPEAN THAT THERE WILL BE A MAJOR
    EAST COAST STORM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UNCERTAINTY IS IN
    WHERE THE LOW WILL DEVELOP...AND ULTIMATELY STALL. THE 00/06/12Z
    GFS AND THE 00Z EUROPEAN BRING THE LOW AS FAR NORTH AS
    CONNECTICUT...REPRESENTING THE FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION. THE 12Z
    NAM/UKMET/GEM ALL HINT AT A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
    SOLUTION...ONLY MAKING IT TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. BEST
    APPROACH IN THIS TIME FRAME IS A CONSENSUS.

    A CONSENSUS APPROACH SUGGESTS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO AROUND
    975 MB NEAR LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLING AND SLOWLY
    CIRCLING COUNTERCLOCKWISE MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
    ON TUESDAY. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK...THIS
    GENERAL SCENARIO COULD POSE THE FOLLOWING PROBLEMS...

    COASTAL FLOODING IS THE MOST PROMINENT CONCERN...WITH EAST TO
    NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS SUSTAINED SUNDAY
    NIGHT...AND REMAINING IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY. SUCH A
    PROLONGED AND STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT
    STORM SURGE...POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 FEET. ALSO...TIDES WILL BE ON THE
    HIGH SIDE...AT PORTLAND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE...10.6 AT 1014
    PM SUNDAY EVENING...10.6 1041 MONDAY MORNING...AND 11.2 1102 PM
    MONDAY EVENING. EACH OF THESE HIGH TIDES COULD POTENTIALLY EXCEED
    12 FOOT WITH THE SURGE AT PORTLAND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
    PERIOD OF EROSION...AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOODING. ALSO...SEAS
    COULD APPROACH 20 FEET DURING THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT.

    2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN
    SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...TAPERING TO 1 OR 2 INCHES IN THE
    FOOTHILLS...TO MUCH LESS FAR NORTH. THIS COULD CAUSE SMALL STREAM
    FLOODING SOUTH...WHERE MUCH OF IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
    RAIN...AND CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WET.

    FINALLY...IN THE FOOTHILLS...FROM CON-IZG-LEW-AUG NORTH A
    SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
    FALL AS SNOW. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL...HOWEVER SNOWFALL
    TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
    HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

    THIS ALL IS DEPENDANT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THIS FAR
    OUT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MARGIN FOR ERROR. WHILE WATCHES AND
    WARNINGS REMAIN QUITE A WAYS OFF...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
    POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LATE WEEKEND EVENT.
    sardog1

    "Å! kjære Bymann gakk ei stjur og stiv,
    men kom her up og kjenn eit annat Liv!
    kom hit, kom hit, og ver ei daud og lat!
    kom kjenn, hot d'er, som heiter Svevn og Mat,
    og Drykk og Tørste og det heile, som
    er Liv og Helse i ein Hovedsum."

    -- Aasmund O. Vinje, "Til Fjells!"

  3. #3
    Senior Member Artex's Avatar
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    Thumbs up

    Reading that makes me almost glad that I failed to qualify for the Boston Marathon this year.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Mattl's Avatar
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    This will be an epic storm..get ready. The snow may be measured in many feet in mountain areas. -Mattl

  5. #5
    Senior Member grouseking's Avatar
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    I wish I could draw a map.....

    This might not be about hiking, but it really is going to affect a large portion of people, so I figured I'd go into a little more detail on the possibilities, even though we're still a few days away. The magnitude of this thing could be immense...much like a once in 100 year event, but since its April and there is a chance of lots of heavy wet snow over a large area, it would be more like a once in 300 year event!!

    Its still really early to pinpoint where this is going to go. The storm is going to be a cutoff low, meaning upper level winds won't be able to steer it, so the storm will stall and meander south of New England somewhere starting later Sunday and last thru possibly Tuesday. If it stalls near NYC, it will rain in many areas of southern New England and further north, snow will change to heavy rain, shut off, and then end as a snow burst. It would be a weird situation where it will rain in western Maine and be snowing down in New Jersey!

    If the storm is further east, like closer to Cape Cod, then we're under the gun for a huge dumping of snow, including the bigger cities. Another wild card is the fact that its mid April, the sun angle is high, and snow has a tough time accumulating during the day. Note what happened in southern NH and northern MA today....the precip was late so it warmed up enough and it was mostly a rainstorm till the end (unless you added some elevation).

    Bottom line...the places that stay all rain could get 3-5 inches of liquid which would be a problem for flooding. The places who stay all snow.......someone is going to be measuring it with a yard stick!! Right now those places look to be eastern upstate NY and any highly elevated areas of northern New England. In the lower elevations, a general 6-12 inches is a great early conservative estimate, before they possibly change to rain. But again....time will tell.

    One more thing, if this storm stalls there will be coastal flooding, esp if there is an easterly wind component in New England. Most places except for Naragansett Bay get coastal flooding on easterly winds. So if you live along the beach, take precautions starting tomorrow.

    It's best to play it conservatively right now, despite the incredible risks this storm has.

    Disclaimer...this will change tomorrow

    grouseking

    PS Forgot to mention the potential for hurricane force gusts along the southern New England coasts and the possibility of tropical storm force wind gusts throughout New England. That's going to be one hell of a head wind if the marathon is held on schedule!!
    Last edited by grouseking; 04-13-2007 at 12:22 AM.

  6. #6
    Senior Member giggy's Avatar
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    we are all going to die........................
    Accomplishments:
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    Adopter of la casa in millinocket and the cheap beer store in gorham

  7. #7
    Senior Member forestgnome's Avatar
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    My optimism is being tested. Pray for rain. Warm, melting rain.

    "Everytime the rain comes down,
    close my eyes and listen"
    Enya

  8. #8
    Senior Member NewHampshire's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by giggy
    we are all going to die........................
    Darn, and me without a fresh pair of underoos!

    Brian
    Adopter: Wildcat Ridge Trail from Rt.16 to Wildcat "D". If you have any issues please contact me!

  9. #9
    Senior Member spencer's Avatar
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    Of all the weekends to go to NYC. Oh my, I'm driving to NYC tonight in this mess and then driving home on Monday in that mess.

  10. #10
    Senior Member skiguy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by grouseking
    This might not be about hiking, but it really is going to affect a large portion of people, so I figured I'd go into a little more detail on the possibilities, even though we're still a few days away. The magnitude of this thing could be immense...much like a once in 100 year event, but since its April and there is a chance of lots of heavy wet snow over a large area, it would be more like a once in 300 year event!!

    Its still really early to pinpoint where this is going to go. The storm is going to be a cutoff low, meaning upper level winds won't be able to steer it, so the storm will stall and meander south of New England somewhere starting later Sunday and last thru possibly Tuesday. If it stalls near NYC, it will rain in many areas of southern New England and further north, snow will change to heavy rain, shut off, and then end as a snow burst. It would be a weird situation where it will rain in western Maine and be snowing down in New Jersey!

    If the storm is further east, like closer to Cape Cod, then we're under the gun for a huge dumping of snow, including the bigger cities. Another wild card is the fact that its mid April, the sun angle is high, and snow has a tough time accumulating during the day. Note what happened in southern NH and northern MA today....the precip was late so it warmed up enough and it was mostly a rainstorm till the end (unless you added some elevation).

    Bottom line...the places that stay all rain could get 3-5 inches of liquid which would be a problem for flooding. The places who stay all snow.......someone is going to be measuring it with a yard stick!! Right now those places look to be eastern upstate NY and any highly elevated areas of northern New England. In the lower elevations, a general 6-12 inches is a great early conservative estimate, before they possibly change to rain. But again....time will tell.

    One more thing, if this storm stalls there will be coastal flooding, esp if there is an easterly wind component in New England. Most places except for Naragansett Bay get coastal flooding on easterly winds. So if you live along the beach, take precautions starting tomorrow.

    It's best to play it conservatively right now, despite the incredible risks this storm has.

    Disclaimer...this will change tomorrow

    grouseking

    PS Forgot to mention the potential for hurricane force gusts along the southern New England coasts and the possibility of tropical storm force wind gusts throughout New England. That's going to be one hell of a head wind if the marathon is held on schedule!!
    I'm bumming...no upslope this time?
    "I'm getting up and going to work everyday and I am stoked. That does not suck!"__Shane McConkey

  11. #11
    Senior Member jrbren's Avatar
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    Will it bring the africanized killer bees with it ?

  12. #12
    Senior Member DougPaul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skiguy
    I'm bumming...no upslope this time?
    Maybe only if you ski eastern slopes...

    Doug

  13. #13
    Senior Member daxs's Avatar
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    In South Jersey right now the forecasts have been for torrential rains, high winds and coastal flooding.
    Carol

  14. #14
    Senior Member sardog1's Avatar
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    sardog1

    "Å! kjære Bymann gakk ei stjur og stiv,
    men kom her up og kjenn eit annat Liv!
    kom hit, kom hit, og ver ei daud og lat!
    kom kjenn, hot d'er, som heiter Svevn og Mat,
    og Drykk og Tørste og det heile, som
    er Liv og Helse i ein Hovedsum."

    -- Aasmund O. Vinje, "Til Fjells!"

  15. #15
    Senior Member grouseking's Avatar
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    Yeah I didn't mean to sound "doom and gloom." Just laying out the potential....This will be a fairly decent snow for the upper elevations. It kind of worries me because they don't need any more snow in the higher elevation...it has been awhile since I've seen 62 inches at Hermit Lakes this time of year. I wonder if this will have a negative effect on animals? This storm will be an elevation thumping too....

    And yes, there will be upslope (much like today).

    The tough call is in the lower valleys and parts of south central New England, where snow and rain will prob flip flop back and forth. Lots of uncertainties remain, but it looks like northern New Eng will not escape heavy snow, esp in the higher terrain.

    grouseking

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