Yeah, baby, you know what I like!

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sardog1

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If it ain't snowin' there, we ain't goin' there.
Now that I have your attention:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
826 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OUT TO SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH
FROM QUEBEC WILL SUPPRESS THE FRONT WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF NEW
ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...STALLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

. . .

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO WILL
USE HPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME INPUT FROM THE GFS40 FOR THE LONGER
LONG TERM AND GENERALLY USE THE GFS40 FOR THE SHORTER LONG
TERM. HAVE INTRODUCED MIXED -SHRA AND -SHSN FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES
FRIDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY NGT BASED ON H8 TEMPS AND HPC SFC TEMP
FCSTS. GENERALLY AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FOR
SEAS HAVE LOWERED FROM WNAWAVE GUIDANCE FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY SINCE
MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR N OCEAN LOW MOVES TO BRING HIGHER
SEAS THIS FAR N.

Yes children, -SHSN = snow showers!
 
What's more beautiful than a hike through autumn forest with the peaks dusted with fresh snow?!!! Yeehaw!!!

happy trails :)
 
*looks longingly across the room at the pair of skis leaning against the wall*
 
Well, there was some waffling since the forecast posted above that I didn't want to share here. I was hoping that the teasers at NWS Gray/Portland would either commit or admit that they were just out to get me all hot and bothered. But now they have simply quit doing their job. Maybe I'll start a weather blog and see if I can get people to send me money for this sort of "analysis":

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
224 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2007

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE UPPER VORTEX DEEPENING AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
WILDLY DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE COAST ON FRIDAY.
THUS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. PROGRESSION OF
THESE FEATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLES POINTING TO A COOL
AND DRIER AIR MASS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Yes, I am slightly bitter right now. :mad:
 
I wouldn't worry about the snow yet. Give it a couple days for the computer models to sort things out. By Thursday they should have a good handle. In these patterns there are almost always upslope conditions so hopefully it will be cold enough. Hold on to that!!

grouseking
 
Mt Washington 24 hour statistics:

Maximum Temperature: 41°F
Minimum Temperature: 20°F
Peak Wind Gust: NW 77 mph
Average Wind Speed: 40.9 mph
Liquid Precipitation: 1.18"
Snowfall: 0.2"

Doug
 
DougPaul said:
Mt Washington 24 hour statistics:

Maximum Temperature: 41°F
Minimum Temperature: 20°F
Peak Wind Gust: NW 77 mph
Average Wind Speed: 40.9 mph
Liquid Precipitation: 1.18"
Snowfall: 0.2"

Doug

Yeah,well, the snow fall total may have been a bit underwhelming, but the speed with which the mercury fell yesterday afternoon, the amount of water ON the ground, and ambient air temps today tell a different story.

It was an icing event. As late as 4PM this afternoon MW was wearing a firm snood of 1" thick hard ICE ( not rime) above the 6 mile post.

Conditions above tree line tonight are variable from simply wet and slippery, to flake/melting/undermined ice, to hard ice, dependant on sun exposure and the underlying surface.

More of the same on tap for tomorrow morning, pretty much through 10 AM to noon.

A goodly cloud shield was approaching the summit this afternoon and the ? is what amount of QPF is up there, dependant on overnight temps.

this hasn't been a simple N'or easter solution.

Breeze
 
DougPaul said:
Mt Washington 24 hour statistics:

Maximum Temperature: 41°F
Minimum Temperature: 20°F
Peak Wind Gust: NW 77 mph
Average Wind Speed: 40.9 mph
Liquid Precipitation: 1.18"
Snowfall: 0.2"

Doug


Plus, it didn't change over to snow till later Friday afternoon into the evening, and this time of year its tough for snow to accumulate on the summit, esp when the wind is blowing at an average of 40 mph. I was on Morgan and Percival today and could see ice or snow on Franconia Ridge as the clouds began to gather. The seasons are beginning to change!

grouseking
 
More 24hr Mt Washington statistics...
Maximum Temperature: 26°F
Minimum Temperature: 18°F
Peak Wind Gust: NW 64 mph
Average Wind Speed: 37.9 mph
Liquid Precipitation: 0.13"
Snowfall: 1.1"

And conditions at 4:41am, Sun Oct 14:
Weather: Freezing fog w/ rime
Temperature: 19°F
Wind: W54 mph
Visibility: 1/16 of a mile
Relative Humidity: 100%
Station Pressue: 23.53" falling
Ground Conditions: Icy w/ snow drifts

Maybe not enough to ski in, but it sounds wintery... :)

Doug
 
The Webcam from the top of wildcat shows the snow/ice level pretty far down this morning too. Tucks is in the clouds, and snow/ice in the trees is visible below the cloud level! :)
 
A little white frosting on the higher elevations of Spaulding, Sugarloaf and Redington today. ;)
 
I ran into a "heavy dusting of snow" today above 3000' up on the Huntingtons. All 4 peaks had snow on the ground and in the spurce... thin, but SNOW!! Even had a brief snow shower on the W peak while I was layering up for the descent back down to the Kanc.

Bring it on baby!!
 
onestep said:
I ran into a "heavy dusting of snow" today above 3000' up on the Huntingtons. All 4 peaks had snow on the ground and in the spurce... thin, but SNOW!! Even had a brief snow shower on the W peak while I was layering up for the descent back down to the Kanc.

Bring it on baby!!

Music to my ears! :)

grouseking
 
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