Major Snow Storm coming

So I know a lot of you do care about snow so I will post this. A very unusual storm is coming into Mexico and Arizona will flooding rain followed by blizzard conditions across Colorado. They already are posted up to 5 feet of snow in southwest Colorado! The storm then comes across the country and develops a secondary low off MA coast. Then the storm bombs off the coast and drops the pressure down to 973! That means the storm is very deep. The main part of the storm is Sunday night into Monday, but lingers into Tuesday in the mountains. One factor that may give even more snow to some places like the Carter Range and Wildcat, is that there is a large storm in Newfoundland that will block this storm, that will mean it bombs into the Gulf of Maine and then sits there and rotates back into NH and Maine. Very cold temperatures as well as high wind will be a factor as well. It is a bit early for exact snow amounts as sleet could be a problem in southern areas, but for the central and eastern Whites its looking like a 2 foot storm. The more south you go into Mass and near there the less will fall becauuse of sleet (As its looking now). I would say for most of the foothills and central NH into Maine this may be near a foot or so. Winter is definitly here, and with snow already in the mountains, this will really help this year. May actually get a normal snow year. If anyone gets snow amounts, post on here. -Mattl

Sounds great. We're up there again on Dec 15/16th hiking and skiing.
let it snow, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW !

BestSkiWeather.com concurs

Thanks for the analysis, Matt... Jim Roemer of bestskiweather.com has been tracking this for a few days, and his early analysis is very similar to yours. Depending on where you are in the mountains, the whisper of "two feet" has been heard.

Bringing home the laptop, and hoping to invoke the Powder Rule on Monday...

By the way, a plug for Roemer: he is remarkably accurate in his ski-weather forecasting. I have been a non-subscribing frequent viewer for a couple years, and the accuracy of his calls has been impressive. This year, I am coughing up the dough for a subscription (a cost neatly offset by the free ski tickets he comps to subscribers anyway).

Yikes. Sounds like it may be time to put the lawn chairs away.

Computer Models...

These show possible snowfall amounts over time. Kind of for entertainment purposes, but they also give the forecasters an idea.

Partway thru



Updates every day....


What's most interesting about this...these models are getting so sophisticated they actually take into account that the Northeast Kingdom of VT and northwest NH is going to get shadowed. You can see it in this map! Really cool!

These maps pump out a lot of snow...and don't show the whole story for Maine either because it doesn't show the whole time. But the stakes are high for this and its going to be a very deep in terms of pressure so the chances some places could be me measuring this in feet! I'm excited? Are you excited??

I'm very excited... so long as it holds off till I get back from my hike on Sunday and I can watch the pretty flakes from my cozy living room.

Does this mean I still have to rake the leaves tomorrow?

Orsonab said:

I'm very excited... so long as it holds off till I get back from my hike on Sunday and I can watch the pretty flakes from my cozy living room.

Does this mean I still have to rake the leaves tomorrow?

Click to expand...

Put away the rake and get Psyched for Monday.

skiguy said:

Put away the rake and get Psyched for Monday.

Click to expand...

I hope they were his rock skies.

Time to wax those boards:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
231 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007
. . .
SUNDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO GET INTERESTING FOR
US. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT 2 TO 3 DAYS OUT...BUT THE SYSTEM
DEFINITELY LOOK LIKE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT FOR THE WHOLE
REGION. AT 00Z MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER LAKE
HURON WITH AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY
12Z MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING NEAR LONG ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 500MB WAVE
CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REALLY START TO SLOW DOWN AND WRAP UP. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD
ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS AN ALL SNOW SYSTEM...EVEN ALONG THE COAST. AT
18Z MONDAY THE SECONDARY LOW WILL HAVE FULLY DEVELOPED NEAR CAPE
COD...WITH THE 500MB LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AT 00Z TUESDAY OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE...MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY 06Z TUESDAY AS SNOW BEGINS TO
END ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A
PROLONGED EVENT OVER THE COURSE OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE A BIT PREMATURE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE 6 TO 10
INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AGAIN...THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON AMOUNTS.

Yee haw!

This storm is looking better and better. Since gray Maine already posted 6-10 3 days out, it means they are concerned and they are covering their butt till it happends. Its rare for them to post possible amounts this far in advance. Get ready for the amounts forecast to go much higher in the next day or so. -Mattl

Damn! I am psyched for this! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

P.S. - Beware of the Roemer, I tracked his "forecasts" on different ski websites for a few years. 90 % of the time, his forecasts for accumulations were grossly exaggerated. It appears he is being paid by The MAN at the ski resorts to forecast HUGE storms, so people wil buy more ski tickets and spend more money. Follow the weather channel or local forecasts, don't give money to a fraud. He's probably predicting 6-7 feet of snow already.

It's white fluffy time!!

king tut said:

P.S. - Beware of the Roemer, I tracked his "forecasts" on different ski websites for a few years. 90 % of the time, his forecasts for accumulations were grossly exaggerated. It appears he is being paid by The MAN at the ski resorts to forecast HUGE storms, so people wil buy more ski tickets and spend more money. Follow the weather channel or local forecasts, don't give money to a fraud. He's probably predicting 6-7 feet of snow already.

Click to expand...

In defense of Jim Roemer, I would not call him any more of a fraud than most other TV weather forecasters, such as in Boston for example, where it is common practice to exaggerate storms to increase TV viewership. Roemer does have a real meteorology degree (with minor in physics) from Lyndon State (Lyndonville, VT, which is where you get a meteorology degree in Vermont, as opposed to UVM), unlike the majority of the local TV weather forecasters. And, Jim Roemer is using much of the same government met data (primarily NOAA) that other commercial and non-commercial weather forecasters use (including, for example, the AccuWeather, the Weather Channel, and local radio and TV stations). Nevertheless, there usually remains a lot of variance in the computer models for predicting storm tracks, intensity, etc., so it would hardly benefit him to err on the side of exaggeration over and over again (90%? that is really hard to believe), as why would ski areas wish to answer to constant grumbling from disappointed skiers.

Latest Computer Model

The computer model I posted above updates so you it actually looks different from what I posted earlier. Now it shows that the Whites are in more of a larger swath of snow. Actually it shows a larger area of New England under 18-20 inch accumulations. Good stuff.

If you're interested in an accurate weather forecast, it's really tough to beat these guys. Plus, they give the recreational forecast, so you can tell what it's likely to be like at 4 & 6K'. Won't help you much if you're looking for coastal weather, but if it's the Whites, Greens or ADKs, it's usually accurate. And, you can hear it in VPR at regular intervals.

Knowing the local "stuff"

Kevin ~ It's time for you & Brutie to come home

Most forecasters pump up their storm totals, so that people will be concerned and scared and tune in to watch their weather report. I lived in Maine for a long time, and I really liked WCSH6 for news, but they have "storm center" coverage every time there is more than an inch of snow predicted to fall. It comes complete with ominous music and stern faced forecasters and reporters telling the viewers how dire the situation is.

Or as was the case for Dr Snow, he was being paid by American Ski Corporation to forecast monster snow storms on a weekly basis to draw more skiiers to the mountains. Someone on the Sugarloaf chat website actually tracked the forecast totals versus the actual totals of each storm, and put all the data together. If I recall correctly, his forecasts only panned out around 15-20 % of the time at most. And this is with the ski areas "measuring" their snowfalls normally at the highest point on the mountain in the biggest snow drift. I do not doubt that these forecasters have degrees, we just live in an age where economic incentives outweigh truth. Viewers are more apt to tune into the station predicting the biggest storms, because they want to be prepared and safe for when "the big one" comes. I am not knocking the credentials of any meteorologist, I just think it is a good idea to know who is paying them....

As we in the TV news business know, "fear sells."

bigmoose said:

As we in the TV news business know, "fear sells."

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Yea. I just want to reiterate that the computer model I posted is for guidance only and shouldn't be taken as the the be all end all. There is a really good chance northern MA isn't going to end up with 18-20 inches out of this...A few select areas where the heavy snow band sets up will pick up 18 inches, but not all of central New England.

grouseking

While most ski areas certainly inflate snowfall totals, do remember two issues regarding normal weather forecasts - a) most of the stuff you see online is computer generated and not necessarily accurate and b) forecasters tend to overhype to cover their butts, as lives are literally at risk (such as school districts deciding whether or not to keep the busses home).

If you want accurate forecasts, befriend a meteorologist. If you want really accurate forecasts, befriend two

I look at Roemer for trend data, not specific amounts

king tut said:

P.S. - Beware of the Roemer, I tracked his "forecasts" on different ski websites for a few years. 90 % of the time, his forecasts for accumulations were grossly exaggerated.

Click to expand...

I would agree... Dr. Weather goes a little overboard on the accumulation estimates sometimes. Last night, he called for 2-5" in Waterville Valley. We had about 1" of fresh, well-blown by a strong wind. But he is (in my anecdotal, but fairly thorough analysis) pretty accurate in his calls for precip, in any direction. If he says it's going to snow, even a week out, he tends to hit it. And if he says it's going to rain, sleet, ice, etc., well, that tends to be the way it plays. I would say he is directionally right most of the time (for the mountains, more than any other outlet), and fairly often, spot-on in his calls. He nailed virtually all of last season's major weather trends right on, and I had several (smarter than me) friends who were able to plan ahead and ski the Valentine's Day storm last winter on the strength of a Roemer call, while I spent the day on conference calls from my bedroom, watching pepper-grain dots (said friends) storming up down True Grit and Lower Bobby's.

Can you believe everything he says? Nope, it's about equal parts black art and science. But he does a remarkable job of hitting the quirks of mountain weather, over the couple years I have been following his forecasts.

It's also worthy of note that his forecasts on ASC sites were, no doubt, 'filtered' through their web people. What he said, and how it was posted, were probably more than loosely related... but the latitude there is considerable. Right now, BestSkiWeather is calling for "1 to 2 feet" in central NH and the lower Whites, and possibly more north. That could easily be reported as 2 feet coming... and if it came in at 11", Roemer looks the fool. Me, I'll take the 11" and plan to work from home on Monday, hoping for some early lunch runs.