Puck
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Every year this forecast is issued. Based on what is happening up north with cones, berries and other food sources we can try to extrapolate what bird species may accompany us on our winter hikes....
from Ron Pittaway in Ontario .......................
GENERAL FORECASTThis winter's theme is where will crossbills go and will they irruptsouth? Both species wandered widely this summer. Cone crops are poorin the Atlantic Provinces and fair to moderate in Western Canada. InOntario, spruce crops are fair to good west and east of Lake Superior and in central Ontario such as Algonquin Park, but cone abundancediminishes rapidly northwards into the boreal forest. White pine(Ontario's provincial tree) has heavy cone crops in most areas. Thehemlock crop is poor in central Ontario. The white birch crop is fair to good west and east of Lake Superior to Lake Ontario, but poor inthe boreal forest. The mountain-ash (rowan berry) crop is excellentin Ontario and Western Canada, but poor in the Atlantic Provinces.Individual finch forecasts below apply mainly to Ontario, butadjacent provinces and states may find the forecast of interest. Ialso comment on three irruptive passerines and two boreal forestraptors.
INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS
Pine Grosbeak: A mountain-ash berry specialist in winter, PineGrosbeaks will stay north of most birders this winter becausemountain-ash berries are abundant in northern Ontario. A few normally get south to Algonquin Park, but they are unlikely farther south.
Purple Finch: This finch stays in the north only when most treespecies have heavy seed crops. This fall most Purple Finches willmigrate south out of the province because overall tree seed crops are too low. A very few may winter in southern Ontario.
Red Crossbill: This crossbill comprises nine ecotypes in NorthAmerica; each has cone(s) preferences related to bill size and shape. The Types are difficult to identify in the field. Types 2 and 3 andprobably 4 occur in Ontario. The white pine Type 2 is apparently themost frequently encountered Red Crossbill in the province (Simard2007 in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario). Since white pine hasabundant crops in most areas, expect Type 2s to be widespread insmall numbers. Hemlock Type 3 (subspecies sitkensis of AOU Check-list 1957) prefers the small cones of hemlock and white spruce when bumper in Ontario. Type 3s should be absent from the province this winterbecause the hemlock crop is poor and the white spruce crop isaverage. Other Types are possible this winter given the bumper whitepine cone crop and good crop on red pine. The Red Crossbill complexvery much needs further study.
White-winged Crossbill: This crossbill wandered widely this pastsummer searching for extensive spruce cone crops. Reports came fromAlaska, Yukon, Hudson Bay Lowlands, Ontario, Quebec and many northern states such as Michigan and New York. Most kept moving but somestopped and their singing suggested nesting but spruce cone crops are generally not large enough in most areas to support major nestings.The White-winged Crossbill specializes on the small soft cones ofblack and white spruces and hemlock when bumper in Ontario. Thiswinter they should be widespread in small numbers in traditionalareas such as Algonquin Park. However, spruce cone crops are generally low in most of Canada and as seed supplies are exhaustedthis fall and winter so a moderate southward irruption is probable,perhaps extending south into the central United States. Watch forthem on ornamental spruces and European larch.
Common and Hoary Redpolls: The Common Redpoll is a white birch seedspecialist in the boreal forest in winter. White birch crops are poor in the northern two-thirds of the boreal forest, but seed abundanceincreases southward. In central Ontario, such as Algonquin Park,crops on white and yellow birches range from fair to good. It isuncertain whether the birch crop is large enough to stop thesouthward movement in central Ontario about latitude 45 degrees. Some redpolls, including a few Hoarys, may get south to Lake Ontario ifbirch seed supplies run low.
Pine Siskin: A conifer seed specialist in winter, most siskins should leave the province this fall because the spruce cone crop is poor inthe boreal forest. It is uncertain whether the huge white pine seedcrop will keep some siskins in central and northern Ontario thiswinter.
Evening Grosbeak: A conifer and hardwood seed generalist in winter,Evening Grosbeaks should make a small southward movement this winterbecause food supplies are probably sufficient in the north. Olderbirders remember the 1970s when the Evening Grosbeak was a commonfeeder bird. Their memory is based on the greatly inflated numbers 30 years ago in Eastern Canada due to huge outbreaks of spruce budworm.The last Algonquin Christmas Bird Count to have high numbers ofEvening Grosbeaks was in 1984 with 1474 individuals, which was theNorth American CBC record that year. A significant decline ingrosbeak numbers began in the mid-1980s because the size of annualbudworm outbreaks decreased. Ontario's breeding population iscurrently probably stable, subject to periodic fluctuations in sprucebudworm (Hoar 2007 in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario).
IRRUPTIVE PASSERINESRed-breasted Nuthatch: Movements of this nuthatch are linked to conecrop abundance, particularly spruce, white pine and balsam fir inOntario. Good numbers of Red-breasted Nuthatches should winter inOntario this year feeding on the bumper white pine seed crop and goodspruce/fir crops in many areas such as Algonquin Park. Bohemian Waxwing: Like the Pine Grosbeak, this waxwing is amountain-ash berry specialist in winter. Mountain-ash crops areexcellent across northern Ontario (bumper around Lake Superior) sovery few Bohemians will wander out of the boreal forest this winter.Some may get south into traditional wintering areas of centralOntario such as Orillia, Peterborough and Ottawa where Europeanmountain-ash berries are in good supply.
from Ron Pittaway in Ontario .......................
GENERAL FORECASTThis winter's theme is where will crossbills go and will they irruptsouth? Both species wandered widely this summer. Cone crops are poorin the Atlantic Provinces and fair to moderate in Western Canada. InOntario, spruce crops are fair to good west and east of Lake Superior and in central Ontario such as Algonquin Park, but cone abundancediminishes rapidly northwards into the boreal forest. White pine(Ontario's provincial tree) has heavy cone crops in most areas. Thehemlock crop is poor in central Ontario. The white birch crop is fair to good west and east of Lake Superior to Lake Ontario, but poor inthe boreal forest. The mountain-ash (rowan berry) crop is excellentin Ontario and Western Canada, but poor in the Atlantic Provinces.Individual finch forecasts below apply mainly to Ontario, butadjacent provinces and states may find the forecast of interest. Ialso comment on three irruptive passerines and two boreal forestraptors.
INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS
Pine Grosbeak: A mountain-ash berry specialist in winter, PineGrosbeaks will stay north of most birders this winter becausemountain-ash berries are abundant in northern Ontario. A few normally get south to Algonquin Park, but they are unlikely farther south.
Purple Finch: This finch stays in the north only when most treespecies have heavy seed crops. This fall most Purple Finches willmigrate south out of the province because overall tree seed crops are too low. A very few may winter in southern Ontario.
Red Crossbill: This crossbill comprises nine ecotypes in NorthAmerica; each has cone(s) preferences related to bill size and shape. The Types are difficult to identify in the field. Types 2 and 3 andprobably 4 occur in Ontario. The white pine Type 2 is apparently themost frequently encountered Red Crossbill in the province (Simard2007 in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario). Since white pine hasabundant crops in most areas, expect Type 2s to be widespread insmall numbers. Hemlock Type 3 (subspecies sitkensis of AOU Check-list 1957) prefers the small cones of hemlock and white spruce when bumper in Ontario. Type 3s should be absent from the province this winterbecause the hemlock crop is poor and the white spruce crop isaverage. Other Types are possible this winter given the bumper whitepine cone crop and good crop on red pine. The Red Crossbill complexvery much needs further study.
White-winged Crossbill: This crossbill wandered widely this pastsummer searching for extensive spruce cone crops. Reports came fromAlaska, Yukon, Hudson Bay Lowlands, Ontario, Quebec and many northern states such as Michigan and New York. Most kept moving but somestopped and their singing suggested nesting but spruce cone crops are generally not large enough in most areas to support major nestings.The White-winged Crossbill specializes on the small soft cones ofblack and white spruces and hemlock when bumper in Ontario. Thiswinter they should be widespread in small numbers in traditionalareas such as Algonquin Park. However, spruce cone crops are generally low in most of Canada and as seed supplies are exhaustedthis fall and winter so a moderate southward irruption is probable,perhaps extending south into the central United States. Watch forthem on ornamental spruces and European larch.
Common and Hoary Redpolls: The Common Redpoll is a white birch seedspecialist in the boreal forest in winter. White birch crops are poor in the northern two-thirds of the boreal forest, but seed abundanceincreases southward. In central Ontario, such as Algonquin Park,crops on white and yellow birches range from fair to good. It isuncertain whether the birch crop is large enough to stop thesouthward movement in central Ontario about latitude 45 degrees. Some redpolls, including a few Hoarys, may get south to Lake Ontario ifbirch seed supplies run low.
Pine Siskin: A conifer seed specialist in winter, most siskins should leave the province this fall because the spruce cone crop is poor inthe boreal forest. It is uncertain whether the huge white pine seedcrop will keep some siskins in central and northern Ontario thiswinter.
Evening Grosbeak: A conifer and hardwood seed generalist in winter,Evening Grosbeaks should make a small southward movement this winterbecause food supplies are probably sufficient in the north. Olderbirders remember the 1970s when the Evening Grosbeak was a commonfeeder bird. Their memory is based on the greatly inflated numbers 30 years ago in Eastern Canada due to huge outbreaks of spruce budworm.The last Algonquin Christmas Bird Count to have high numbers ofEvening Grosbeaks was in 1984 with 1474 individuals, which was theNorth American CBC record that year. A significant decline ingrosbeak numbers began in the mid-1980s because the size of annualbudworm outbreaks decreased. Ontario's breeding population iscurrently probably stable, subject to periodic fluctuations in sprucebudworm (Hoar 2007 in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario).
IRRUPTIVE PASSERINESRed-breasted Nuthatch: Movements of this nuthatch are linked to conecrop abundance, particularly spruce, white pine and balsam fir inOntario. Good numbers of Red-breasted Nuthatches should winter inOntario this year feeding on the bumper white pine seed crop and goodspruce/fir crops in many areas such as Algonquin Park. Bohemian Waxwing: Like the Pine Grosbeak, this waxwing is amountain-ash berry specialist in winter. Mountain-ash crops areexcellent across northern Ontario (bumper around Lake Superior) sovery few Bohemians will wander out of the boreal forest this winter.Some may get south into traditional wintering areas of centralOntario such as Orillia, Peterborough and Ottawa where Europeanmountain-ash berries are in good supply.
