Snowstorm tomorrow night! (Not only mountains)

Yesterday, the models jumped back to having a strong low come up the coast following a frontal boundary. The storm will tap heavy atlantic moisture and really bomb off the Cape Cod coast. It will be for all intensive purposes a nor'easter. Everyone will start as rain, but as the storm travels into western Maine, it will tap the coldest air of the season in and change the rain to snow from the mountains down to the valleys Tuesday night. For valleys, the farther west, the more snow you will get. Vermont will change to snow first, then NH. I dont think any snow will accumulate south of Concord, NH, as I think a dry slot will work in. Since most of this will occur on Tuesday night, it will be able to accumulate if it comes down hard enough because the sun angle isn't playing a part. For the mountains of Vermont and the Whites, I think 6-14 inches will fall, this will be above 2000 feet in elevation. For the valleys of Vermont, western and northern NH, I think 1-8 inches will fall, as it will really depend on where you are. 1-8 is a huge range, but thats how it works this time of year. If you are a little higher up you get the upper end. On Wednesday look for the coldest day of the year, with snow showers and strong north winds. Not a day to hike above treeline. Thursday and Friday look to be better so lets get some pictures on here! If the storm track changes it could alter all of this, but at this point this is how it looks. Bring on winter! -Mattl

Interesting, Boston and Manchester TV stations only mention flurries, yet 2 of 3 weather models are in favor of this happening. Could be fun. Gotta love snow on the pumpkins!

I wanted to wait a little longer...but nah.

I think the heaviest snow will not be in northern New England...but eastern NY, and extreme western New England, with the jackpots obviously being the highest elevations...this looks like an Adirondacks-Catskills, and possible Berkshires special. Maybe the Greens too, a few of the new models have the storm tracking into VT, and one into eastern NY.... thats too warm for snow in January around eastern/central New England, let alone late October!

That being said, I'd like to see some other computer models come into agreement with that westward shift...

Not saying that the Whites won't get any snow, it may even end as flurries in the valleys in western and central New England...this storm kind of reminds me of this.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/Past/1987_Oct/Oct_4_1987.htm

Either way, where ever this storm tracks, there will be lake effect after...the first possible major lake snows of the season out in NY.

I think the critical update will be this evening...I'm looking forward to it. Whoever stays all snow will get a foot as Mattl was saying, esp in the higher elevations. Just need to pinpoint that down.

Can't believe we're already talking about snowstorms!!
grouseking

From a computer model...subject to change.

And as always, for entertainment purposes only.


View attachment 2328


Thru Wednesday...of course the upslope will set up shop in the Whites, adding more snow. Its going to look mighty wintry across parts of New England very soon.

grouseking said:

And as always, for entertainment purposes only.


Thru Wednesday...of course the upslope will set up shop in the Whites, adding more snow. Its going to look mighty wintry across parts of New England very soon.

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Nice chart, Grouseking -- can you please post the URL?

I have been watching CONUS today, which shows more precip, farther east:

CONUS 48-Hour Snow Accumulation

and the 60-hour is even more intriguing (if you're a snow freak like me):

CONUS 60-Hour Snow Accumulation

YMMV... I am going to try to arrange my life to be around Waterville to shoot a few pictures if it turns out to be interesting.

DrewKnight said:

Nice chart, Grouseking -- can you please post the URL?

I have been watching CONUS today, which shows more precip, farther east:

CONUS 48-Hour Snow Accumulation

and the 60-hour is even more intriguing (if you're a snow freak like me):

CONUS 60-Hour Snow Accumulation

YMMV... I am going to try to arrange my life to be around Waterville to shoot a few pictures if it turns out to be interesting.

Click to expand...

Here is the link

http://www.grib2.com/wrf/N-EAST_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gif

I am a snow freak, but very cautious, especially giving the time of year and possible track west of our area. That spells snow to rain in the depths of winter, and pretty much all rain this time of year.

If the westerly track holds true, eastern VT, NH and ME's snow will come at the end of the storm, and then during the upslope period. Esp the mtns. Have that camera handy. I think you'll be using it Wednesday!

grouseking

grouseking

Thanks for the link. Do you know the 'encoding scheme', or if that service has longer-range maps? With CONUS, you just change the 48HR to 60HR, 72HR, etc... in intervals of 12 hours to see further out (or closer in) in time.

And I hear you on caution (or even realism). I don't expect to be hiking and skiing quite yet... in fact, a significant valley accumulation would probably overall fall on the side of irritation with all the stuff going on my life right now... but gee, I can't help myself when there is snow involved.

DrewKnight said:

Thanks for the link. Do you know the 'encoding scheme', or if that service has longer-range maps? With CONUS, you just change the 48HR to 60HR, 72HR, etc... in intervals of 12 hours to see further out (or closer in) in time.

And I hear you on caution (or even realism). I don't expect to be hiking and skiing quite yet... in fact, a significant valley accumulation would probably overall fall on the side of irritation with all the stuff going on my life right now... but gee, I can't help myself when there is snow involved.

Click to expand...

Yeah, snow is how I escape sometimes. I could use some flakes in the air. It doesn't even have to accumulate, just to see the flakes boosts my spirits. Call me a crazy.

grouseking

yawn, I am going back to bed

Yes, the models did shift west, but that was one run, have to see tonights run. -Mattl

Winter storm watch for the Adirondacks, and winter storm warnings already for east central NY.

yeah, looking at those links about snowfall (CONUS just is short for "continental US" and those data are from the GFS model) the GFS goes quite nuts. The other models e.g. WRF are a bit more conservative. Since the storm will be fast moving, I don't believe the 10 inch plus amounts especially with the snow being very wet, so less fluffy. The lake effect will go for a day, not longer, as high pressure will come back in reasonably quickly. And with the likeliest storm track (ya still never know) being the CT River valley, NH/ME will see mainly rain for much of the event. So, while a few spots in the Dacks in the typical lake effect areas might do really well, and maaaybe the Greens, I think the rest of us will have to settle for.... well, the first accumulating snow of the season above 1000 feet in many places, which is still nothing to ignore. I still got too many leaves to rake!

Well...

I don't understand all the "science"... but I understand this:

"I am younger each year at the first snow. When I see it, suddenly, in the air, all little and white and moving: then I am in love again and very young and I believe everything."

-Anne Sexton-

Probably a little too sentimental for you meteorologists. What do you think, Giggy?

KDT

Kevin said:

IWhat do you think, Giggy?

KDT

Click to expand...

do I even need to answer that?

Going to pound the Adirondacks and hit the Catskills pretty good as well.

"I am younger each year at the first snow. When I see it, suddenly, in the air, all little and white and moving: then I am in love again and very young and I believe everything."
LOVE that quote.

Well, my wife would say I turn into a 5 year old when it snows. Problem is that I'm a 5 year old who looks at computer models. Dangerous... I wish they had snow days for my work.

The dudes on WMUR today said 1-3 inches North and West and maybe a flurry or two in the other parts of the state.....so much for major snowfall

Brian

The models flipped and brought the low right over VT. Now even towns near the Adirondacks have 12-24 inches..in october. The Whites and Greens will still get 4-8 inches though. -Mattl