Higher Summits forcast more than one day ahead?

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If you go to the NOAA website, there's a form on the top left to enter city/state for a forecast. Once you've entered a location, you get a forecast and a map for a "point forecast". Click on a mountaintop. This definitely appears to make some allowance for mountain weather (better for temperature than for wind), although it doesn't have the detailed, mountain-specific expertise of MWO.

Then and again, I'm not sure how much I'd rely on the Washington forecast for, say, Moosilauke.
 
We use http://www.weather.com/

They have an hour by hour forecast that looks out 48 hours as well that gives some good details. For hike planning we compare the forecast for Twin Mountain, Lincon, and Mt Washington to get a gut feel on what to expect. Not always acurate, but one time the hour by hour indicated going form cloudy to sunny at 10 AM. We were on Guyout at 10:05 and the clouds simply went away and we were left will bright blue skies!
 
I'm highly critical of most online forecasts.

Mount Washington website is your best bet, followed by the point and click on nws.noaa.gov.

When it comes to mountain forecasts more than a couple days away, thats just a little too much to ask for. Places like accuweather or weather.com might be able to give the trend of what could happen, but are FAR from perfect.

Once people start to realize that, maybe meteorologists will get a little more respect out there.

But I like the Mt Washington one the most because its a forecast made by people who understand the nitty gritty of the local mountain weather, and they know their limits.

Sometime you have to plan for everything, I guess.


grouseking
 
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We use http://www.weather.com/

They have an hour by hour forecast that looks out 48 hours as well that gives some good details. For hike planning we compare the forecast for Twin Mountain, Lincon, and Mt Washington to get a gut feel on what to expect. Not always acurate, but one time the hour by hour indicated going form cloudy to sunny at 10 AM. We were on Guyout at 10:05 and the clouds simply went away and we were left will bright blue skies!

Even a blind squirrel sometimes finds the nut...

There is a good side and bad side to the hour by hour on weather.com/accuweather.com, as well as weather.gov click on mountains feature.

The good side...they are there, and they generally make some allowances for mountains being there.

The bad news, they are completely done by computers off of one model and one model run. No human intervention or oversite at all. When they initallize right, and are in a pattern that plays well to a models known biases, they can hit. But they can be very wrong. I wouldn't use these for anything more than general planning...like seeing if a storm is coming, or if it trends colder.

The higher summits forecasts provided by the Observatory, Eye on the Sky in VT, and the higher summits forecast by NWS are the best way to go. They have trained mets who know the mountains making the forecasts. And while the official forecast doesn't go beyond 36 hours for any of these products, they often elude to trends beyond in the discussions.

When I worked at MWO, we tested our skills against longer distance forecasts for the higher summits. Skill level dropped off significantly beyond 36 hours with respect to timing of in and out of clouds, as well as wind speeds (some of the bigger issues for mountaineers in these hills.)

Simply, the mountains of New England are animals of their own breed, and they are difficult to forecast for beyond the general. They very much mold an air mass to their liking and intent. I've been burned many times, but in general, through 36 hours, they do pretty good.

Beyond that, use the other sites, but please be skeptical and understand the product and the inherent limitations...

One last tip...the Observatory updates an .mp3 discussion on their website that goes out 36 hours from the afternoon, a product that isn't published anywhere else. It's typically updated by 5PM...well worth a listen!
 
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Old advice. Expect the weather to change. If not next hour, today. Or tomorrow. If not tomorrow ...

w7xman's remarks tell the story very well. I'm just being a wiseguy this morning.

G.
 
Careful, the Mount Washington Observatory does not forecast the weather.

According to the information posted on their web site, the forecasts they disseminate come from the National Weather Service in Gray, Maine.

MWO FAQ Page - scroll down to question #16.

:rolleyes:

From their page....

"16. Does the Observatory prepare forecasts?

Observers monitor and record current weather conditions at the summit, but do not perform official forecasting. The weather information that is sent on an hourly basis to the National Weather Service is used in local and national forecasting models. The forecast information disseminated by the Observatory is generated by the National Weather Service."
 
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Crown Weather includes the MOS forecasts that can provide interesting and useful information three days out and seven days out. The particular station identifier to use in the MOS forecasts is KMWN. Or, simply go to the National Weather Service Meteorological Development Lab and access the MOS Forecasts without a trip to Crown Weather.

Suggestion, go for "One-Stop MOS", select NH from the list of states, check Mt. Washington, go to the bottom of the page and submit the query.

The fields are explained in links from the main page.

Good luck.
 
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Careful, the Mount Washington Observatory does not forecast the weather.

According to the information posted on their web site, the forecasts they disseminate come from the National Weather Service in Gray, Maine.

MWO FAQ Page - scroll down to question #16.

:rolleyes:


Hmmm...outdated info...they have been for the higher terrain only for some time now...I'll email the webmaster...

The observatory started forecasting when they realized they could put out a reasonable 36 hour forecast for the higher summits. The NWS report is still only 12 hours valid at noon the day of the forecast...
 
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While it is not specific to the high peaks, I find the NWS "Forecast Discussion" (it's a link on the lower right corner of a point forecast) is often very helpful for planning longer term trends. You have to decode some quirky lingo, but if you can get past that they usually have a good rundown of the agreement of the models, and the uncertainty in the forecast. Here's an example from today for Mount Mansfield. Note that I've put in bold two comments about Saturday's winds.

Here's the point forecast (clicked on Mount Mansfield's summit):

Saturday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 11am. Cloudy and cold, with a temperature falling to around -7 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -27. West wind between 9 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night: Increasing clouds, with a low around -12. Wind chill values as low as -30. South wind between 7 and 10 mph.

Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -15. South wind between 7 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Here's part of the forecast discussion:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 224 PM EST FRIDAY...EXPECTING LGT SCT -SW TO CONTINUE MAINLY OVER N CWA FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION BY SAT AFTNOON AND WILL THEN DRY REGION OUT BY SAT NGT. OTHER ISSUE FOR SAT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM TIGHT GRADIENT OF APPROACHING RIDGE VERSUS EXITING LOW... MAINLY DURING THE AFTNOON. W/ CLRING SKIES OVERNGT AND RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE AREA...WILL GO A FEW DEGREES BLW MDL OVERNGT LOWS. GOING INTO SUNDAY... WARM FRNTL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY -SW WILL BE ACROSS N NY. WILL TRANSITION LGT SW FROM W TO E... GOING NO HIR THAN 40POP FOR NOW. W/SFC LOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...MOISTURE IS LIMITED FOR THIS FROPA. GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS SUNDAY...FRNT JUST NORTH OF THE CWA... ALLOWING SOME WAA TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING...BUT STILL CD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME -SW... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...WHERE REMNANTS OF FRNT WILL LINGER.

I know it's like 78% gibberish. But even a non-weatherman like me can get the gist. I'm thinking tomorrow afternoon is going to be pretty windy above treeline. (That's why I'll be skiing down below in the trees!)
 
The thing with the point and click forecasts, as others have mentioned, is that they are computer generated, and can lead to some funny forecasting. I've seen things like "Windy, with a northwest wind between 8 and 62 miles per hour. Winds could gust as high as 78 miles per hour". I exaggerate, but only a little.

I've learned to speak "forecast discussionese" over the past several years, and indeed it can be really helpful.

But the most helpful thing was W7x's first post in this thread. That one belongs as a "sticky" at the top of any Whites weather bulletin board!

Weatherman
 
The thing with the point and click forecasts, as others have mentioned, is that they are computer generated, and can lead to some funny forecasting. I've seen things like "Windy, with a northwest wind between 8 and 62 miles per hour. Winds could gust as high as 78 miles per hour". I exaggerate, but only a little.

I just had this happen to me the first time the other day. I forget the locale, but weather.com had a forecast said something like 25 degrees with 5mph wind. Wind chills down to -20 degrees below zero.
 
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