Weekend conditions guess?

I'm planning a trip up Mt. W this weekend. Any guess as to how the conditions may be? It sounds like there's been snow melting at all elevations. That combined with freezing temps this weekend will probably turn most trails into ice? What do you think?

At 1,000' in the Mt. Washington Valley yesterday, it was spring snow (sinking 1-2' with each step off trail while wearing snowshoes). Temperatures climbed into the 50s yesterday in the valley.

Since then, we've had light rain pretty much nonstop as long as I've been up. Lots of fog today (zaps snowpack). I'm personally preparing for spring conditions (ie carrying snowshoes and traction, while preparing to sink when ascending lower elevation trails)...I have a feeling lower elevation snowbridges are either gone or unstable at this point.

rocket21 said:

I have a feeling lower elevation snowbridges are either gone or unstable at this point.

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Yesterday one snowbridge on Drake's Brook had a HUGE hole in it, clearly someone went down there. Another bridge was dubious but solid enough to cross. On my way back I crossed a bit upstream, where nobody had stressed the snow.

Mashed potatoes

hoping for hard neve cramponing snow so I can not use the STUPID snowshoes at all this weekend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

climb on mutha f'er

Not thinking mashed potatoes... more inclined to believe things will freeze up pretty good tonight and stay that way through the weekend, with highs in the 20s at the base elevation.

My guess is the snow has consolidated considerably -- but 'shoes will probably still be a good idea in places, and traction will be required in other places.

Crampons recommended per the MWO on the higher summits:
http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/summit_forecast.php

Now if only the wind speeds stay LOW. Perhaps I'll see you up there...

I would bet on boilerplate with some fresh snow to give traction with a lot of ice bridges in sad or nonexistent condition.

DrewKnight said:

Not thinking mashed potatoes... more inclined to believe things will freeze up pretty good tonight and stay that way through the weekend, with highs in the 20s at the base elevation.

My guess is the snow has consolidated considerably -- but 'shoes will probably still be a good idea in places, and traction will be required in other places.

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Might even have some breakable crust--Yum!

Another good reason to carry snowshoes...

Doug

DrewKnight said:

Not thinking mashed potatoes... more inclined to believe things will freeze up pretty good tonight and stay that way through the weekend, with highs in the 20s at the base elevation.

My guess is the snow has consolidated considerably -- but 'shoes will probably still be a good idea in places, and traction will be required in other places.

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As Steve Smith said in today's Mt. Ear Nooks and Crannies column, "popular backcountry trails will become swaths of rock-hard snow."

I'm curious to see how much rain we get, and when the freeze hits. If this sets up well enough, we might be able to snowshoe on top of the snowpack without any sinking.

I'm heading to Owl's Head on Saturday so I will let you know what the conditions are like.

We were on Madison yesterday -- very warm temperatures were turning snow soft and melty on the trail and creating soupy ice on the summit cone. We used snowshoes for the soft spots at lower elevations (we were sinking in quite a bit even with them) and crampons for the ice fields above treeline.

I would think that with the all of the rain yesterday/today and then freezing, you'd have crusty ice-pack snow interspersed with ice patches at lower elevations and plenty o' ice 'n' rocks at the higher elevations.

Just returned from my second failed attempt at Isolation this week. It's not fun out there. A crust has formed, but it won't support a snowshoe. Once you break through, you go anywhere from knee to hip deep, at least where I was. It's still setting up a bit, but it's not too much fun!

rocket21 said:

Just returned from my second failed attempt at Isolation this week. It's not fun out there. A crust has formed, but it won't support a snowshoe. Once you break through, you go anywhere from knee to hip deep, at least where I was. It's still setting up a bit, but it's not too much fun!

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Do you mean that I won the conditions prediction lottery?

Or for those out hiking...

Doug

DougPaul said:

Or for those out hiking...

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Big . I went on my first snowshoe hike today and couldn't believe how loud the snow was crunching. I needed ear plugs.

DougPaul said:

Do you mean that I won the conditions prediction lottery?

Or for those out hiking...

Doug

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I hope the snow-set-up-fairy comes tonight and solidfies things...I expected the breakable crust today, but the 1-2" of powder on top was the kicker. We had enough melting that the Rocky Branch Trail was starting to monorail!

rocket21 said:

I hope the snow-set-up-fairy comes tonight and solidfies things...I expected the breakable crust today, but the 1-2" of powder on top was the kicker. We had enough melting that the Rocky Branch Trail was starting to monorail!

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As a follow-up, I believe the snow-set-up-fairy did her magic last night - virtually all crust in the woods today on our Owl's Head hike supported snowshoes without breaking through!

BobC and I were not too far from the Owl's Head croo today. Headed up Osseo to Flume. Low down nice good pack, a few postholes at the end of the day probably due to the sun warming the pack. But up high was a whole other story....deep snow in spots. Real fine powder that was drifting like crazy.

Brian