Snow Quality This Weekend

Between all the sources I check for such things, I still don't have a solid grasp of what the trails will feel like this weekend.

Seems it'll be a little above freezing during the day, low teens at night, mostly sunny.

Perfect corn at Tuckerman's? Maybe not. Wet cement on the Wilderness Trail? Hmm. Off-rail post-holes on northern slopes; unskiable on southern? Deadly mashed potatoes, and the Pemi's off-limits?

Where to go with the in-between snow?

Chocorua by Champney Falls?

Hermit Lake/Sherburne/Little Headwall?

Livermore Pass?

If anyone has suggestions on this weekend's trail conditions, please share!

NH received a substantial amount of rain yesterday, as reflected in the MWO Higher Summits Forecast from this morning, reprised in part below. Now the temps are going to fall, with forecast lows tonight on the higher summits of 10 to 20 below and highs of 10 below tomorrow (Friday), rising to near 0 by nightfall. If you can spell b-o-i-l-e-r-p-l-a-t-e then you probably know what to expect for the weekend, at least on any trail with traffic.

"Yesterdays rain has made for a lot of ice on the summit today which is good for visibility because there isn't much blowing snow but the bad news is what is being blown about is 90 mph chunks of ice. And a word of advice, crampons are highly recommended. But winds aren't the only thing of concern, temperatures are equally harsh. The flow ahead of the high is from the typical northwesterly direction and therefore, cold. This means today's highs are long and gone with a downward trend expected through the overnight hours. Models are putting an overnight low of 15 below roughly but I would not be surprised by something closer to 20 below based on the rate of cooling seen so far. Temperatures tomorrow, although warming, will be continually cold as we remain below 0 until sunset. So, in the meantime, a wind chill warning will remain this morning through noon tomorrow before becoming a wind chill advisory for the remainder of Friday. As for fog and clouds, residual moisture will keep fog on the higher summits for most of today but lower elevations will be towards clearing. An weak upper level shortwave will also allow for a slight chance of snow showers early with little to no accumulations. Overnight into tomorrow, the drier air will move in clearing things out and providing a sunny day tomorrow."

No rain in Franconia last night, just cold, single digits above with a high of about 25F today, ad windy. Sap has been running all week but not today. My trail was still frozen up hard on my 5-6 p.m. jaunt.

Dicey's Mill to Passaconaway had an ice crust from base to summit today, increasingly less breakable at higher elevations. One can wander off trail right now in snowshoes without sinking more than an inch or two. The crust isn't overly thick, however, so a day or two of warm sunny weather cold change things dramatically.

Hey thanks. I'm driving up Saturday mid-day, planning on getting based somewhere and be primed for an early Sunday start. I'm also there 'til Tuesday this time, so I have many options, albeit solo ones.

But the snow.... that's what I think will drive it.

If it's boilerplate up high, maybe Sherbie's just right. Or a light ski into the north-oriented Great Gulf.

The Hancocks if firm; NOT, if soupy.

Nix "sufferfest," as was recently recommended.

The xc areas are calling for staying with morning-groomed routes. Wunderground says nice, but warm. MWO is as stated. AMC says Sherbie "icy." Tuckerman.org FINALLY put up new photos. The downhill areas are talking about apres on the deck, not the new pow in the glades, so that says it all there.

Maybe Hale & back with Audie Murphy, or Franconia Ridge if the wind settles down.

sardog1 said:

NH received a substantial amount of rain yesterday, as reflected in the MWO Higher Summits Forecast from this morning, reprised in part below. Now the temps are going to fall, with forecast lows tonight on the higher summits of 10 to 20 below and highs of 10 below tomorrow (Friday), rising to near 0 by nightfall. If you can spell b-o-i-l-e-r-p-l-a-t-e then you probably know what to expect for the weekend, at least on any trail with traffic.

Click to expand...

Yes!! I may still have a chance at some remaining wNHHH bushwhacks!

The best method is to have an early start while the snow is still firm allowing the snow to not be too soft on the descent. Hiking up Cannon last weekend we found this to be the case. We had a late start and paid for it with descending in soft snow. It was actually harder than going up the Kinsman Ridge Trail

--M. said:

Hey thanks. I'm driving up Saturday mid-day, planning on getting based somewhere and be primed for an early Sunday start.


Maybe Hale & back with Audie Murphy, or Franconia Ridge if the wind settles down.

Click to expand...

--M,
At this time, I'm still planning to start for ZHut via Hale Sunday AM. So I suppose there's a chance I might see you. But it's pretty late now for not having printed out my maps yet, and not having packed my gear. So I don't have much time to try to coordinate w/ you before hitting the road Saturday. Will PM. Also, I haven't checked the weather sites yet today, and after I do, will have to sleep on the idea of boilerplate all over. That may change my objectives. I do need Lafayette and Lincoln.

Clear & sunny during the day, cold enough to freeze over at night. Calmer and not through tomorrow, windier then.

Where? Still not sure. But at least I feel like I know what awaits me. Heading out in an hour. May see one or more of you out there!

Good hunting,

--Mike