kautz route on rainier conditions vs Ing Direct or DC ?

Anybody so familiar with Rainier that they can tell/speculate about current conditions on the Kautz route vs the continued warning on the Ingraham side ?

J.Dub is landing in Seattle as I write this. He and his climbing partner Paul are doing the 2 day crevasse rescue class with IMG, a possible day hike to Muir and then a 2 or 3 night attempt via the Kautz Glacier route.

I don't know if that side is typically more or less full of snow than Ingraham, which still has warnings, apparently. Thanks.

being with a guiding company, i'm sure that he'll have all the info he needs.

good luck to him and hope the conditions and weather are in his favor.

leaf said:

being with a guiding company, i'm sure that he'll have all the info he needs.

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Definately. I'm curious personally: vicarious thrills. The last conditions update I could find on Kautz was from early May.

Is there somewhere posting a specific warning on the Ingraham side?

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/rainier_report.html

Both routes reach steepness that could slide. This is not a great weekend to be up there. Freezing levels have been under 6000' for a while and it's been snowing up there pretty good. Forecast for Sat and Sun are sunny and freezing levels bumping up to 12500' - I haven't seen temps that warm in a while. I could see lots of the higher mountains releasing this weekend, especially the warmer aspects - South (Kautz), East (everything off Muir)

I guess some other data that would help "predicting" what to see is the fact that systems usually hit the NW from the SW. So windloading occurs to the NE, S and Eastern slopes get more windblown, but the actual amount of snow should be greater on the SW aspects as the air particles dump their precip as they rise up the mountain.
Didn't they mention that some parts of the crown from the last Ingraham avy were as thick as 2meters? That is a pretty deeply buried layer, and they would have to dig deep to really check out the slopes anywhere. I haven't been following the Rainier weather too closely so I can't be too specific.

But yeah, he is with guides so I'm guessing they'll make their own assessments and make the best decisions for the group safety.

cbcbd said:

Is there somewhere posting a specific warning on the Ingraham side?

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I thought I saw that specific warning associated with the search for the missing climber, but now there's a warning on all peaks, apparently; http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012089516_avalanche12m.html

and this won't help; http://www.seattlepi.com/local/6420ap_wa_rainier_ice_quakes.html

maybe it's gettin' ready to blow

Ok, yeah, makes more sense. At least his trip up will be Monday on. It looks like the temps are dropping again and no major precip predicted, so good - nice consolidation over the weekend and then a nice freeze.
Good luck to them both

cbcbd said:

Ok, yeah, makes more sense. At least his trip up will be Monday on. It looks like the temps are dropping again and no major precip predicted, so good - nice consolidation over the weekend and then a nice freeze.
Good luck to them both

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Hey, Doug, I arrived in Seattle late Wednesday night without glacier travel gear after reading the sunny and warm weather forecast for this weekend. My other potential climbing partners for Baker had last-minute commitments this weekend, but all have said that they would not have gone up anyway given the avy potential. So, I am heading to friends' waterfront cottage in Long Beach for the weekend, as they are really excited about seeing the sun that I brought them this afternoon.

Wow ! Tough duty when you can choose between glacier travel and a sunny, seaside cottage !

Dr., good choice! Long Beach is a gorgeous area and the weather is just perfect and warm, like it hasn't been in a long time. Enjoy it!! I'm actually taking my visiting cousin today up to Paradise to check out the big hill up close. Maybe I'll see some vftters?

FWIW - This may be a bit geeked out but it has served me well in the past; you can dig up, say, 2 months of avy and weather reports online and sketch out your snow pack based on what you read in the weather reports. Then compare with what you read in the avy reports and you will know what the layers are telling you and be up to date with weather and conditions. (cbcbd has a very good grip on this after a quick read). I have headed to western ranges fully dialed in on Avy conditions and been able to find exactly what I expected to when digging pits. For me it helps take the mystery and superstition out of my worries.

http://www.nwac.us/

Overall, yes, always safer to go to the beach.

After getting a super view of Rainier's north side, including Liberty Ridge from friends' house on Lake Washington yesterday morning, made a wonderful circum-navigation of the mountain yesterday checking out target lakes for sediment coring studies later in the summer; Reflection and Tipso Lakes still under a few meters of snow, with road still closed to Sunset.

Used the spotting scope at the Paradise Visitor's Center to watch lots of skiers and boarders fly down the snowfields from Muir Camp. Did not see any obvious large avy debris on the south side of the mountain, other than some small releases at about the 8-9000 ft level west of the main climbing routes. Not sure if anyone topped out yesterday, but appeared to be lots of climbers heading up to Muir with full gear yesterday afternoon.

Clouds have moved back in this afternoon, with temperatures cooling off. Rainier was as white with fresh snow yesterday as one usually only sees in mid-winter, when not enclosed by cloud. To the beach tomorrow!

Chip said:

I'm curious personally

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Dude, remember what happened to the cat....

I'm sitting here in the lounge at IMG, taking advantage of their WiFi hotspot and Paul's MacBook. We did the 2-day crevasse rescue skool and had a great time. Conveniently, our two guides for the class are two of the four guides on the Kautz climb.

The conditions on the mountain are improving. Weather has been warm the last couple days and there's been no new precip, so the snowpack is sloughing and consolidating. One of the IMG teams on the DC route is moving up to the Flats today and is planning to summit tomorrow. We strike out tomorrow and aren't planning to summit until Thursday, so we're hopeful.

Next report on Friday, unless we bail and come down early.

well, I guess no news is good news so far for these guys. they should be down today. don't know if they had any views, but hopefully they had a safe, successful climb.

What's proper mountain etiquette ? Is it bad luck to wish somebody good luck on a climb ?

Hopefully, he wasn’t getting daily updates on the tragic event next door on Hood.

Hey kids, as I'm sitting here in the IMG lounge awaiting my turn in the shower (hoo-boy, do I stink!) I just wanted to pop in and let you know that we didn't end up summiting.

The Kautz Ice Chute was re-named the Kautz Avalanche Chute by our guides and they turned us round at about 11K. Still an awesome trip, though. It had everything: postholing, glacier travel in whiteout conditions, postholing, great guides, postholing, wonderful food, winter camping above the clouds, postholing, meeting a bunch of new folks and postholing.

We just hung around high camp yesterday and the two guides who ran our 2-day crevasse rescue school showed Paul and me some advanced techniques (like a 200 level class), so now we have some mad crevasse rescue skillz.

Full TR and photos to come when we're back on the Right Coast.

J.Dub said:

Hey kids, as I'm sitting here in the IMG lounge awaiting my turn in the shower (hoo-boy, do I stink!) I just wanted to pop in and let you know that we didn't end up summiting.

The Kautz Ice Chute was re-named the Kautz Avalanche Chute by our guides and they turned us round at about 11K. Still an awesome trip, though. It had everything: postholing, glacier travel in whiteout conditions, postholing, great guides, postholing, wonderful food, winter camping above the clouds, postholing, meeting a bunch of new folks and postholing.

We just hung around high camp yesterday and the two guides who ran our 2-day crevasse rescue school showed Paul and me some advanced techniques (like a 200 level class), so now we have some mad crevasse rescue skillz.

Full TR and photos to come when we're back on the Right Coast.

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Good to hear that you guys had a great time; the Kautz looked really gnarly from the road on Saturday. But, you never know until you get up close. I think that Rainier guides
are as good as those anywhere in the world for assessing avy conditions and teaching crevasse rescue techniques.