Heavy Rain Forecast

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peakbagger

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The whites in general look like they are going to be hit with a lot of rain in a short perior with the requisite flood warnings going into Friday. Things are supposed to clear by late Friday, but with the amount of rain in such a short period and the added potential due to plugged culverts from leaf drop, it will be worth having a backup plan for weekend hikes as some of the dirt roads leading to trailheads could get damaged. I expect water crossings may be also be a challenge

Starting to rethink the hike up Moosilaukee via the Benton trail this weekend ;) as it has A: Long gravel road (Tunnel Brook Road) for an approach, B: A significant stream crossing a short way in. Then again, it probably wont be that crowded. :)
 
LRiz said:
Does this mean I should change my plans to hike Owl's Head? :confused:
Click to expand...

are you still afraid to get your feet wet? last time i made those river crossings we all just left our snowshoes on. it seemed to help
 
Larisa , you will need to keep a good eye on the water gauges. Then again at your pace, I expect you will skim over the water :D.

The one I recomend to watch is

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nh/nwis/uv/?site_no=01074520&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060

This station is very close by the Owls head area. Its going to reflect how much water is coming down from the Pemi area very well. If it reflects a downtrend Friday night towards the 4.5 foot level, you are probably okay but it would be best to check in the AM if at all possible. I would expect that Sunday would be a better day to let things dry out.
 
On that gauge, dropping below 650 cfps and 6.5 feet was crossable in November 2007 using the BPBW and skipping the first two crossings. I.e., I did it on November 17.





Tim
 
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Thanks to all for the advice. Safety is super important to me!

mookie said:
just get a flotation device for toby
Click to expand...

He's expressed interest in one of these these. I think he's just jealous of my Dirty Girls.

FARMER said:
are you still afraid to get your feet wet? last time i made those river crossings we all just left our snowshoes on. it seemed to help
Click to expand...

Good idea. I might as well start to pack some extra weight to prepare for winter. Do you think people will laugh at me for carrying snowshoes though?
 
It looks like you guys are getting lucky so far compared to the Catskills. I've seen a few gauges that are up by a factor of 10x already!
 
LRiz said:
Does this mean I should change my plans to hike Owl's Head? :confused:
Click to expand...

I've done it when smarter people on VFTT turned around. Even if you did the bushwhack the smaller brook crossings likely will be knee deep (Liberty Brook was on a 6' guy) and moving fast. On my return I followed Franconia Brook until I got to the falls trail, a decent bushwhack IMO.

I'd make other plans instead. Moosilauke from the lodge, Pierce, Ike are nice if the wind isn't a factor, Pierce probably okay too.

From what I see on the big maps, pressure gradient Saturday may make it blustery on the more open summits.

Except for the wrong state here, This paragraph from MSN article:

The National Weather Service expected major flooding by Friday in several areas: Conestoga River at Lancaster, Pa., where many homes could be affected; Schuylkill River at Reading, Pa., where street flooding could occur; Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa., where businesses could be flooded and residents evacuated; Baker River at Rumney, Vt.; and Pemigewasset River at Plymouth, Vt.
 
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peakbagger said:
The whites in general look like they are going to be hit with a lot of rain in a short perior with the requisite flood warnings going into Friday. Things are supposed to clear by late Friday, but with the amount of rain in such a short period and the added potential due to plugged culverts from leaf drop, it will be worth having a backup plan for weekend hikes as some of the dirt roads leading to trailheads could get damaged. I expect water crossings may be also be a challenge

Starting to rethink the hike up Moosilaukee via the Benton trail this weekend ;) as it has A: Long gravel road (Tunnel Brook Road) for an approach, B: A significant stream crossing a short way in. Then again, it probably wont be that crowded. :)
Click to expand...

The Tunnel Brook Road should be fine; I've never seen it flood. The Tunnel Brook itself is another story. That will be a tough to impossible crossing.
 
NECN sez "Major river flooding forecast Fri PM on Pemigewasset River, Plymouth NH & Baker River, Rumney. Both 4cast to be 3rd worst on record."
 
Hey Mike P.

I saw that you posted those central Pennsylvania warnings: My daughter and her husband had a flood that overflowed their cellar and the dining-room ceiling collapsed. Destruction everywhere in the region.
I think that their house is about 12-15 feet above the creek normally. It's very bad there.
Not as bad here in Eastern Pennsylvania but my friend in SW Connecticut said it was really bad there, too.
 
FWIW... hard rain and occasionally gusty winds last night in the Southern Whites. The small brook in my back yard (@ 1,600 feet in Waterville Valley), which was nearly dried up earlier in the week is flowing steady-strong again, but nowhere near "flood stage". There were several small trees down on the road when I took my kids to school at 8am.

We had a lull in the rain from about 6am till just the last few minutes, when both the rain and wind started to pick back up again. This is consistent with the radar, which shows a wide band of extremely heavy rain moving east from the Vermont border now. NWS in Gray is calling for an additional 1-2 inches of rain today, with winds 9 to 14mph out of the northwest. I would say gusts right now are considerably higher than that.

You might (might) be OK on smaller brook crossings if my back yard is any indication, but it is NOT pleasant out there right now.
 
It looks like the front went through the whites around 2 to 3 PM today (Friday), If we use yesterday's drop in flow, the pemi gauge will drop at least 3 feet in 12 hours and I expect more as the drop in flow yesterday occured when it was still raining (but not as heavilly). Optimisitically,it may drop 5 feet by 7 AM which would get it below the 6 foot threshold that the prior psot reported earlier was crossable.

BTW, the rain did hammer the leaves quite a bit but I still think its going to be close to peak this weekend.
 
The western and parts of the central Whites got hit by minor/major flooding. I just got back from Kinsman Notch area, and 112 where 6+inches of rain have left large mudslides along 112 in Stillwater. The Wild Ammonoosuc is very high and is near breaching several of the upper bridges. Other than that, the Lincoln/Kanc area handled the water decently. The Pemi is supposed to crest 17 feet though in Plymouth. Watch out for this crossings this weekend!

I posted some photos below. The first one is an actual mudslide as it is happening on 112. Others are just the high water.

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=33329503&l=6e004f3248&id=44601302

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=33329509&l=8094234b1e&id=44601302

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=33329513&l=de81716183&id=44601302

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?p...0&id=44601302&ref=fbx_album&fbid=580829037237



-Matt
 
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