missing hiker - Lancaster, NH

Driver8 said:

The one thing I'll conjecture in her defense is that, per the Obs hourly reports, at 5 am the conditions, for a very strong and experienced hiker such as she was, were not terrible - 35-ish mph winds and -4 F, probably much calmer down at 1200 feet elevation. By 10, conditions were deteriorating pretty rapidly. The track history from her PLB will give a better idea of what happened, whether she summited one or both of the peaks, was trying to retreat to shelter or to find the Valley Way down, whatever was the case.

I'd not go out into such conditions, but maybe she was well ready to turn back from submitting M or A, or both, or maybe she was trying to, and got injured. The location where they reportedly found her, per Mike Cherim on his FB page - he was on the S&R team - suggests she was trying to get out of the worst of the winds by descending the steep wall south of Star Lake. Maybe the fall she took, per Mike, was here, maybe before. She might have suffered multiple falls or injuries.

We'll likely learn more with time. It's sad that she got into such a bad situation - one would like to think she was not engaged here unreasonably, but it's hard to see how so, sorry to say.

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The forecast was for far worse weather. Even if it was decent at 5AM and she was a strong hiker she was going to be on some pretty dangerous peaks in pretty dangerous weather. If we all made decisions based on the trail head conditions only there would be a hell of a lot more accidents.

Totally agree, Daytrip - maybe, though, she thought she could snag Madison and maybe Adams, and some good harsh conditions experience in the process and just got in over her head where she might not have. Attempting even so "little" as M and A in these conditions solo is the telltale mistake, seems like, along with not turning back at tree-line.

One can't imagine that she hadn't checked weather forecasts before departure. Perhaps had gotten through a few hairy scrapes before and thought, "I'll get through this ok, and I can always turn back or shelter." Terribly sad.

Driver8 said:

Totally agree, Daytrip - maybe, though, she thought she could snag Madison and maybe Adams and just got in over her head where she might not have. Doing this solo is the telltale mistake, seems like, along with not turning back at tree-line. Terribly sad.

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I think the mistake was made in the parking lot personally. Those weather condition were horrendous, everyone knew they were going to be horrendous and she went for it anyway. It is everyone's right to decide for themselves but she took log odds deciding to do that hike.

First off, my condolences to her family, regardless of the details, a young life is lost. As a long time soloist, both here and In CO, I have certain stipulations attatched to my climbs depending on the conditions and where I am. I can and have been out in some tough conditions and there are many who can climb in pretty tough stuff. One of my main criteria for assessing conditions, is my chance of survival in a accident involving a forced bivi. I cover all my bases and plan for the worst case senario, if that senario occurs, my chances are survival are better then good. On the day we are disscussing, I would not have deemed it prudent or within my window of safety. One great climber I heard refer to it as " Intellegent Risk Management" Alot of the accidents, deaths and or rescues we here about, are simply people who for whatever reason, are not prepared to deal with thier own situation, either equipment or experience or both lacking. Not knowing this woman, I would be selfish to guess or speculate on her skill-set or experience. People summit 8000 meter peaks in conditions such as these, so it can be done, but the window and margin of safety is thin, you might say Anorexic.

I look at it as probabilities or odds. If I bet a million dollars on red or black on a roulette wheel I can win or lose but my chances are good I could win. If I bet a million dollars that I can predict this week's winning Powerball number I can also win or lose, but it is VERY LIKELY I will lose. Not impossible, but very likely. When you weigh the odds of a successful half-Presi traverse in the conditions forecast for Sunday the decision seems decidedly poor. She could have done it, but its VERY LIKELY she would not have been able, and the cost of not being successful went far beyond any sum of money.

If the SAR staff wouldn't go out in those conditions, as a group, in the shape they're in, with the knowledge the have, the equipment at their disposal, knowing a life was at stake, I think that speaks volumes about the difficulty of the conditions and how prudent it was to be out there. And the conditions she was out in were WORSE than the ones that caused SAR to pull the plug on their efforts. I just keep coming back to that. There comes a point where an endeavor is impossible no matter who you are, how you are equipped or what your experience level is.

DayTrip said:

I look at it as probabilities or odds. If I bet a million dollars on red or black on a roulette wheel I can win or lose but my chances are good I could win. If I bet a million dollars that I can predict this week's winning Powerball number I can also win or lose, but it is VERY LIKELY I will lose. Not impossible, but very likely. When you weigh the odds of a successful half-Presi traverse in the conditions forecast for Sunday the decision seems decidedly poor. She could have done it, but its VERY LIKELY she would not have been able, and the cost of not being successful went far beyond any sum of money.
ter
If the SAR staff wouldn't go out in those conditions, as a group, in the shape they're in, with the knowledge the have, the equipment at their disposal, knowing a life was at stake, I think that speaks volumes about the difficulty of the conditions and how prudent it was to be out there. And the conditions she was out in were WORSE than the ones that caused SAR to pull the plug on their efforts. I just keep coming back to that. There comes a point where an endeavor is impossible no matter who you are, how you are equipped or what your experience level is.

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Your reasoning parallel's mine and that of most others here, DayTrip, I'd guess. Terribly sad in any event - agree with sierra. Hopefully, for all our sake, this especially mean winter will start to let up soon, lest we be donning snowshoes well into June, and lest any more lives be lost out in our mountains.

peakbagger said:

Some additional details from WMUR, the hikers husband dropped her off Sunday morning, she was planning to do a half presi (Madison, Adams, Jefferson & Washington) day hike and get picked up at Washington (they didn't say which trailhead).

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The article also states she was from New York City...hmm...perhaps this comes down to summits fever? She might have thought..."those weather forecasts are exaggerated." One thing for sure...similar to the SAR team...if the weather forecast is wrong and the conditions are severe...turn around and try another long 3-day weekend.

I would venture to guess many people look at the Presidentials without firsthand knowledge and have very little idea, how bad it gets up there. I mean 5000ft peaks, how bad can they be? To those who know, the answer is simply, really bad.

rup said:

Apparently on MT Madison?

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/4c7c36ee7d46404d88574aa855246d6d/NH--Hiker-Search

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jniehof said:

It's Doppler, not triangulation, but they require two tracks to confirm (or one Doppler + GPS signal). GPS block III is supposed to support PLB reception and geolocation based on time difference of arrival--one could think of it as "GPS in reverse" (multiple satellites receiving a signal and determining its location, vs. one receiver listening to multiple satellites to determine its location), although technically it's the direction GPS was designed to work originally.

Re: going out in these conditions. It was ten years ago (maybe more) when someone went out in fairly bad conditions for a solo Bonds traverse because he was in training for Everest and shaking down gear, skill, and conditioning. It's not uncommon. He didn't come back, either. The idea is that it's better to get in trouble on Bondcliff than Camp 3, but "better" is no guarantee. My condolences to family or friends who may be following here.

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My condolences too. I do want to bring up some technical issues for people to consider in the future.

WMUR web tv quoted an official saying the coordinates were very noisy and moving within a one mile "circumference". Assuming the word "circumference" was not misused (an odd way to specify position error) , that's a circle with a radius of 280 meters.

Because the Air Force transacted the coordinates, I'm pretty sure its a 406MHZ beacon monitored by GOES and two other satellites

However the radius seems way too small for an doppler estimate (2-5km) and way too big for a gps (100m).
-the official may have mispoke and meant "radius" of 1 mile. This matches doppler capabilities. It should be apparent that this is not great for locating a missing hiker.
-the unit could have been gps equipped--its my understanding that the data format is chopped to a 100meter grid because there is not enough "room" to transmit a longer, more precise number. With rounding error that becomes +/- 200 meters. With noise, even more. Not great for white out conditions.
-the unit could have been gps equipped and the hiker was moving
-I cannot find any 406MHz units that are guaranteed to operate within specification below -4 deg F.

For some details about the victim of this unfortunate accident.

Click Here.

This provides a human side to a hike gone tragically wrong.

Peace to her husband and loved ones.
cb

Driver8 said:

The track history from her PLB will give a better idea of what happened

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PLBs do not normally record a track history. You may be thinking of a SPOT.

I'm also not sure what her relevant experience is. Media claims "very experienced" and I'm taking that at face value, but we know what a range that can be. The Monitor claims no experience in the Presis at all. It also quotes F&G "You shouldn’t be hiking in this weather", which I guess answers the question of whether this would be considered negligent. (I don't think F&G has made efforts in the past to recoup costs in the event of a fatality.)

ChrisB, I wouldn't trust anything in the Daily Fail's reporting. Note they confused Madison with Washington (which is a nice argument to have over massif vs. range, but still.)

It's hubris, or foolishness, or a combination of the two. At the very least, it was poor judgement to attempt with weather forecast, no matter how far the drive. Sad to see another life lost up here but also hate to put our SAR folks at risk. That could have ended badly for them, as well. I salute them and hope I never have to meet them in an emergency situation, except to lend a hand for a rescue of others.

Condolences to her husband, family and friends. So tragic.

More details will emerge over time to provide a more complete picture of experience level, intent and maybe what exactly went wrong.
Peace,

Mike

I'll guess they were considering the whole range with the 6300 ft mention and rounding off of Washington's 6,288. It is the same way they track Mt. Washington fatalities.

Her death is sad and tragic but with the conditions, sadly, not surprising. History in the area in brutal weather in NH showed how this was not the day for this kind of trip. The temps dove all day long and the wind picked up mid-day and later. (Holmes in 2004 in the Bonds & Twins and Haas/Tinkham in 1995)

Not sure we'll get more details of where she went between 5:00 AM when she was dropped off and 3:30 when she activated the PLB. Assuming a start that would take her up over Madison (or to the hut) first, she should have emerged above treeline around 8:00. Looking at the NETC site, very little Sunday activity, Tecumseh and a Liberty attempt were the only 4K's listed and for a holiday weekend, that's very light traffic.

I don't claim to be prescient but did hope that this thread would be read by someone who might pause and think a bit http://www.vftt.org/forums/showthread.php?55375-A-recipe-for-a-downright-nasty-weekend

People familiar with accident investigation know that a series of errors are often jointly responsible for the outcome. In this instance, choosing the planned route in the face of the forecasted weather, doing it solo in those circumstances and going "fast and light" have to be near the top of the list.

Remix said:

My condolences too. I do want to bring up some technical issues for people to consider in the future.

WMUR web tv quoted an official saying the coordinates were very noisy and moving within a one mile "circumference". Assuming the word "circumference" was not misused (an odd way to specify position error) , that's a circle with a radius of 280 meters.

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I wondered whether the victim might have continued moving after sending the alert, which might itself have introduced some of the variation in reported location, as received.

Maybe the critical element of this case might be found in the Concord Monitor's report, quoting Lt. Wayne Saunders of NH Game and Fish, that this was this person's first hike of the Presidentials. He said she had "sufficient [gear] for a day hike in decent weather." Sounds like no sleeping bag or tent.

A skilled and accomplished mountaineer, she may have underestimated the peril she was hiking into and overestimated her skill level relative to it. She was hiking into conditions of a sort top level mountaineers seek to avoid in the Himalayas, the stuff of epic tragedy such as Jon Krakauer recounted in Into Thin Air, and alone, at that. Wonder if she crossed paths with any fellow hikers at all Saturday, much less Sunday. Terrible shame.

I'm sorry this young woman has lost her life. In the end, everyone chooses their own path but there is a reason for the fact that everyone's head is spinning on this board. Attempting the described hike in these extreme conditions is not just inadvisable or even reckless. It is not pushing the envelope. It is a virtual suicide mission. Whoever said that the fatal mistake was made in the parking lot is right on target.

Driver8 said:

A skilled and accomplished mountaineer, she may have underestimated the peril she was hiking into and overestimated her skill level relative to it. She was hiking into conditions of a sort top level mountaineers seek to avoid in the Himalayas, the stuff of epic tragedy such as Jon Krakauer recounted in Into Thin Air, and alone, at that. Wonder if she crossed paths with any fellow hikers at all Saturday, much less Sunday. Terrible shame.

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Without much detail yet, I don't want to speculate too much, but it would not be the first time an experienced moutaineer has underestimated the degree of difficulty of a Northern Presidential Traverse. Conditions in the Northern Presidentials this past weekend were likely as brutal as any mountain range on earth. I can't imagine anyone with familiarity of the range going into those mountains under those conditions.

Truly sad. I expect we will hear much more about this.

sardog1 said:

People familiar with accident investigation know that a series of errors are often jointly responsible for the outcome. In this instance, choosing the planned route in the face of the forecasted weather, doing it solo in those circumstances and going "fast and light" have to be near the top of the list.

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Her pack in one of the pics [on the link for post 30, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...hire-treacherous-conditions-100mph-winds.html ] looks very full. In fact she seems to be wearing a absolute down suit below tree line. That seems to me imho she was prone to getting cold. Also she seemed very small to begin with. One more thought, if she activated her beacon earlier in the day maybe she got cold when she got above tree line. just my 2 cents..Homework was Not done on this climb...