Time to pay very close attention to the avalanche hazard

Some of us are exhilarated about the upcoming dump of heavy snow preceding this weekend. A subset of that group is already thinking about what it will mean for the avalanche hazard. If you have any plans for the Presidential Range and some other similar slopes, you should also.

From the Mount Washington Avalanche Center:

"Monday night and Tuesday brought warm temperatures and rain to the mountain. Yesterday, temperatures steadily declined ending the day with a trace of new snow. West and NW winds today in the 45-60mph range will decrease slightly. We may see up to 2” of new snow today from lingering moisture. The big story is the upcoming 48 hours and the developing Nor’easter. Several models are calling for 24” along with strong winds.

"SNOWPACK: Our snowpack hit the reset button yesterday. A ¼” of water percolated into the snow. This fell lightly and over an extended period of time, allowing the snowpack time to adjust to a new load. Yesterday’s drop in temperature created a very firm snow surface. Keep in mind that this firm potentially slick surface will become a bed surface after Thursday’s storm." – AVALANCHE ADVISORY

Translation: The stage is being set for the possibility of big slab avalanches this weekend and perhaps beyond.

I was just having a conversation with my son during a lunch break. He wanted to go to Tuckerman Ravine Saturday and I said I'm only going to HoJo's or not much further than the first aid cache at the bottom of the ravine as I anticipate the avalanche danger will not be moderate ;-)

Here we go – today's advisory:

"Huntington Ravine and Tuckerman Ravine avalanche danger will increase from LOW to CONSIDERABLE today. All forecast areas will have CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Natural avalanches will be possible and human-triggered avalanches likely. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential.

"Avalanche danger will rapidly increase through the afternoon and evening hours. Travel in avalanche terrain near and after dark is not recommended.

"AVALANCHE PROBLEM: Wind Slab and Storm Slab will compete for the primary avalanche hazard position today. Snow will increase in intensity in the afternoon, increasing our avalanche hazard from the current Low rating towards Considerable as natural avalanches become possible and human-triggered avalanches become more likely. By evening and overnight, large or widespread natural avalanches will become likely as snowfall rates increase. Safe travel today will be all about timing and keeping an eye on rates of snowfall, ridgetop winds, and other people above you acting as triggers. A hard, icy bed surface will make self-arrest and escape from even a small avalanche very difficult."

AVALANCHE ADVISORY

I actually got an avalanche advisory on my phone from the weather app I have while I was driving through Gorham,NH yesterday afternoon. Don't recall that ever happening before. Could be biblical!

sardog1 said:

All forecast areas will have CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger.

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As a reminder to those without fresh formal avalanche training, Considerable is the level where most fatalities happen, because people consistently underestimate how bad it is. The hazard is not frequently obvious on most standard hiking routes in the Whites, but it does exist: e.g. the Lion's Head winter route has slid in the past, and the east snowfields of the Washington summit cone slide fairly frequently and could pose a hazard from around roughly the Lion's Head/Alpine Garden junction.

99+% of the time the "trade routes" are fine even when there's avalanche hazard elsewhere in the range...knowing when it's the 1% is the job of avalanche classes.

Is this type of warning/advisory, similar to a weather advisory ever been given like this before? Is it something new or are the conditions going to be that bad that it is warranted?

The advisories have been around for years but the press seems to have picked up on this which is a good thing. Especially on a holiday week, folks are coming from all over and may not realize the hazards.

The two snow rangers running the ravines are new and they may also have a new approach.

It's probably a good thing making the notification this way. Maybe it will keep some people at home and not have the, "We've come all this way, let's just go for it." mentality.

To clarify a couple of points:

1. A daily advisory has been issued during avalanche season for many years by the WMNF snow rangers.
2. I posted excerpts from the last two to substantiate my point about the mechanism that is being set up and the need to pay heed.
3. I ain't no gubmint employee (married to one, though), but I do admire their work on this and wish more people would make it part of their daily diet in the winter.

Carry on.

Unfortunately there is the "chicken little" problem. If the warnings and advisories are over hyped then they lose their effectiveness.

During avalanche season every hiker to the ravines from Pinkham Notch walk right by a bilingual warning board. Its highly likely that they will also pass a snow ranger or a member of the volunteer friends of Tuckerman's while heading to Tuckerman's Ravine. If they are heading to adjacent ravines, they pass the sign at the Pinkham but they may not meet anyone past that point and then they definitely are at a higher risk.

peakbagger said:

Unfortunately there is the "chicken little" problem. If the warnings and advisories are over hyped then they lose their effectiveness.

During avalanche season every hiker to the ravines from Pinkham Notch walk right by a bilingual warning board. Its highly likely that they will also pass a snow ranger or a member of the volunteer friends of Tuckerman's while heading to Tuckerman's Ravine. If they are heading to adjacent ravines, they pass the sign at the Pinkham but they may not meet anyone past that point and then they definitely are at a higher risk.

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Joey bag of donuts will always come up from the flatlands with only his cell phone thinking he is a climber whether or not "chicken little" exist or not. What would be interesting is if the overall percentage of accidents and or rescues has change proportionately either negatively or positively with recent efforts to increase awareness (ex.Hike Safe Program, increased condition reporting on weather, Avalanche awareness) in relation to increased use of recent years.

skiguy said:

Joey bag of donuts will always come up from the flatlands with only his cell phone thinking he is a climber whether or not "chicken little" exist or not. What would be interesting is if the overall percentage of accidents and or rescues has change proportionately either negatively or positively with recent efforts to increase awareness (ex.Hike Safe Program, increased condition reporting on weather, Avalanche awareness) in relation to increased use of recent years.

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I don't have access to figures for the WMNF. Experience in Southcentral Alaska, where avalanche forecasts have been an on-again, off-again, now on-again feature over the last couple of decades, suggests that it works.

From the National Weather Service in Gray, Maine, this afternoon:

"THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE FOREST
SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH.

THE US FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER HAS ISSUED A
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING.

* TIMING...IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY AT MIDNIGHT.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE CUTLER RIVER DRAINAGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
MOUNT WASHINGTON INCLUDING FORECAST AREAS IN TUCKERMAN AND
HUNTINGTON RAVINES. WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN OTHER AREAS
OUTSIDE THOSE FORECAST BY THE AVALANCHE CENTER.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WARNING AREA
WILL RISE TO HIGH ON FRIDAY AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ELEVATED ON
SATURDAY.

* REASON/IMPACTS...RECENT HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH WIND WILL
LIKELY CREATE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY OFF OF...AND OUT FROM UNDERNEATH...SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30
DEGREES. AVALANCHES MAY RUN LONG DISTANCES AND CAN RUN ONTO LOWER
ANGLED SLOPES AND ONTO THE FLOOR OF RAVINES.

TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

SIMILAR AVALANCHE DANGER MAY EXIST AT LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE
COVERAGE AREA OF THIS OR ANY AVALANCHE CENTER.

CONSULT THE CURRENT AVALANCHE ADVISORY AT
WWW.MOUNTWASHINGTONAVALANCHECENTER.ORG FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION."

jniehof said:

As a reminder to those without fresh formal avalanche training, Considerable is the level where most fatalities happen, because people consistently underestimate how bad it is. The hazard is not frequently obvious on most standard hiking routes in the Whites, but it does exist: e.g. the Lion's Head winter route has slid in the past, and the east snowfields of the Washington summit cone slide fairly frequently and could pose a hazard from around roughly the Lion's Head/Alpine Garden junction.

99+% of the time the "trade routes" are fine even when there's avalanche hazard elsewhere in the range...knowing when it's the 1% is the job of avalanche classes.

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Are avalanche courses taught anywhere in NH for the general public? (I assume they are but not as common maybe as out West or other places). I'd be interested to attend one of these if cost and length of course were not too prohibitive. I've read a lot on the topic but that seems like one of the things where you need to be out there in the conditions to really get a handle on the dynamics of it all.

DayTrip said:

Are avalanche courses taught anywhere in NH for the general public?

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Yes, e.g. Vermont class, NH class. Chuck Boyd, who is teaching the Smuggler's Notch class, was one of the instructors when I did Avy I way too long ago (I need to schedule a refresher); he's fantastic. The NSP guys are usually fine with having somebody around on slowshoes, but ask first. There's also a list of classes on AIARE's site; you can sort by state. Most of the local ones are offered by guide services; people may have experiences to share. Chauvin in particular has a good rep.

Once you've taken the class, a good way to stay up to date is the Eastern Snow and Avalanche Workshop, usually November-ish somewhere around the greater Conway area (looks like it was Fryeburg this year.)

jniehof said:

Yes, e.g. Vermont class, NH class. Chuck Boyd, who is teaching the Smuggler's Notch class, was one of the instructors when I did Avy I way too long ago (I need to schedule a refresher); he's fantastic. The NSP guys are usually fine with having somebody around on slowshoes, but ask first. There's also a list of classes on AIARE's site; you can sort by state. Most of the local ones are offered by guide services; people may have experiences to share. Chauvin in particular has a good rep.

Once you've taken the class, a good way to stay up to date is the Eastern Snow and Avalanche Workshop, usually November-ish somewhere around the greater Conway area (looks like it was Fryeburg this year.)

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Thanks. 3 days and $275-$400 is definitely more of a commitment than I can make right now, especially as more of a curiosity than a necessity for me given my current hiking abilities. I'll save the links for down the road though. I was hoping for more of a 1 day informational course as opposed to certification of any sort.

I was actually just browsing through the Mount Washington Avalanche site and stumbled on a link that mentioned current avalanche training curriculum is actually be updated this season and divided into recreational and professional segments. Link: http://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/pdf/TheAvalancheReview/TAR_33_3_Feb_2015.pdf Article starts on Page 30. Having no experience with the old course I'm not sure how this is different but it sounds like it makes sense. As someone who is not a group leader, SAR member or in need of professional certification a generalized class in tune with assessing the conditions would be more helpful.

It also mentions existing awareness courses prior to the Level 1,2,3 system which sounds like what I'd be interested in but I don't see that on any of the sites.

I'll come back to the topic of avalanche training in its various guises. Meanwhile, here's a mini-course in slab avalanches.

When I left the house today (after three hours of removing an 18-inch snowfall from various surfaces), this woodshed was still clad in an undisturbed blanket of new snow of the same depth. During the day, the air temperature warmed a little, probably heating the under surface of the shed roof enough to form a thin layer of meltwater under the snow. The result is a natural slab avalanche – cohesive snow atop a surface it is not bonded to well, on a slope (in this case, a very modest slope), waiting for some idjit to pass below it. No idjits were harmed or even inconvenienced in the making of this image. YMMV, especially if you ignore this weekend's warning. (Click on the pic to see it better.)

They do come in larger versions as well:

ACCIDENT REPORT: EAST FORK MATANUSKA RIVER HEADWATERS, ALASKA

DayTrip said:

I was hoping for more of a 1 day informational course as opposed to certification of any sort.

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AIARE lists a two-hour "Avalanche Awareness" course and a 1-2 day "Introduction to Avalanches" as part of their program, but I can't find any actually offered. I suspect the level of instructor investment needed is not much less than doing the full Avy I, so it's not worth it.

Self-study with Snow Sense + some maps, and an open eye while hiking (even in summer...carry an inclinometer and compare to your estimate of slope steepness), could probably get you a good chunk of the way, i.e., a knowlege of what avy terrain is so you know to stay away!