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  1. #1
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    Private Campgrounds can be open in NH

    I was not aware that private campgrounds can be open currently in NH.The USFS and State of NH campgrounds are closed but private campgrounds can be open.Some towns are questioning this https://www.unionleader.com/news/hea...fa214ccec.html

    Many resort towns require a 14 day quarantine for anyone coming from an area with active Corona Virus. Hard to envision 14 day quarantining in a camper with or without a hookup.

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    This does seem odd to me. Not sure what the rationale would be to permit them to open.

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    Senior Member Tom Rankin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NHClimber View Post
    This does seem odd to me. Not sure what the rationale would be to permit them to open.
    Economics....
    Tom Rankin
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    Senior Member ChrisB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peakbagger View Post
    I was not aware that private campgrounds can be open currently in NH.The USFS and State of NH campgrounds are closed but private campgrounds can be open.Some towns are questioning this https://www.unionleader.com/news/hea...fa214ccec.html

    Many resort towns require a 14 day quarantine for anyone coming from an area with active Corona Virus. Hard to envision 14 day quarantining in a camper with or without a hookup.
    I think in NH it is common for folks without means to live in campgrounds during the warmer months.
    Nobody told me there'd be days like these
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    Senior Member sierra's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisB View Post
    I think in NH it is common for folks without means to live in campgrounds during the warmer months.
    Some have the means and do it anyway. They live in the South all winter, then come back for the summer.

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    If it's economics, seems like an odd choice to jump start the economy.

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    If you look at the maps of CV-19 cases in NH there is a pretty distinct split between the more urban counties along the Mass border and the rest of the state. There are only two areas where community transmission has been identified. The campgrounds tend to be in the rural areas where new cases have been relatively static for a few weeks and the local vulnerable populations are in self quarantine so even if there are carriers fleeing the cities they dont have a lot of potential to get at the local population.

    Room and meals tax tied to tourism is major revenue to NH since there is no state income tax. Its mud season now with black flies soon to make an appearence but the state is desperate to salvage what they can of the tourism season. Bike Week is the unofficial start of the season and I expect there is desperation in the Lakes Region to pull that off.

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    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peakbagger View Post
    If you look at the maps of CV-19 cases in NH there is a pretty distinct split between the more urban counties along the Mass border and the rest of the state. There are only two areas where community transmission has been identified. The campgrounds tend to be in the rural areas where new cases have been relatively static for a few weeks and the local vulnerable populations are in self quarantine so even if there are carriers fleeing the cities they dont have a lot of potential to get at the local population.

    Room and meals tax tied to tourism is major revenue to NH since there is no state income tax. Its mud season now with black flies soon to make an appearence but the state is desperate to salvage what they can of the tourism season. Bike Week is the unofficial start of the season and I expect there is desperation in the Lakes Region to pull that off.
    This will be interesting as we have more protest going on and a CT layer in Fairfield County, where the bulk of CT's cases are, filing a suit against Gov. Lamont saying his Executive Orders are unconstitutional. In yesterday's Hartford Courant, we had 12 pages of Obits & that does not include Fairfield County. I knew two people in Sunday's paper who died from Covid-19. Both in their 90's, one a classmate's father who drove me to Soccer camp decades ago & my first manager in an office environment. I suspect that Bike Week will have no one social distancing, looking to pack bars and restaurants and few wearing masks when not riding. I'll be shocked if we don't have a second wave causing another closure. (Dr. Pessimist signing off)
    Have fun & be safe
    Mike P.

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    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peakbagger View Post
    If you look at the maps of CV-19 cases in NH there is a pretty distinct split between the more urban counties along the Mass border and the rest of the state. There are only two areas where community transmission has been identified.
    This is an interesting point. It made me think of this: https://xkcd.com/1138/. To be fair, most things make me think of an xkcd comic, but I progress...

    It's pretty well established that more populated areas are seeing more cases, but I was curious if the rates were consistent across counties. I made this Google Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing, which anyone with this link can view. What I found is that the rates are not consistent - the two counties along the MA border (Rockingham and Hillsborough) have, by far, the highest rates. This makes sense - they have the most people, so more chances for interactions. There are certainly other factors (people in those counties might travel more, etc.), but we'll ignore that because I don't have the data.

    I then wondered, what role does density play in this? So I tabulated population density and compared that to the confirmed infection rate, thinking that more densely populated counties would have higher rates. And they do! There is a strong correlation between density and infection rate (r=.852, where 1.0 = perfect correlation, and 0 = no correlation). Now, we know that correlation is not causation, but I think it's safe to assume that infections aren't making counties more dense.

    So, now that we've normalized rate by density, do we have any outliers? Nothing massive, but Carroll, Grafton, and Rockingham all have higher rates given their density than other counties, while Coos, Belknap, Straffod, and Sullivan have lower rates. The trend is linear, which suggests that as density increases, you can expect an increased infection rate of about 27.6 cases per 100,000 people per square mile (a weird metric, I know - sometimes 'normalizing' makes things weird).

    Feel free to provide any feedback or suggestions, or ask any questions.

    For those are you weary of Google Sheets, here is an image of it:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Senior Member ChrisB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJsName View Post
    So, now that we've normalized rate by density, do we have any outliers? Nothing massive, but Carroll, Grafton, and Rockingham all have higher rates given their density than other counties, while Coos, Belknap, Straffod, and Sullivan have lower rates. The trend is linear, which suggests that as density increases, you can expect an increased infection rate of about 27.6 cases per 100,000 people per square mile (a weird metric, I know - sometimes 'normalizing' makes things weird).
    I wonder what the infection rates for these counties would have looked like if normal travel and visitations had not been preempted by the stay-at-home orders.

    For example, if N Conway, the Lakes Region or great North Woods saw their typical amount of March visitors without limitations, what would infection rates be for these tourist-destination counties? A lot higher is my guess. And that I suppose is the point of stay-at-home.

    Now we have people dressing up like wannabe-soldiers and demanding sanctions be lifted and their "rights" returned to them.

    No end to the weirdness caused by this pandemic.
    Nobody told me there'd be days like these
    Strange days indeed -- most peculiar, mama
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  11. #11
    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisB View Post
    I wonder what the infection rates for these counties would have looked like if normal travel and visitations had not been preempted by the stay-at-home orders.

    For example, if N Conway, the Lakes Region or great North Woods saw their typical amount of March visitors without limitations, what would infection rates be for these tourist-destination counties? A lot higher is my guess. And that I suppose is the point of stay-at-home.
    While the exact impact is hard to quantify, I don't think it's a stretch to assume that unfettered access to tourist destinations would have have led to an increase in cases in ski resort communities like Lincoln and North Conway.

    I think one of the challenges here is understanding what impact the social distancing had. There will be people saying 'why did we do all this damage to the economy when the pandemic wasn't even that bad', ignoring the fact it's because we took action that the pandemic's impact was reduced.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJsName View Post
    Feel free to provide any feedback or suggestions, or ask any questions.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Ssshhh, you will wake the Quants.

  13. #13
    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJsName View Post
    I updated it to add a tab for MA, as well as a combined plot. The trend for MA is not a strong, but still linear. Suffolk County is quite an outlier as it's an order of magnitude more dense, but with a lower than expected confirmed infection rate given the extra density, but that could be due to limited tested.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJsName View Post
    I updated it to add a tab for MA, as well as a combined plot. The trend for MA is not a strong, but still linear. Suffolk County is quite an outlier as it's an order of magnitude more dense, but with a lower than expected confirmed infection rate given the extra density, but that could be due to limited tested.
    Anecdotally, Boston residents seem to be taking things more seriously than the suburbs as far as distancing goes. They also have better access to infrastructure to support distancing.

  15. #15
    Moderator bikehikeskifish's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoshandBaron View Post
    Anecdotally, Boston residents seem to be taking things more seriously than the suburbs as far as distancing goes. They also have better access to infrastructure to support distancing.
    Can you elaborate (on both parts)? I'm curious...

    Tim
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