More trail closings?

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A couple of FL counties are not opening up in the next couple of days. It's been reported that perhaps the FL State Govt is not reporting all info. See URL: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...-stop-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-report The Hill may be a bit slanted, however they are quoting a Tampa Newspaper.

CT just announced their plan for reopening 5/20 and it sounds encouraging. I try to time my stops on my NH trips to on the way up, that's what fast food restaurants are floor, I'm glad I've never looked at the pits at the campsites. (I may have to drink that image out of my mind peakbagger.) We may see whether the FB and Instagram crowd come up less often with a closed hut system or if it will be a zoo this year.

The MATC refers to overflowing privys as "code brown" :eek:
 
Full Announcement


White Mountain National Forest to Open Trailheads
CAMPTON, NH May 1, 2020 – The White Mountain National Forest has re-opened several trail heads that were closed last week. The decision was based on safety concerns due to illegal parking while trailheads were closed, and to alleviate congestion on other locations during a continued demand for local recreation.
The White Mountain National Forest will continue to implement a phase-based opening of the Forest in alignment with the State of New Hampshire. A limited number of sites will remain closed as the Forest continues to coordinate with local communities, the states of New Hampshire and Maine, and partners to address concerns before safely re-opening. A complete list of what is open and what is closed, including those sites still seasonally closed, can be found at: https://www.fs.usda.gov/main/whitemountain/home.
Everyone is urged to take the precautions recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC): https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention.html. These safety precautions will help to maintain a safe environment for employees, visitors, and local communities. Many amenities, such as restrooms and garbage, at sites remain seasonally closed. Visitors should be prepared to pack in and pack out.
White Mountain National Forest offices remain open virtually to protect the health and safety of employees and members of the public during the COVID-19 outbreak. Customers needing information, permits and maps are encouraged to call Forest Headquarters at: (603) 536-6100, Saco Ranger Station (603) 447-5448, and Androscoggin Ranger Station (603) 466-2713 during regular business hours.
Trails listed here: https://www.fs.usda.gov/main/whitemountain/home


Tim
 
Sure - the graph is only as good as the data, and the data is only as good as the reports, and the reports are only as good as the tests and people reporting them . . .

What else do we have that is better? Even with faulty data, I do like this graph, as it allows me to zoom in on the Northeast rather easily. Either VT is doing something more correct than average or they aren't testing/reporting.

I am left wondering why nobody is presenting a stacked area graph (Note: I have looked, but not found this, let me know if you know of one please!) which includes

1. deaths
2. severe cases
3. mild cases
4. recovered cases

All we see is the steady climb. The recovered number is missing. At least stacked area shows you visually the state of total cases over time.

Tim

I have been downloading and plotting the data pretty much since it began in the US. Most of the sources just enumerate the cumulative diagnosed cases and deaths. Many (if not most) mild cases are not recorded and and the only source of data that I have found on recoveries is for my home town.

Some data sources:
Massachusetts (with detailed breakdowns): https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting
CDC (US): https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
COVID Tracking Project (US and all states): https://covidtracking.com/
NY Times (US, all states, all counties): https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data
WHO (all countries): https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

BTW, the log-log plot can get pretty messy with real data and does not give one a sense of the progression with time. I generally prefer a plot of (smoothed) new cases vs. time (the date).

If you want to see how it should be done, check out New Zealand or Australia (data from the WHO).

Doug
 
Full Announcement


White Mountain National Forest to Open Trailheads
CAMPTON, NH May 1, 2020 – The White Mountain National Forest has re-opened several trail heads that were closed last week. The decision was based on safety concerns due to illegal parking while trailheads were closed, and to alleviate congestion on other locations during a continued demand for local recreation.
The White Mountain National Forest will continue to implement a phase-based opening of the Forest in alignment with the State of New Hampshire. A limited number of sites will remain closed as the Forest continues to coordinate with local communities, the states of New Hampshire and Maine, and partners to address concerns before safely re-opening. A complete list of what is open and what is closed, including those sites still seasonally closed, can be found at: https://www.fs.usda.gov/main/whitemountain/home.
Everyone is urged to take the precautions recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC): https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention.html. These safety precautions will help to maintain a safe environment for employees, visitors, and local communities. Many amenities, such as restrooms and garbage, at sites remain seasonally closed. Visitors should be prepared to pack in and pack out.
White Mountain National Forest offices remain open virtually to protect the health and safety of employees and members of the public during the COVID-19 outbreak. Customers needing information, permits and maps are encouraged to call Forest Headquarters at: (603) 536-6100, Saco Ranger Station (603) 447-5448, and Androscoggin Ranger Station (603) 466-2713 during regular business hours.
Trails listed here: https://www.fs.usda.gov/main/whitemountain/home


Tim

While I'm glad they're reversing their decision (for the most part?), I think these announcements will have a worse effect than if they had just left things alone.

It will get enough headlines that some who otherwise would not have considered a trip may now think, "oh, the National Forest is open!" For those who follow rules (however ridiculous the rules are), it will be difficult to figure out what's open and what's not.
 
As usual, way to late to inform the public for this weekend. I expect the FS employees are shaking their heads at this. I guess the WMNF figured out that they were not in synch with NH government.

I do note that Dianas Baths and South Moat are still closed. I guess they really dont want to deal with the politics of Dianas Bath yet.
 
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Do most of the Diana's Bath crowd recreate and exercise or sightsee? I know, with a car spot up South and over the Moats & down to Diana's Bath is a great hike, I did it a few years ago. The near roadside attractions like Diana's Bath & Glen Ellis Falls along with Tucks are amongst the most attractive nuisances, along with the Swift River. They also would tend to attract older people and those with other related issues. (Not sure how they open the Sherman Adams Building, I guess they could take five to ten people up by train car, however the summit photo line would be half way down the road if six feet apart waiting your turn. I suspect port-a-lets and facilities will be rare.
 
The vast majority of people who visit Diana's baths are tourists who have to check if off their must see list. It usually does not impact hikers as they usually spot cars early in the AM when its less busy with the tourists. In the spring before Echo Lake State Park opens up there is a way of parking at Echo Lake and taking the Cathedral ledge trails from the Red Ridge trail. No such luck with North Moat.

I agree reopening Mt Washington State Park facilities are going to be problematical. It already happens to an extent on the autoroad on busy weekends as the parking lots at the summit have limited capacity, the state park could do the same by limiting the number of guests from both the cog and the autoroad. No doubt the cog and the Autoroad will be butting heads on which one has the "right" to deposit visitors on the summit. At least the Cog cant complain about the AMC huts giving him unfair competition. I mentioned in one post that the owner of the Cog had claimed he was going to build a potty car for use of his guests. This was in response to the possibility that overall visitors to the summit would be limited due to lack of septic system capacity. He also offered the state the option of building a sewer line from the summit down the cog right of way and installing leach fields at the base station. This was when he was planning on the cog hotel so it would have been convenient to have some other entity kick in on the cost. From an engineering point of view it would be a pretty interesting and expensive project as the pressure in the line due to the elevation change would be significant at the base station, a real rough number would be around 1700 psi based on 4000 feet of elevation differential. Great place for a hydro turbine but it would require very thick pipes and would decidedly be unpleasant to work on.
 
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I did not see the closings as feasible. The Whites cannot be closed, there are too many ways in. Yosemite, Baxter, those places have only a few entry points, its easy to regulate the traffic in. To be honest with the number of cases in NH and the risk when hiking, the decision to close the trails was a kneejerk reaction and a poor one at that. Yes you will have crowded trailheads, no different then the Walmart supercenter I drove by in Manchester with 400 cars in the lot. You cannot regulate common sense and to punish or restrict people who have it, is just not right. The term "thinning of the herd" seems to apply here.
 
To blame Congress is to grossly over-simplify what has really been happening in the legislative branch over the last decade at least. However, venturing into a coherent counter argument will surely place me over the line of acceptable commentary in this forum. I also take issue with your blanket statement about the Presidency and a "lack of good leaders" over the past few decades. Comparisons of some recent occupants show very stark differences. Am I straddling the line Mr Moderator or have I already crossed it?

Just want to say thank you for your reasonable statement. When I hear someone say "both sides", I immediately recoil because it's not based on a detailed observation. Enough about that. The problem all started when the federal response (WMNF) was in contrast to the state response. Monadnock is a mess.
 
I did not see the closings as feasible. The Whites cannot be closed, there are too many ways in. Yosemite, Baxter, those places have only a few entry points, its easy to regulate the traffic in. To be honest with the number of cases in NH and the risk when hiking, the decision to close the trails was a kneejerk reaction and a poor one at that. Yes you will have crowded trailheads, no different then the Walmart supercenter I drove by in Manchester with 400 cars in the lot. You cannot regulate common sense and to punish or restrict people who have it, is just not right. The term "thinning of the herd" seems to apply here.

Yet I believe a secondary goal of trail closings was to protect the trails from the unusual foot traffic.
 
Yet I believe a secondary goal of trail closings was to protect the trails from the unusual foot traffic.

With all due respect, that makes no sense at all. As busy as they were, they were not holiday busy. They don't close them on The 4th, Labor day, Memorial day. They closed them in a panic, then realized it was a bad call. Hey, I appreciate they made the correction. Nothing worse then standing behind a bad decision.
 
With all due respect, that makes no sense at all. As busy as they were, they were not holiday busy. They don't close them on The 4th, Labor day, Memorial day. They closed them in a panic, then realized it was a bad call. Hey, I appreciate they made the correction. Nothing worse then standing behind a bad decision.

With all due respect back at you, I'm just saying as a volunteer for the AMC that this is in the back of their minds. Obviously, safety first. And obviously, the trails are not as busy as they might be after the snow is gone. You should see what it looks like in southern NH.
 
Trails are more fragile in spring, and the volume of hiking for this time of year is unusually high it appears (for some trails).
The LT closes every year during this time just for that reason.
 
With all due respect, that makes no sense at all. As busy as they were, they were not holiday busy. They don't close them on The 4th, Labor day, Memorial day. They closed them in a panic, then realized it was a bad call. Hey, I appreciate they made the correction. Nothing worse then standing behind a bad decision.

I think we are seeing the "Perfect Storm" of trail use that no Fourth of July could provide:

1. Spring / mud season condx
2. A record number of people out of work
3. Cabin fever from stay-at-home rules and business closures
4. Pent up desire to recreate away from other virus bait

WMNF here we come!!
 
With all due respect back at you, I'm just saying as a volunteer for the AMC that this is in the back of their minds. Obviously, safety first. And obviously, the trails are not as busy as they might be after the snow is gone. You should see what it looks like in southern NH.

I live in southern NH and have been hiking all over, so yes I have seen what's going on. I just don't agree that there is anything going on here, other then people wanting others to stay home. The trails are not being overrun, they are not being destroyed. Yes, some areas are busy, but not at levels that are any different then any other time. The only difference is there is a virus going on and everybody is freaking out. When the dust settles, everything will be just like it was before. The trails will be fine. If anything, people are overly sensitive because they are staying home and many others are not, its pure dissention.
 
Took a ride yesterday through North Conway, up and over the Kanc to Lincoln and back. Trying to find something to eat in Lincoln was pretty difficult. that may be a reason that not many people are hiking, no food! No, the trail heads were not overrun, I was able to park in the Lincoln Woods parking lot, which I think was the first time ever, Champney Falls was maybe half full. We saw the results of a motorcycle accident Just past the Hancock Mountain overlook on the way to Lincoln. Driver wasn't moving, curled up against the guard rail. That kind of put a damper on the drive. There were already enough people hanging around the accident blocking traffic that we kept going. Lots of motorcycles out. We stopped at the Covered Bridge ont he Kanc, something we probably driven by hundreds of times and Sunday, we made an effort to stop at those areas that didn't lead to a mountain that was on some list. it cost me $10 to fill up my car. Crazy!
 
I live in southern NH and have been hiking all over, so yes I have seen what's going on. I just don't agree that there is anything going on here, other then people wanting others to stay home. The trails are not being overrun, they are not being destroyed. Yes, some areas are busy, but not at levels that are any different then any other time. The only difference is there is a virus going on and everybody is freaking out. When the dust settles, everything will be just like it was before. The trails will be fine. If anything, people are overly sensitive because they are staying home and many others are not, its pure dissention.

While your individual experience is clearly different, to say overall trail use hasn't been higher than usual is willful ignorance. Lots that usually lay empty have been spilling out onto roadways. Perhaps the usual lots that are always busy anyway are seeing continued overuse but trails and networks that are typically off the beaten path are seeing more traffic than they would otherwise.
 
There is a significant risk to our hiking trails with the current situation.

WMNF hiking trails are only designed to have a corridor 3 to 4 feet wide and a footbed closer to 1.5 feet wide.

"Social distancing" of 6 feet will result in trails that are 8+ feet wide. Stepping off the footbed (trail creep) results in killing vegetation, damaging root systems, and compacting soil. It only takes a few people stepping in the same place off trail to create this damage. Active trails cannot naturally recover from this damage. Rather, a pendulum swings and pretty soon the damage escalates, taking a once-nice trail into an ugly, eroded mess.

Please think before you step off trail.
 
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