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Thread: More trail closings?

  1. #151
    Senior Member Peppersass's Avatar
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    Thanks iAmKrzys. I see this on page 2 "...any person resident or non-resident, traveling into Maine must immediately self-quarantine for 14
    days or for the balance of 14 days dating from the day of arrival, except when engaging in essential services as defined in Executive Order 19FY 19/20." I'd read an article recently and went back to find it but this one will do. https://wgme.com/news/coronavirus/go...maines-economy Indicates that July/August the 14 day quarantine still will be in affect.
    Peppersass - NEHH, NHW-13/48, NE111-91/115, State HPs-32/50

  2. #152
    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by maineguy View Post
    Well, the curve has been flattened in Maine, and elsewhere in Northern NE. So why are trailheads still closed? I thought the goal was to "flatten the curve". That's what we've been hearing for weeks. Well? Few hospitals were overwhelmed, even in NYC where the USNS Comfort is leaving because it is apparently not needed. Certainly not in northern NE. The new goal appears to be no more cases...and good luck with that. I mean, most of the country has been locked down...where are all these new cases coming from? As many experts have postulated, maybe the lockdown is not only not effective but the wrong thing to do. And remember, those projections had lockdowns and social distancing baked into them. Maine has had a total of 52 deaths as of this morning in a state of 1.3 million. Each governor up here is afraid to be the first to open things up. And of course, the real problem is the proximity of NY and MA.

    https://time.com/5827156/squashing-s...virus-covid19/
    The goal was the flatten the curve to prevent hospital systems from being overrun, which we have done a good job of in New England generally. Now that we've achieved that goal there's a new one. I think of it as being akin to providing life-saving measures to a person. First goal is to get the heart beating again, but there's still a lot of work to do after that.

    The lack of testing right now is still a major issue. From what I read, the only way to get around that issue is to either deploy a vaccine (long-term goal) or increase testing and contact tracing (short-term goal). Otherwise we'll return to unfettered community spread and a massive second wave and all of this will have been for nothing.
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  3. #153
    Senior Member TCD's Avatar
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    Encouragingly, a couple of companies now say they have a good chance of having a vaccine ready by the fall of 2020. And development of widespread testing is proceeding rapidly, as well. In fact, recent information suggests that testing capacity is there, but underutilized for several reasons.

    But if we had universal daily testing, and a vaccine, today, mark my words: there would be some new obstacle put forward to try to prevent a return to "normalcy." Of course there is always more work that should be done, but I think the better analogy is the old expression "moving the goalposts."

  4. #154
    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCD View Post
    Encouragingly, a couple of companies now say they have a good chance of having a vaccine ready by the fall of 2020. And development of widespread testing is proceeding rapidly, as well. In fact, recent information suggests that testing capacity is there, but underutilized for several reasons.

    But if we had universal daily testing, and a vaccine, today, mark my words: there would be some new obstacle put forward to try to prevent a return to "normalcy." Of course there is always more work that should be done, but I think the better analogy is the old expression "moving the goalposts."
    Moving the goalsposts would suggest that we are changing or revising the criteria for flattening the curve, which I don't believe has happened. I also don't believe it was ever stated that the only thing we needed to do was flatten the curve.

    Are you suggesting that there are people who don't want to return to the previous status quo, amd that they are somehow undermining the effort to do so - and aren't sincere in their desire to save lives? I highly doubt that's what you meant, so please clarify.
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  5. #155
    Moderator bikehikeskifish's Avatar
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    My Favorite Graph - customized for the northeast.

    Sample from today:



    Tim
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

Name:	northeast04292020.jpg 
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    Bike, Hike, Ski, Sleep. Eat, Fish, Repeat.

  6. #156
    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJsName View Post
    The term self-quarantine isn't ambiguous. What do you think the goal of the order is with regards to your behavior? Sure, there will be people trying to 'beat the system', as with anything. I suggest not getting too wrapped up in hypotheticals.
    I agree it's not ambiguous and I'm not planning it. I'm also not protesting that the shelter-in place orders are unconstitutional or filing suit saying it is unconstitutional. Some people are though and I suspect the small murmur we hear as New England States have been pretty careful. We should see by Memorial Day if GA, TX and others started too quick & too soon. I hope they are right, I don't feel good about their decision though.

    I'm not a corporate CEO who today called CA's restrictions fascists or the VP who didn't wear a mask when everyone else did. (he gets tested frequently, it's good to be the King.) Many people who have to go to work will not have this option. In local news, Wal-Mart in Worcester closed as 23 employees tested positive.
    Have fun & be safe
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  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by bikehikeskifish View Post
    My Favorite Graph - customized for the northeast.

    Sample from today:



    Tim
    My problem is that looking at confirmed cases is directly correlated to how many tests are being deployed and actually used. For an example, Coos county was given one of the much hyped Abott devices and then given supplies to do 80 tests and guidelines to only test the sickest. The claim is they now have more supplies. Quest has announced direct testing for around $120, there is doctor in the loop but its fairly easy to pick a few symptoms and they will take your credit card. There will be a spike in new confirmed cases as testing become more readily available. I think NH is using a 3 day rolling average of new admissions to healthcare as the primary tool for reopening. NH is deploying testing in high risk populations and they pretty well have established that most of those faculties are in community transmission already.

  8. #158
    Moderator bikehikeskifish's Avatar
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    Sure - the graph is only as good as the data, and the data is only as good as the reports, and the reports are only as good as the tests and people reporting them . . .

    What else do we have that is better? Even with faulty data, I do like this graph, as it allows me to zoom in on the Northeast rather easily. Either VT is doing something more correct than average or they aren't testing/reporting.

    I am left wondering why nobody is presenting a stacked area graph (Note: I have looked, but not found this, let me know if you know of one please!) which includes

    1. deaths
    2. severe cases
    3. mild cases
    4. recovered cases

    All we see is the steady climb. The recovered number is missing. At least stacked area shows you visually the state of total cases over time.

    Tim
    Bike, Hike, Ski, Sleep. Eat, Fish, Repeat.

  9. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peppersass View Post
    Just received the email that all AMC huts are closed this "the remainder of 2020." I have the option to do Pinkham or Highland, get a refund or a credit, or book for 2021.
    When you think about it, maintaining any type of social distance in a congested AMC hut is a huge challenge.

  10. #160
    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peaks View Post
    When you think about it, maintaining any type of social distance in a congested AMC hut is a huge challenge.
    Family style dining establishments or confined areas. Ballparks, the USS Massachusetts, etc. Will ADK follow suit at JBL? It will look funny seeing a BWW commercial with people eating wings, drinking beer, watching football and the bar, only 25% full. College Football crowds, tailgating....

    It may be years before we get an idea how many were asymptomatic as they won't be tested unless required to have a blood test. Their temperature will be normal so until their co-workers get sick, they will just assume the asymptomatic are just not infected.
    Have fun & be safe
    Mike P.

  11. #161
    Senior Member maineguy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bikehikeskifish View Post
    Sure - the graph is only as good as the data, and the data is only as good as the reports, and the reports are only as good as the tests and people reporting them . . .

    What else do we have that is better? Even with faulty data, I do like this graph, as it allows me to zoom in on the Northeast rather easily. Either VT is doing something more correct than average or they aren't testing/reporting.

    I am left wondering why nobody is presenting a stacked area graph (Note: I have looked, but not found this, let me know if you know of one please!) which includes

    1. deaths
    2. severe cases
    3. mild cases
    4. recovered cases

    All we see is the steady climb. The recovered number is missing. At least stacked area shows you visually the state of total cases over time.


    Tim
    Agreed. It is almost impossible to tell how many have recovered when we don't know how many have been exposed and either didn't even realize it or had mild symptoms. A test in NYC showed that 20% of those tested had been exposed.

  12. #162
    Senior Member richard's Avatar
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    But if we had universal daily testing, and a vaccine, today, mark my words: there would be some new obstacle put forward to try to prevent a return to "normalcy." Of course there is always more work that should be done, but I think the better analogy is the old expression "moving the goalposts." Exactly. That’s what I think.

  13. #163
    Senior Member Peppersass's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peaks View Post
    When you think about it, maintaining any type of social distance in a congested AMC hut is a huge challenge.
    My thoughts exactly. The only way the huts could be opened IMO would be if they could successfully book one family per room. Might work at Lonesome Lake, but huts like Lakes, Zealand - seems to me not profitable with that kind of model. And that doesn't address the staff quarters. JBL - pretty sure it will need to be the same thing but that also opens the question of Adirondack Loj, Shapleigh Bunkhouse, the larger bunkrooms at HiC and PNC - their staff quarters, meals - btw they are anticipating opening July 1. Extend that to B and Bs. We are thinking of a cottage on the lake with a bunch of day hikes.
    Peppersass - NEHH, NHW-13/48, NE111-91/115, State HPs-32/50

  14. #164
    Senior Member richard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCD View Post
    Encouragingly, a couple of companies now say they have a good chance of having a vaccine ready by the fall of 2020. And development of widespread testing is proceeding rapidly, as well. In fact, recent information suggests that testing capacity is there, but underutilized for several reasons.

    But if we had universal daily testing, and a vaccine, today, mark my words: there would be some new obstacle put forward to try to prevent a return to "normalcy." Of course there is always more work that should be done, but I think the better analogy is the old expression "moving the goalposts."
    I agree with this analogy ! Makes a lot of sense to me.

  15. #165
    Senior Member TCD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJsName View Post
    Are you suggesting that there are people who don't want to return to the previous status quo, amd that they are somehow undermining the effort to do so - and aren't sincere in their desire to save lives? I highly doubt that's what you meant, so please clarify.
    Yes. That's exactly what I am saying. Almost all people in this country are well intentioned. But there are certainly some, mostly in the government and corporate "halls of power" who would happily trade American lives for more power. You only have to watch the news to know this. Thankfully in the USA, that's an extremely small number of people. In some other countries, it's much more obvious. It's naive to ignore this.

    Quote Originally Posted by bikehikeskifish View Post
    Sure - the graph is only as good as the data, and the data is only as good as the reports, and the reports are only as good as the tests and people reporting them . . .

    What else do we have that is better? Even with faulty data, I do like this graph, as it allows me to zoom in on the Northeast rather easily. Either VT is doing something more correct than average or they aren't testing/reporting.

    I am left wondering why nobody is presenting a stacked area graph (Note: I have looked, but not found this, let me know if you know of one please!) which includes

    1. deaths
    2. severe cases
    3. mild cases
    4. recovered cases

    All we see is the steady climb. The recovered number is missing. At least stacked area shows you visually the state of total cases over time.

    Tim
    Useful graph. Thanks. But I do not wonder why all we see is a steady climb; see discussion above.

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