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Thread: Want to travel to a NH destination? Not Yet.

  1. #16
    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCD View Post
    "Now, people can speculate. People can guess. I think next week, I think two weeks, I think a month," Cuomo told reporters on Memorial Day. "I'm out of that business because we all failed at that business. Right? All the early national experts. Here's my projection model. Here's my projection model. They were all wrong. They were all wrong."
    Quote Originally Posted by TCD View Post
    We will find out in a month or two what the results are from various policies around the country. And then we will be smarter, and have a better idea what to do next.
    Models being 'wrong' isn't inherently a bad thing. They can be wrong because they were built poorly (which can be bad), or because people responded and changed the outcome (which is the goal). It's unclear who 'all the experts' and what 'all the models' are that the gov is referring to, but crapping on a model for not perfectly predicting the future is easy to do when you're in the future. A relatable example is when the weather forecast is wrong - some people will complain regardless of how difficult a forecast might be to make. I think people still put way to much stock in 7-10 day forecasts because they don't appreciate uncertainty. They want to know that it's going to be 72 degrees, not that there is a 95% chance that it will be between 64 and 80. https://xkcd.com/2311/

    I think making accurate predictions about the pandemic is similarly challenging when trying to calculate the impact of policy, mixed with human behavior, and the biology of the virus itself. It seems as though some original forecasts were done 'top-down', looking the US as a whole, which is impractical for state and local leaders. Slicing out a top-down forecast is tricky to do because it requires making assumptions to allocate the pieces of the whole data-set. Doing this with limited real world data makes it even harder.

    To do a 'bottom up' forecast requires a ton of data - ZIP code/town level data - that probably wasn't readily available (if it even existed). Once you have some of that data, you then need to do analysis to see what attributes are better predictors of the real-world data coming in (which obviously requires time for real-world data to accrue). With that, you tweak the model so that is accurately predicts what happened, and hopefully can help predict what will happen at a rate significantly better than chance. Even with ll of that work, there is still a risk that something unprecedented will happen. For example, financial forecasts for this year were way off because they didn't account for the pandemic. Does that mean we abandon them? No. We adjust them and move on.

    Admitting when you're wrong is important to the process of learning and improving for next time. I'm wrong a lot - it's an essential part of my job to see it and fix it, and be better next time. While I'm worried about the gov swearing off data analytics as a whole, I hope that as the models are being pumped with new data and insights they will become more accurate, and hopefully policy makers will still use them as a tool to help decide what's coming. While we may live our lives as a series of anecdotes, businesses and governments need to make decisions using accurate, comprehensive, and well-comprehended data sets.
    Last edited by TJsName; 05-26-2020 at 01:01 AM. Reason: Added xkcd comic :)
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  2. #17
    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sierra View Post
    How can a hiker even ask this question, lol. I was off for 7 days and hiked most of them in the Whites as I have been doing for sometime now. I will not use public restrooms or porta potties. At first my dog was quite perplexed at the new routine, I got a head tilt when digging my cat hole, then I got another when I used it. Now he takes it in stride as if we were at home where he sits at my feet when I go anyway. They don't call Aussies Velcro dogs for nothing.
    We have a dog that does that when we pee. She thinks it's a fun adventure to go off trail!
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  3. #18
    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TEO View Post
    In two to six weeks we will see a significant surge in cases and deaths. We haven't suddenly become immune, just because we've been socially distancing for several months. States such as Vermont have done remarkably well, but the sobering corollary is that the vast majority of the state's population remains vulnerable. Short of a vaccine or herd immunity, the only safe way to reopen is with massive testing—eventually more than 20 million people per day—and hiring more than 100,000 people nationwide to do contact tracing. If you are serious about wanting to reopen, you should read at least the Executive Introduction and the Summary and Conclusion to the Roadmap to Resilience: Massive Scale Testing, Tracing, and Supported Isolation (TTSI) as the Path to Pandemic Resilience for a Free Society. This is a serious paper that lays out a way to fully reopen the economy by August. But, as they state in the introduction, "What we need to do is much bigger than most people realize."

    That said, there's no reason why people can't travel across state boundaries to hike, paddle, etc., and remain safe and socially distant. Bring your own food and beverages, find appropriate alternatives to using public restrooms, pay at the pump if you need to gas up, avoid popular destinations, have a backup planned in the event that your destination is crowded, give people plenty of space when you encounter them, and wear a mask when appropriate. If you can't do those things, then yes, stay home.
    "Between now and August, we should phase in economic mobilization in sync with growth in our capacity to provide speedy, sustainable testing, tracing and warning, and supported isolation and quarantine programs
    or mobilized sectors of the workforce, or TTSI. We do not propose a modest level of TTSI intended to supplement collective quarantine as a tool of disease control. Rather we recommend a level of TTSI ambitious
    enough to replace collective quarantine as a tool of disease control. TTSI should replace stay-at-home."

    I suspect we'll see a range of implementations of this, along with a range of effectiveness of those implementations. Should be interesting.
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  4. #19
    Senior Member Raven's Avatar
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    "A scientist, police chief, and politician all sit down at a table."

    Anyone here ever see Jaws? Recall how the beaches were all deemed safe by the summer season opening weekend? The most dangerous animal in that movie was not the shark.

    We all make our own decisions. Please make yours with kindness, compassion, and intelligence. Regardless of what talking mouths on TV, FB, Internet, etc are saying, take some time to think for yourself while considering your impact on others. You know, like usual, but under different circumstances.

    Be kind. Be compassionate. Make decisions that keep others safe while you recreate. Listen to a bit more science, a bit less angry old man.

    My 3 cents. I'm generous.
    Humankind has not woven the web of life.
    We are but one thread within it.
    Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.
    All things are bound together.
    All things connect.
    ~ Chief Seattle, 1854 ~

  5. #20
    Senior Member hikerbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TEO View Post
    In two to six weeks we will see a significant surge in cases and deaths. We haven't suddenly become immune, just because we've been socially distancing for several months.
    Well, we'll see. It's true we haven't suddenly become immune, but we have become considerably better at understanding likely routes of transmission, and while it's demonstrably true that some folks completely ignore social distancing guidelines, a significant portion of the population is quite conscientious. If this virus works like others (and there's no good reason it wouldn't), then the rate of spread must decrease proportionately with population-level (i.e. average) adherence to social distancing guidelines. It can't not behave that way, as far as anyone knows. We're much better at this than we were in February-March. Despite dire predictions to the contrary, FL has not seen a spike in COVID-19 cases over the past couple of weeks, even though they opened beaches and some businesses at the beginning of the month. Could still happen, but I wouldn't make such a prediction at this point.
    Quote Originally Posted by TEO
    Short of a vaccine or herd immunity, the only safe way to reopen is with massive testing—eventually more than 20 million people per day—and hiring more than 100,000 people nationwide to do contact tracing. If you are serious about wanting to reopen, you should read at least the Executive Introduction and the Summary and Conclusion to the Roadmap to Resilience: Massive Scale Testing, Tracing, and Supported Isolation (TTSI) as the Path to Pandemic Resilience for a Free Society. This is a serious paper that lays out a way to fully reopen the economy by August. But, as they state in the introduction, "What we need to do is much bigger than most people realize."
    I only read the Executive Summary and Intro, but what I read seems like solid science-based policy. I wish I had confidence that massive scale TTSI would come to fruition on the desired timescale. Such an approach requires massive coordination and focus over several months from parties with disparate interests. Our country is not particularly well-suited to such things. Not a complaint, just an observation. So I think we better have some alternate strategies.

    There was an article in NPR a couple of days ago that gave subjective risk levels to a variety of summer activities, and camping is considered 'low risk,' with the caveats you'd expect (details of bathroom practices, for example). We know a lot more now than we did even a month ago. Based on the best current science, a back country camping trip to a low use area would seem to be exceptionally low risk. I understand where Gov. Sununu is coming from in his 'Stay local' advice, particularly as it applies to his neighbors to the south, where there's a much higher infection rate. But at some point a person (me) will make his own choices within the letter and spirit of the law.
    Sure. Why not.

  6. #21
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    The whole situation is interesting from both a social and political perspective. I know a lot of folks on both sides of the political spectrum who are struggling with how much trust to put in govt officials (again, regardless of political affiliation). I'm not choosing sides as between those who think absolute govt control and a complete shutdown of the economy is the right approach vs. those who think the govt is unconstitutionally inhibiting the freedom of the people to make their own choices and to provide economically for their families. But it is encouraging to see people applying greater scrutiny to how our leadership across all levels of govt are handling a situation for which there isn't much modern precedent.

  7. #22
    Senior Member CaptCaper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Rankin View Post
    That DEPENDS on what you need to use the restroom for!

    Or, if circumstances permit, you can go into the woods and do your business there as well.

    I have to go to Cape Cod on business alot. Was just there for 3 days this week. Hard to find a place to do one's business. Find a off the beat quiet dirt road to stop? no way. Traffic in and out. Impossible to find a quiet place there. So I pollute the side parking lot's, streets and other fine spots inbetween my crew cab doors or behind empty or closed buildings. So much for keeping things clean in Mass. At least when they come up here it is so easy to find a spot to do it.

    No easy social distancing there like here. Busy as heck every where.

  8. #23
    Senior Member CaptCaper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peakbagger View Post
    That is strange, I was on Lincoln Lafayette loop yesterday and the vast majority of folks were keeping separated. Sure there were some smaller groups but not knowing their living situation they could just be room mates. I guess it comes down to if you want to see the worst side of things, you can find them on the internet.
    I believe this news report vs anything from a Facebook feed. Pictures are not good at showing the real social safe practive going on out there.

  9. #24
    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptCaper View Post
    I have to go to Cape Cod on business alot. Was just there for 3 days this week. Hard to find a place to do one's business. Find a off the beat quiet dirt road to stop? no way. Traffic in and out. Impossible to find a quiet place there. So I pollute the side parking lot's, streets and other fine spots inbetween my crew cab doors or behind empty or closed buildings. So much for keeping things clean in Mass. At least when they come up here it is so easy to find a spot to do it.

    No easy social distancing there like here. Busy as heck every where.
    Welcome to America.... In Europe, people are far less modest, side of the highway, no running into the woods no deserted dirt roads, If they have a four door, they get two side walls, if not, that's life, biology happens. (I'm not there yet either)
    Have fun & be safe
    Mike P.

  10. #25
    Senior Member CaptCaper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike P. View Post
    Welcome to America.... In Europe, people are far less modest, side of the highway, no running into the woods no deserted dirt roads, If they have a four door, they get two side walls, if not, that's life, biology happens. (I'm not there yet either)
    I don't care about doing it in public just getting arrested maybe. Of course I can't imagine they would now during this virus. I heard about Europe many years ago from a friend. No wonder they want to come to USA. I myself would never go there. Was in Mexico once and never never going back. Too many places I've been digging up and going to across the USA for many years. I'll never see them all either. Not enough time left.

  11. #26
    Senior Member TEO's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TEO View Post
    That said, there's no reason why people can't travel across state boundaries to hike, paddle, etc., and remain safe and socially distant. Bring your own food and beverages, find appropriate alternatives to using public restrooms, pay at the pump if you need to gas up, avoid popular destinations, have a backup planned in the event that your destination is crowded, give people plenty of space when you encounter them, and wear a mask when appropriate. If you can't do those things, then yes, stay home.
    I have now made three day trips to northern New Hampshire from the Greater Boston area, driving 2.5–3.5 hours, one-way, each time, and completing four hikes. Other than stopping at the trailheads, I've made three pitstops to empty my bladder, using Forest Service roads and empty trailheads along the way. Before each trip I make sure that my gas tank is full. I bring along an extra sandwich, extra GORP, and a thermos of tea with Vermont Maple Syrup, so that food pit stops are unnecessary. Fortunately, I am not working on popular lists, so my hikes have been to less frequently climbed mountains.

    While I think that states are being hasty with their re-opening plans given the lack of testing and contact tracing, I continue to think that traveling across state borders to sensibly recreate in the outdoors is a healthy, low-risk activity, provided that it is done with some planning and the flexibility to change your itinerary if trailheads are relatively full.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by TEO View Post
    I continue to think that traveling across state borders to sensibly recreate in the outdoors is a healthy, low-risk activity, provided that it is done with some planning and the flexibility to change your itinerary if trailheads are relatively full.

    I've done one 3-day trip up from the North Shore. I did a bushwhack with a stay at a dispersed site on Gale River Loop Rd and then an overnight to the Stillwater area. The Gale River lot was empty when arriving Friday afternoon and the Signal Ridge lot had a couple cars in it upon arrival Saturday morning. When I came out from Stillwater Sunday afternoon, the Signal Ridge lot was overflowing with people parked on the road. I enjoyed a beverage after the hike and observed many groups come out of the woods having just met on trail and head their separate ways in cars with plates from different areas. The beverage shortly caught up to me and I attempted to make a pit stop at the Piper TH to relieve myself. That lot was full and the road leading to the lot was lined with cars blocking the road, forcing people to drive in someone's hedges. The property owner was not pleased. People don't seem to be making the trip up with alternate itineraries or they don't think a full lot means anything. I think the trailhead stewards are going to be missed this year.

  13. #28
    Senior Member B the Hiker's Avatar
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    To all those who have stayed out of New Hampshire, like the governor asked, even though they easily could have rationalized some argument as to why they should go up, I say "Thank You!"

  14. #29
    Moderator bikehikeskifish's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TEO View Post
    ... with Vermont Maple Syrup...
    Dude,

    Very lucky you didn't get stopped in NH with that.



    Tim
    Bike, Hike, Ski, Sleep. Eat, Fish, Repeat.

  15. #30
    Senior Member TEO's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bikehikeskifish View Post
    Dude,

    Very lucky you didn't get stopped in NH with that.



    Tim
    I know, the police would likely have confiscated it to use for themselves. (I had an employer who would visit France a couple of times a year and always bring back a healthy amount of fois gras, and also happened to be a member of an airlines million mile club. One time security at De Gaulle confiscated it, despite all the efforts of the airline he flew on. I suggested that the head of De Gaulle's police probably was hosting a dinner party in the near future.)

    (For your own pride and that of your state's, don't challenge the supremacy of Vermont Maple Syrup. An Ontario resident in my business did, so we had a large-scale, blind, taste-test showdown at our most recent trade conference. Vermont soundly trounced Canada, eh? )

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