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Thread: Micromorts - A way to Assess Your Risk

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    Senior Member ChrisB's Avatar
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    Micromorts - A way to Assess Your Risk

    This article describes a way to determine risk in a fairly objective manner. It is based on the micromort, the one-in-a-million chance most of us face from dying every day.

    In this article the micromort is used to evaluate Covid risk. But it can be used to assess skydiving, climbing and other activities we engage in.

    What is your risk profile and how does it compare with others? Let us know!
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    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisB View Post
    This article describes a way to determine risk in a fairly objective manner. It is based on the micromort, the one-in-a-million chance most of us face from dying every day.

    In this article the micromort is used to evaluate Covid risk. But it can be used to assess skydiving, climbing and other activities we engage in.

    What is your risk profile and how does it compare with others? Let us know!
    Is there a link that doesn't require me creating a NYT log in?
    Have fun & be safe
    Mike P.

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    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Interesting. I think that most people don't behave in ways that mitigate risk; they try to mitigate anxiety. The issue here is that influence of risk on anxiety is seldom proportional to its probability. Anxiety is complex, but people tend to have less anxiety when they think they are in control of a situation (like driving a motor cycle) vs when they lack control (like when flying as a passenger). In an ideal world, our anxiety would always be proportional to the risk, but alas, it's not in our biology. This gives the robots a big advantage.
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    Senior Member ChrisB's Avatar
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    I see it without log in. The NYT has made Covid-related coverage available to all, incl non-subscribers.
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    Senior Member maineguy's Avatar
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    You either have to be a subscriber or "create an account online", presumably free, which will enable you to read virus articles for free,
    Last edited by maineguy; 05-27-2020 at 09:37 AM.

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    Senior Member TomK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisB View Post
    What is your risk profile and how does it compare with others? Let us know!
    Apparantly, I have no hope...


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    TomK
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    I want my hills, the trail that scorns the hollow/Up, up the ragged shale where few will follow.

    High on my hills of dream, dear hills that know me/And then how fair will seem the lands below me
    How pure at vesper time, the far bells chiming/God, give me strength to climb, and hills for climbing. "Hills" - Arthur Guiterman

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    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by maineguy View Post
    You either have to be a subscriber or "create an account online", presumably free, which will enable you to read virus articles for free,
    That's more than I want to do, create a touch point so I can be added to a list....
    Have fun & be safe
    Mike P.

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    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike P. View Post
    That's more than I want to do, create a touch point so I can be added to a list....
    You should probably have a dummy email address. Mine is TJsTrashCan@gmail.com and I looooove handing it out.
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    Moderator bikehikeskifish's Avatar
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    https://10minutemail.com/ is another handy trick

    Tim
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    Senior Member ChrisB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike P. View Post
    That's more than I want to do, create a touch point so I can be added to a list....
    Sorry for the link hassle. it "just works" for me (And I erase all Firefox history each time I quit Firefox. So who knows why?)

    I any case, here is the interesting excerpt from the piece:

    Now, if you’re infected with the virus, your odds of dying jump dramatically. Estimates of the fatality rate vary as doctors continue to learn more about this virus and how to care for people sickened by it, but let’s assume it is 1 percent for sake of this discussion. That translates into 10,000 micromorts. That risk is comparable to your chances of dying on a climb in the Himalayas if you go above 26,000 feet, where the tallest peaks, such as Everest and K2, stand (using climbing data taken between 1990 and 2006).

    But that risk estimate is for the entire population, with an average age of 38. If you happen to be older, the fatality rate can be as much as 10 times higher, which is just slightly less than flying four Royal Air Force bombing missions over Germany during World War II.


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    Senior Member TCD's Avatar
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    Well based on the latest CDC data, that "death rate" fear number from the fear-mongering NYTimes is simply wrong:

    https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cd...ate-below-0-3/

    Now if you are over 80 (and I know a few of us here are) then the risk is much higher. But for the the bulk of the population, the death rate is approximately 0.3% (similar to the seasonal flu).

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    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCD View Post
    Well based on the latest CDC data, that "death rate" fear number from the fear-mongering NYTimes is simply wrong:

    https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cd...ate-below-0-3/

    Now if you are over 80 (and I know a few of us here are) then the risk is much higher. But for the the bulk of the population, the death rate is approximately 0.3% (similar to the seasonal flu).
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

    Death rate isn't the only statistic that matters here. This is much more contagious resulting in a higher level of mortality. These are also the rates when health systems that are generally not overwhelmed.

    I hope this turns out to be more benign than originally anticipated. I hope everything can reopen and that the economy resets quickly. But I think we need more information and more resources so we get a sense of what works and what doesn't.
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    Senior Member DayTrip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCD View Post
    Well based on the latest CDC data, that "death rate" fear number from the fear-mongering NYTimes is simply wrong:

    https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cd...ate-below-0-3/

    Now if you are over 80 (and I know a few of us here are) then the risk is much higher. But for the the bulk of the population, the death rate is approximately 0.3% (similar to the seasonal flu).
    The article says that 0.3% is the "best case" estimate, not their official estimate. If the death rate is only 0.3% doesn't that imply about 33.333 million people have contracted the virus? Are the case numbers anywhere near that right now? The CDC certainly knows far more on the subject than I do but that doesn't sound right to me. I know we haven't tested nearly as much as we could or should have but still. NYC has to be way, way worse than that and the numbers are being offset by rural areas that have not been exposed to it yet. Most of the "experts" I have seen discussing this on TV have thought the death rate to be around 1%. (the link in the article posted actually goes to a CNN article that states that same number under "Experts Push Back" indicating there are 5 scenarios - i.e. I don't think they really have a clue yet).

    To quote Mark Twain "There are lies, damn lies and statistics"....
    Last edited by DayTrip; 05-28-2020 at 08:45 AM.
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    Senior Member ChrisB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCD View Post
    Well based on the latest CDC data, that "death rate" fear number from the fear-mongering NYTimes is simply wrong:

    https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cd...ate-below-0-3/
    I was more intrigued with the methodology suggested for interpreting risk across activities (climbing, sky diving, etc.) rather than Covid-specific veracity.

    And as far as that fear mongering NYT goes, I suggest your link to a Libertarian web site implies a bit of bias itself

    Stay well!
    Last edited by ChrisB; 05-28-2020 at 01:22 PM.
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    Senior Member TomK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisB View Post
    I suggest your link to a Libertarian web site implies a bit of bias itself
    Since you bring it up, actually, being Libertarian implies reason and objectivity, the opposite of bias...

    TomK
    Never loved your plains, your gentle valleys/Your drowsy country lanes and pleached alleys.
    I want my hills, the trail that scorns the hollow/Up, up the ragged shale where few will follow.

    High on my hills of dream, dear hills that know me/And then how fair will seem the lands below me
    How pure at vesper time, the far bells chiming/God, give me strength to climb, and hills for climbing. "Hills" - Arthur Guiterman

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