Batten down the hatches, the weather hype is at its max

I guess Covid is getting old to draw in eyeballs on the media so weather hype on the local news is cranked up. I have even seen "Bomb Cyclone" (must be those Ruskies) getting dusted off. Winter sports are just sputtering up north due to lack of snow cover and the ski areas are getting pounded for lack of terrain reportedly due to lack of snowmakers due to the employment crunch. Despite the lack of snow depth and inability to groom trails, snowmobile rentals are ongoing after some snow last week and the results were lots of crashes last weekend, many somewhat related to lack of snow depth, as when trails are groomed with deeper snow, the side of the trail can act like bumper cushions to keep inexperienced riders on the trail.

If the hype cycle continues, the hype will go hard core until Friday morning when the models finally agree, by then folks will have made their non refundable reservations and plans to head north. Berlin is running at half normal snow depth this winte,r even a big storm will not make up the deficit. If the summits do get a dump I expect the avalanche danger will be high as the layer underneath is pretty solid. At least its week or two early for President's day weeks.

peakbagger said:

I guess Covid is getting old to draw in eyeballs on the media so weather hype on the local news is cranked up. I have even seen "Bomb Cyclone" (must be those Ruskies) getting dusted off. Winter sports are just sputtering up north due to lack of snow cover and the ski areas are getting pounded for lack of terrain reportedly due to lack of snowmakers due to the employment crunch. Despite the lack of snow depth and inability to groom trails, snowmobile rentals are ongoing after some snow last week and the results were lots of crashes last weekend, many somewhat related to lack of snow depth, as when trails are groomed with deeper snow, the side of the trail can act like bumper cushions to keep inexperienced riders on the trail....

Click to expand...

Some of us just need consistent cold to be happy in our pursuits



Stonehouse Pond in Barrington NH!

The running joke at our house which was repeated after watching the local forecast this morning, "I guess we'll get one & a half to three inches." Which has been the results from quite a few of the last predicted winners here. And that is what regularly falls here mostly when not even forecast for more than passing showers. There are actually pretty ideal snow conditions in our locality for low impact snow sports, that has added up to a pretty durable base with nice fluff on top. Highly variable though as a friend from the west hills of Littleton had a dusting Monday morning where we had over 2 inches.

I wonder sometimes if I should be careful what I wish for; as I was peering out from my cellar door the other day, and wondered just how happy I would be if there was over 4 feet of snow on the ground? And I had been looking forward to a trip to Massachusetts this weekend.

Bah. I had made plans for another attempt at an Owl's Head overnight this weekend but the weather seems destined to thwart me this season.

I think if one were to dig through the climate records they will find that the northern whites traditionally got more snow from west to east storms earlier int he winter than Northeasters which generally are coastal. I remember several winters where I would go through stretches of Alberta Clippers for one to two weeks that really added up. Northeasters usually hit the southern slopes while the whites act as a terrain wall to put Northern NH on the fringes of storms. With a warmer Gulf of Maine temperature storms coastal storms are traveling farther north but they tend to be wet events. There does seem to be shift in snow depths to Western Maine (Andover Rumford area) from the northern whites as that area does not have terrain wall to hide behind.

Of course, the Gulf Stream circulation is reportedly at a record low and some predictions indicate it may stop, that is going to change all the weather patterns in the Atlantic Basin big time. No doubt us old folks will see some aspects of it but kids are going to get to see the results of being guinea pigs to the global climate experiment.

Winter has been been really good so far. Multiple activities have been able to happen. I guess some see the glass half full and others half empty. I have been able to Winter Hike, Ice Climb, Alpine and Nordic ski so far. We have also had some really nice light for Photography. Sunsets have been epic! Have a couple of bigger trips planned and looking forward to enjoying the rest of Winter. It is only the end of January. Plenty of more fun to come.

skiguy said:

It is only the end of January. Plenty of more fun to come.

Click to expand...

Indeed. Mid-Feb to Apr seems to be "Winter" now for the Northeast. Right around the time I start thinking Winter is a no-show and start thinking about Spring all the bomb cyclones begin to stage and unleash a deluge of shoveling and snow throwing on me. We're close....

From what I saw today, SE CT, RI and the Cape could get the bulk of the storm and wind. Where will Cantore be Friday & Saturday? So far, the Mid-Atlantic and even a bit south have been getting more than normal. If I was hiking this weekend, it's still too early to change plans. (This weekend the local BSA Council has their winter Klondike, it we do get a significant snow event, will they postpone it?) Addendum, they did postpone it.

Latest update is it will ramp up more to the east. VT and the ADK may not get any. They are just saying we will get "plowable snow". OTOH, I've been on a day-hike to Waumbek in the past when flurries were called for and I had two or three inches on my car. In CT, that's a storm.

This winter has been fantastic hiking for me and my dog. This storm looks like it might veer east and I hope it does. Lean and mean is the conditions we like. My observation so far is not as many people are out.

On Sunday, Waterville Valley was predicted to get 14"
On Monday, it was 11"
On Tuesday, it was 9"
This AM it was 5"
Right now it is 2.5"

At this rate, someone is going to come and take what little snow is there for XC skiing away!

Tim

bikehikeskifish said:

On Sunday, Waterville Valley was predicted to get 14"
On Monday, it was 11"
On Tuesday, it was 9"
This AM it was 5"
Right now it is 2.5"

At this rate, someone is going to come and take what little snow is there for XC skiing away!

Tim

Click to expand...

Does Waterville have an app for that? It’s always been lean there for XC. Jackson, Great Glen, and Bretton Woods is always proved better in the equation for me in the last 4 decades.

Waterville is closest. Bretton is next closest. The rest are not really great day trips from the south. Waterville has usually had the best grooming. I’ve been skiing there for 25 years now and this might be the second or third leanest year I can recall.

I’ve seen pictures and read reports and Bretton and Jackson aren’t doing all that much better from the sounds of it. Base depth right now is about 3-6" vs 18-24" last year around now.

Tim

XC skiing...

Any discussion of XC skiing in The Whites ought to include The Franconia Inn, in my humble (?) opinion...

...and I have to give my hometown a plug: the Woodstock (VT) Nordic Center is about he same distance from Boston as Waterville and has two trail networks and terrific conditions in spite of the stingy winter.

skiguy said:

We have also had some really nice light for Photography.

Click to expand...

I couldn't believe how beautiful it was on Monday. Absolute classic clear and cold, with big cold snowflakes fluffing out of trees and catching the bright sunlight.

Andrew said:

I couldn't believe how beautiful it was on Monday. Absolute classic clear and cold, with big cold snowflakes fluffing out of trees and catching the bright sunlight.

Click to expand...

The Sunset Tuesday was nice driving home after XC skiing and the grocery store. Again Winter has been good and looks like it will get better. I have found over the years sometimes you do need to go looking for it but it is there. The key for me is having multiple weapons to go after it.

sierra said:

This storm looks like it might veer east and I hope it does.

Click to expand...

As do I, as current forecast shows me on the rainy side.

This is the sort of track that tends to wallop us in SE Mass. We're stocked up on beer and wood, so might as well bring 'er.

Folks have made their non refundable reservations for the weekend and timing is such so that they can drive up and drive home in reasonable conditions so now the forecasts can be refined. The OBs is predicting 8 to 14 in the "whites" with more the SE and less to the NE. I think the track means the whites gets powder. Looks like Downeast Maine is the place in Me, NH, VT.

SE CT is looking for 8-18" with the area closest to to RI border even getting more. They are calling for blizzard conditions, so it looks like a nice white snowshoe for Sunday at the local park. While out shoveling tomorrow, it looks like I get to wear all that extreme weather gear I own for hiking & when I have to consider turning around or not. Here, though I'm never more than 30 yards from shelter.

Out this morning to the Holyoke Range while it's still "lean & mean", (TY Sierra for that one) and hopefully next week, I'll be snowshoeing in MA also.

Not sure what is happening up north, but there is at least 16” of very dry light snow in southern Rhode Island. The wind was gusting above 50 mph but had settled down to 35 mph gusts. Look like a couple days of good local snow shoeing.