How do we keep folks from hiking Saturday?

I am not sure if that applies all the time. The weather hype usually goes away after the first cold stretch but then the ad revenue wins out where the mountain forecast for the weekend is kept decidedly optimistic until Thursday evening to make sure that folks have made their plans and reservations to head north, then around Friday noon the forecast starts to degrade for the weekend and the stories about how to stay warm while at the ski resort get recycled. As long as its supposed to be at least partly sunny, most folks will not change plans regardless of the wind speed unless its at the point where lifts are shut down and rarely is that decision made until early that morning in hopes that folks will show up at the slope and buy a day pass before the lifts get shut down.

One of the long term VFTT members commented once at an event that he was probably destined to burn in hell for having participated in ski industry snow depth reporting and weather forecasting

Interesting question and one I had attempted to communicate without rule or restriction at times. Park a retired ambulance at the OBP/FW trailhead partially obstructing the trailhead and idling and staffed with a volunteer pro. Might jar some into realizing the possibilities and engage conversation, but could instead cause some to think 'well if I get in trouble, the ambulance is right there.'
At the same time it's wicked cool we get periods of this to enjoy hopefully in safe circumstances. This one looks short so largely just a treat, the long ones really can wear on you and make life difficult. It's funny that for us the build-up brings almost as much excitement as an anticipated snowstorm. It's good to get out in this for those who welcome it as an important part of their lives in the cold regions and get an idea of what you can manage. It can be both a challenge and reward to try to work outside in this and have to make things work; like having to handle cold steel in your bare hands and put little 5/16" nuts and bolts together at -15 so you can get yourself the 10 miles out of the deep woods with the machine your life depends on. I once asked a hiker friend who also liked to winter hike, how he planned to function with his hands in the extreme cold with all the gadgets and gear he was showing me that he would need for survival. He had a hard time functioning with fine motor skills on a 40 degree October day and had to wear gloves.

-5 this morning ....Yay!.... While dropping my son at school this morning, I saw one of the kids hop out of the car with a cup of hot cocoa for the crossing guard. Good job kid.

peakbagger said:

I am not sure if that applies all the time. The weather hype usually goes away after the first cold stretch but then the ad revenue wins out where the mountain forecast for the weekend is kept decidedly optimistic until Thursday evening to make sure that folks have made their plans and reservations to head north, then around Friday noon the forecast starts to degrade for the weekend and the stories about how to stay warm while at the ski resort get recycled. As long as its supposed to be at least partly sunny, most folks will not change plans regardless of the wind speed unless its at the point where lifts are shut down and rarely is that decision made until early that morning in hopes that folks will show up at the slope and buy a day pass before the lifts get shut down.

One of the long term VFTT members commented once at an event that he was probably destined to burn in hell for having participated in ski industry snow depth reporting and weather forecasting

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I used to ski a lot in the 80's and 90's and don't really recall misleading forecasts. Wild exaggerations of snowfall amounts definitely but not bogus weather reports. When they said it was gonna be cold it was cold. I don't remember any switch-a-roo forecasts where I got up there and was surprised by the change but I wasn't exposed to it every day. My plans rarely got impacted by the forecast then even if it was bad though. Was just something you dealt with if you wanted to go North and play outside.

As far as now and hiking, I think bad weather gets very thoroughly telegraphed pretty much anywhere you want to look - online and on TV and radio. If anything it's the opposite now. They make slightly bad weather sound like the end of days. If you're a hiker nowadays and head North not realizing the weather could be bad there are probably a whole lot of other things you probably don't know - things like the Earth is not flat for example.

EDIT. As as I think of it now, that's probably a factor in why people go out when the forecast is so bad. Because it's always exaggerated by the news that people don't fully believe it. Kind of a boy who cried wolf thing I guess....

Higher Summits forecast for NH is saying windchills could reach -101 Friday/Saturday
NEGATIVE 101!!!!!
Man, that is a lethal temperature!
I’m definitely going to sit out until this extreme cold wave passes.

SpencerVT said:

Higher Summits forecast for NH is saying windchills could reach -101 Friday/Saturday
NEGATIVE 101!!!!!
Man, that is a lethal temperature!
I’m definitely going to sit out until this extreme cold wave passes.

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To quote The OBS: "As far as wind chill values, if we go with a milder and less gusty setup of 33F below and winds of 95 mph, summits will have values around 87F below. If we go with a colder, windy setup of 40F below and 110 mph, summits will have values around 101F below".

Always interesting when it gets this cold how less than ten degrees and only a difference of ten to 15 MPH can make a difference. Also altitude plays such a big part too. For instance the differential temperature between a place like Grey Knob and the Summit of Mt. Washington.

skiguy said:

To quote The OBS: "As far as wind chill values, if we go with a milder and less gusty setup of 33F below and winds of 95 mph, summits will have values around 87F below. If we go with a colder, windy setup of 40F below and 110 mph, summits will have values around 101F below".

Always interesting when it gets this cold how less than ten degrees and only a difference of ten to 15 MPH can make a difference. Also altitude plays such a big part too. For instance the differential temperature between a place like Grey Knob and the Summit of Mt. Washington.

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The standard dry adiabatic temperature lapse rate is 5.5 F/1000 ft (9.8 C/km). The MWO's mesonet stations along the Auto Road track lapse rates nicely, and become interesting when there are inversions. I do not think that will be any temperature inversions with this high pressure cold air mass.

And, here is a nice wind chill chart in degrees F and wind speed in mph, along with frost bite times. Some of the key changes to these wind chill charts regarding frost bite were based on human tests on the summit of Washington by MWO scientists.

https://www.weather.gov/safety/cold-wind-chill-chart

Dr. Dasypodidae said:

The standard dry adiabatic temperature lapse rate is 5.5 F/1000 ft (9.8 C/km). The MWO's mesonet stations along the Auto Road track lapse rates nicely, and become interesting when there are inversions. I do not think that will be any temperature inversions with this high pressure cold air mass.

And, here is a nice wind chill chart in degrees F and wind speed in mph, along with frost bite times. Some of the key changes to these wind chill charts regarding frost bite were based on human tests on the summit of Washington by MWO scientists.

https://www.weather.gov/safety/cold-wind-chill-chart

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Great info. Interesting stuff.

DayTrip said:

I used to ski a lot in the 80's and 90's and don't really recall misleading forecasts. Wild exaggerations of snowfall amounts definitely but not bogus weather reports. When they said it was gonna be cold it was cold. I don't remember any switch-a-roo forecasts where I got up there and was surprised by the change but I wasn't exposed to it every day. My plans rarely got impacted by the forecast then even if it was bad though. Was just something you dealt with if you wanted to go North and play outside.

As far as now and hiking, I think bad weather gets very thoroughly telegraphed pretty much anywhere you want to look - online and on TV and radio. If anything it's the opposite now. They make slightly bad weather sound like the end of days. If you're a hiker nowadays and head North not realizing the weather could be bad there are probably a whole lot of other things you probably don't know - things like the Earth is not flat for example.

EDIT. As as I think of it now, that's probably a factor in why people go out when the forecast is so bad. Because it's always exaggerated by the news that people don't fully believe it. Kind of a boy who cried wolf thing I guess....

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I concur. IMO any type of shell game that was going on with weather reports, snow depth, recent snowfall amounts and or any bate and switch regarding lift tickets because of bad weather is nonexistent. IMO the reason being…The Internet. There is a wide array of information out there and readily available. If there are anomalies they are few and far between and usually reported so quickly on the boards that it’s squelched pretty quick and does not continue even if it existed in the first place. Also in todays world with more and more skiers going to bundled season passes which gives the user the choice of skiing multiple mountains in addition to international venues the flexibility is greater for participation. Also many mountains are going to online sales only and placing a cap on the number of skiers gives the ski area and the user more flexibility. The ski areas can make a call for closure much sooner as they have already banked their sales for a given day and the user is credited and can spend there ticket at a later date. So any voodoo in the forecast or manipulation of ticket sales IMO is moot.

I am past the point in my climbing career to find enjoyment in the upcoming temps. Not only that my dog dictates my outings now and I set a benchmark of 12 degrees for his safety, don't go below that. As far as what to do with the general masses? Everyone on this board can probably guess, I'm against any restrictions against going out to hike. Some can do it safely, many cannot. I would strongly consider a ban on sending out SAR and I think they deserve a break in these conditions. I would never speak for them and I would certainly respect whatever they decided. What a lot of neophytes fail to recognize, is yes you can hike in these temps, if your good and you have the right gear (maybe) but if you get hurt, suffer a bad fall or get hit even by a small avalanche, it's game over. In my younger days, I summited Washington in temps around -40. Here's the thing, I couldn't stop moving, as soon as I did the cold crept into my boots and every little cuff or seem. I ran into a OBS staff while on the summit, he looked at me and said, please go down fast and I did. My prediction for this weekend? There is a reasonable chance, someone will freeze to death in the Whites.

Backpacker has an opinion about pay for rescue https://www.backpacker.com/stories/essays/opinion/new-hampshire-search-and-rescue-drivers-license/

peakbagger said:

We used to take the Gorham scouts out in early February usually to build snow shelters or map and compass snow shoeing. We had a couple of times where the temps were in the minus teens. Temps really didnt set the go/no go but high winds did. One on event we discovered that MSR gas stoves could freeze up in the right conditions.

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Our Council in CT has a klondike with sleds required. Most years, mother nature failed to provide snow.

sierra said:

I am past the point in my climbing career to find enjoyment in the upcoming temps. Not only that my dog dictates my outings now and I set a benchmark of 12 degrees for his safety, don't go below that. As far as what to do with the general masses? Everyone on this board can probably guess, I'm against any restrictions against going out to hike. Some can do it safely, many cannot. I would strongly consider a ban on sending out SAR and I think they deserve a break in these conditions. I would never speak for them and I would certainly respect whatever they decided. What a lot of neophytes fail to recognize, is yes you can hike in these temps, if your good and you have the right gear (maybe) but if you get hurt, suffer a bad fall or get hit even by a small avalanche, it's game over. In my younger days, I summited Washington in temps around -40. Here's the thing, I couldn't stop moving, as soon as I did the cold crept into my boots and every little cuff or seem. I ran into a OBS staff while on the summit, he looked at me and said, please go down fast and I did. My prediction for this weekend? There is a reasonable chance, someone will freeze to death in the Whites.

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Is that a Bernese Mountain Dog? If yes, you're babying him at 12 degrees you softy.

peakbagger said:

I am not advocating woods bans or supporting the two votes for the Darwin approach. Sure there are plenty of folks either skilled and equipped enough to go out in the forecast conditions and some take it as a challenge or as training for "big mountains" elsewhere on the planet. My concern is for the clueless, the people who think they are all set but have never really tried out their system and training. NH AMC winter school prepped a lot of folks over the years but my guess that school is not even a blip on the social media scene. Given the weather this winter, the urban myth of the frog in boiling water tends to apply, folks may have gotten away with a lot for the last two months but add in very low temps and high winds and they may be way over their level of equipment and competence. Gear that is perfectly warm in 20 F is just not going to cut it at -20. Frostbite prevention become frostbite management. Moisture issues with fogging of glasses becomes a major issue, over the years I have encountered many folks who are dependent on glasses who are effectively blind as they had never really run into the severe fogging conditions that occur with face masks and balaclavas. I also have seen cheap and on occasion not so cheap snowshoes failing due to low temps. If they want to go out and test their systems more power to them but they can test them on lesser hike rather than trying to check off a few more winter 4Ks.

Luckily the local news stations are hyping the cold stretch as a source of eyeballs so it should not be a surprise to anyone heading up.

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People do bring up the AMC Winter Skills Course but a month of relatively easy winter conditions and happy selfies are very seductive on FB. Someone was complaining their Merrell Moabs were failing in the last month. When did Moab's become winter boots?

Tomorrow, allegedly, there will be hikers in those silly T-Rex suits doing Pierce. I've seem then at running races, Popping out above treeline in that thing may be a re-enactment, without the comet, on what happened long ago.

peakbagger said:

Backpacker has an opinion about pay for rescue https://www.backpacker.com/stories/essays/opinion/new-hampshire-search-and-rescue-drivers-license/

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I found it interesting that the article makes no mention of the Hike Safe card.

Mike P. said:

Is that a Bernese Mountain Dog? If yes, you're babying him at 12 degrees you softy.

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Haha, no, Australian Shepard. He could most likely go colder then 12 degrees, but I am very careful with him. My last Aussie and me got caught on Eisenhower as a cold front slammed the range. He suffered minor frostbite on his pads and while it really wasn't anything I did wrong, I felt awful about it. So, I just err on the side of caution. This dog was also bred to show and while it would give me great pleasure to tell everyone how tough and strong he is, truth is, he's somewhat of a softy due to his breeding. I will say this though, he is the most loving dog you will ever meet. He was re-homed to me at 14 months old and I just refuse to put him in any situation that is dangerous or uncomfortable for him.

sierra said:

Haha, no, Australian Shepard. He could most likely go colder then 12 degrees, but I am very careful with him. My last Aussie and me got caught on Eisenhower as a cold front slammed the range. He suffered minor frostbite on his pads and while it really wasn't anything I did wrong, I felt awful about it. So, I just err on the side of caution. This dog was also bred to show and while it would give me great pleasure to tell everyone how tough and strong he is, truth is, he's somewhat of a softy due to his breeding. I will say this though, he is the most loving dog you will ever meet. He was re-homed to me at 14 months old and I just refuse to put him in any situation that is dangerous or uncomfortable for him.

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Well done and good judgement. It’s so easy I think for some to get over zealous about what their dog is truly capable of doing without driving them into the ground prematurely. Specially when it comes to an Aussie.

Add me to the Darwin list. I did see someone asking about hiking Katahdin this weekend on Facebook. That should be a fun trip.

skiguy said:

I concur. IMO any type of shell game that was going on with weather reports, snow depth, recent snowfall amounts and or any bate and switch regarding lift tickets because of bad weather is nonexistent. IMO the reason being…The Internet. There is a wide array of information out there and readily available. If there are anomalies they are few and far between and usually reported so quickly on the boards that it’s squelched pretty quick and does not continue even if it existed in the first place. Also in todays world with more and more skiers going to bundled season passes which gives the user the choice of skiing multiple mountains in addition to international venues the flexibility is greater for participation. Also many mountains are going to online sales only and placing a cap on the number of skiers gives the ski area and the user more flexibility. The ski areas can make a call for closure much sooner as they have already banked their sales for a given day and the user is credited and can spend there ticket at a later date. So any voodoo in the forecast or manipulation of ticket sales IMO is moot.

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Weather forecasts seem to be in agreement across multiple sources and readily available for viewing. Ski Areas are announcing modified operating hours and lift operations for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

skiguy said:

Weather forecasts seem to be in agreement across multiple sources and readily available for viewing. Ski Areas are announcing modified operating hours and lift operations for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

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My sister who lives in St Paul MN can’t understand what all the fuss is about. She now thinks New Englanders are all total wusses!

MWV Ice Fest starts tomorrow. There be plenty of brittle ice to knock about but who wants to stand around in a clinic when it’s blow’n 45 ???