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Thread: Winters of the Future

  1. #1
    Senior Member Puck's Avatar
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    Winters of the Future

    When winter sports equipement go on sale in March..snatch it up sounds like we will need them for future winters.

    All Hail Boreas (sp intended)

    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/new...-five-wi-1.asp
    In Summary

    Overall, Bastardi is predicting three or four of the next five winters to be colder than normal for much of the U.S., based on trends observed in La Niņas throughout history.

    He is concerned that, amid the current recession, more colder-than-normal conditions in the winters ahead will put extra financial strain on families in the form of higher heating bills.

    Bastardi is also predicting the long-term climate to turn colder over the next 20 to 30 years with global temperatures, as measured by satellite, returning to levels they were at in the late 1970s.
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  2. #2
    Senior Member TCD's Avatar
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    So much for global warming.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Paradox's Avatar
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    Sounds good to me. Although when I first read his name, I thought you were pulling my leg.
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    Senior Member Chip's Avatar
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    I saw a woman "gearing up" for a snowshoe hike at one of our town's open spaces this past weekend...with snowshoes barely bigger than her boots and over-heard another woman at church talking loud and happy about "going to get snowshoes today at Bob's"...all good, but nice to already have the gear and know how to use it. Three years ago I grabbed 4 pair of entry level Tubbs at our Church's annual "Barn Sale" for about $50 total, brand new, a family had bought and never used. I sold 3 pair on ebay, kept one pair, and used the proceeds to buy my son a guitar he had hoped to find at the Barn Sale . Keep an eye open for that "used once" gear this Spring !
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  5. #5
    Banned Kevin Rooney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCD View Post
    So much for global warming.
    Yeah, that's the only possible conclusion.

    When the Arctic freezes over again, glaciation begins to increase, and a whole host of other world-wide trends are reversed, and thousands of climate scientists concur, then maybe I'll agree with you. Until then, the pronouncements of one weatherman don't impress me.

    An increase in global temperature means air is able to carry more moisture. It's not rocket science.
    Last edited by Kevin Rooney; 02-03-2011 at 10:20 AM.

  6. #6
    Senior Member erugs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chip View Post
    Keep an eye open for that "used once" gear this Spring !
    Good point. Brian and I found a pair of snowshoes at the town dump's sharing room. They're not great, but are nice to have as something to share with someone just getting started. I, too, will be on the lookout for something nicer at yard sales.
    Ellen

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    "Through winter-time we call on spring/And through the spring on summer call/And when abounding hedges ring/Declare that winter's best of all/And after that there's nothing good/Because the spring-time has not come... William Butler Yeats

  7. #7
    Senior Member Puck's Avatar
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    A prediciton of colder winters in our hemisphere and global warming are not mutually exclusive. Bastardi is not making any claims about AGW in his article.

    I am just staying Swix, Fisher and Acme snow removal maybe the hot stock tip of the day,
    Trail adopter Dry river Cut-off.

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    Senior Member DougPaul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Puck View Post
    A prediciton of colder winters in our hemisphere and global warming are not mutually exclusive. Bastardi is not making any claims about AGW in his article.
    It is still just one man's [hopefully educated] guess. We will see what reality brings.

    Climate modeling suggests that as AGW proceeds, some places will get wetter and some drier. Some may also get colder. And, of course, there will be a lot of short-term variation.


    Kevin is correct--warmer temps increase the total amount of moisture transport which can result in more total precipitation and stronger hurricanes etc. (The energy that drives hurricanes comes from warm ocean water.)

    Doug

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    Senior Member w7xman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Rooney View Post
    Yeah, that's the only possible conclusion.

    When the Arctic freezes over again, glaciation begins to increase, and a whole host of other world-wide trends are reversed, and thousands of climate scientists concur, then maybe I'll agree with you. Until then, the pronouncements of one weatherman don't impress me.

    An increase in global temperature means air is able to carry more moisture. It's not rocket science.

    In addition, I've been doing some reading about how the increased open water around the arctic with actually increase the strength of the continental arctic highs, and produce more winters with the blocking pattern schemes that we are seeing this winter.

    Maybe.

    Again, the fact is that climate change is occurring. How it will affect YOU is a bit tougher to tell!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Puck View Post
    A prediciton of colder winters in our hemisphere and global warming are not mutually exclusive. Bastardi is not making any claims about AGW in his article.
    Funny how his winter 2010-2011 forecast back in October was not completely accurate for New England.

    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/new...forecast-1.asp

    Joe Bastardi has a B.S. meteorology degree from Penn State, which has a fine meteorology program. However, despite not having a background in climate science, also a major strength at Penn State, Bastardi is one of the world's most outspoken deniers of AGW.

    http://climateprogress.org/2011/01/1...rctic-sea-ice/

  11. #11
    Senior Member Puck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Dasypodidae View Post
    However, despite not having a background in climate science, also a major strength at Penn State, Bastardi is one of the world's most outspoken deniers of AGW.

    http://climateprogress.org/2011/01/1...rctic-sea-ice/
    Dr D thanks for the legwork. Accuweather has a section on Global Warming on thier website. Data is posted and discussed without all of the "denier-alarmist" bickering.

    I am suprised that Bastardi could hold his position of long term forecaster with only a BS in meteorology and no credentials in climatology.

    At any rate I will try to see if others concur with his predictions.
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  12. #12
    Banned Kevin Rooney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Puck View Post
    I am suprised that Bastardi could hold his position of long term forecaster with only a BS in meteorology and no credentials in climatology.
    He can be quite a showman. I haven't watched his snippets in a few years, but when I did - they were always entertaining. I can't say I ever paid too much attention to the content of them as the ones I watched tended to be long range, and those tend to be about as reliable as a cloudy crystal ball under the best of circumstances, no matter who makes the prognostications.

    He creates controversy, and controversy and alarmism in the media means $$$ to the network. It's just the way it is. No point in lamenting the obvious. The effort is better spent in becoming a more discerning viewer.

  13. #13
    Senior Member hikerfast's Avatar
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    someone once said that predicting the weather was like...well...like predicting the weather! just think..in 10,000 years we will all know what the weather was like the last 10,000 years. it makes great conversation though!
    why are there people like Frank??

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    Quote Originally Posted by forestgnome View Post
    Al Gore has a degree in.....political science. He has held his position as a long term forcaster quite well. Now, there's a real showman!
    Well played, Forestnome; even I cannot argue with you on that one.

  15. #15
    Senior Member Little Rickie's Avatar
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    As I think through this I imagine as the polls warm up a few degrees the air would expand and move toward the equator. When people think of warmer they think above freezing. At the poles warming up is still sub zero. We don't think in terms of sub zero temps rising as warming up. So when the warmer air (but still frightfully cold) expands and moves south it is pushing very very cold air toward us with more moisture.

    Doug?
    Last edited by Little Rickie; 02-10-2011 at 01:05 PM.
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