Continuing eruption of Mount Redoubt in Alaska affecting our weather?

[Jim lombard]

We've had an unusually cooler June here in the Northeast. Dryer than normal so far here in southern NH but with much less available sunlight.

Could the continuing eruptions of Mount Redoubt be playing havoc with our weather? Some of the erptions threw ash 50,000 and 65,000 feet into the atmosphere in March and April.

 

[Kevin Rooney]

That's a good question, Jim. The far west is having a cooler and wetter spring. There's some discussion that an El Nino may be forming. I'm not a meteorologist, but from what I can glean from online conversations from people who are - if it is an El Nino it's earlier than usual.

 

[sardog1]

Here's a paper by Luke Oman, Alan Robock, and Georgiy Stenchikov of Rutgers and Gavin A. Schmidt and Reto Ruedy of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, dealing with an eruption of Katmai back in 1912. (Katmai lies about 160 miles SW of Redoubt. Note that that eruption was much larger than this year's shenanigans at Redoubt -- "so far.")

"Climatic response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions"

 

[Dr. Dasypodidae]

I agree with the conclusions in the Katmai article posted by Sardog1, that is, high-latitude volcanoes do not impact climate as much as tropical volcanoes, which generally have higher SO2 aerosol contents, such as Pinatubo in 1991, El Chichon in 1982, Krakatoa in 1883, Tambora in 1815, and Toba about 71,000 to 75,000 years ago. All but the latter produced documented historical evidence for global cooling, and Toba produced a significant global cooling that lasted for about 200 years based on Greenland ice core records. The article at the link, although not in a peer-reviewed journal, is a nice summary, and includes some key peer-reviewed references. I agree with Kevin that El Nino events (and La Nina, or ENSO) are more significant than high-latitude volcanoes in forcing sub-decadal global temperature (and precipitation) changes.

http://www.wunderground.com/climate/volcanoes.asp

 

[Jim lombard]

Thanks for the responses everyone. I submitted my question also to the Observatory and here's what Ryan Knapp came back with.

Thanks for your question and your interest in the membership supported Mount Washington Observatory.

Volcanic eruptions can play a role in global weather patterns but not always. A lot of factors play into how they influence weather patterns.
Some of these factors are the materials they spew, height they reach in the atmosphere, location, dispersion of the material, and time of year just to name a few. If some or all of the factors line up just right, localized or global climates may be slightly altered.

As for Mount Redoubt's eruption, nothing I have read on climatology sites or NOAA endorsed sites has mentioned anything about this eruption. The weather pattern we are in is similar to the one we experienced last year and is nothing that out of the ordinary for New England for this time of year. As for a prediction for the rest of the summer, the observatory itself does not do official climatological predictions but from what I have read and am seeing, temperatures are slightly cooler but precipitation is either under or just slightly over what is normal for this time of year. But the season has just started so it is far too early to say anything conclusive.

Another thing to keep in mind is there is no daily way of measuring how an eruption affects a certain areas climate. It is similar to global warming in that you have to study the past to know what going on in the present.
Usually with volcanic eruptions, it takes a years worth of data to preliminarily say if any noticeable changes occurred. Then five year blocks are examined until 30 years after the fact to conclusively say whether any influence was experienced if at all. So as of now, we will just have to take a wait and see approach.

Cheers

Ryan Knapp
Senior Staff Meteorologist, KMWN

 

[IndianChris]

I recently sent an e-mail to the NWS asking about the unusual amount of rain we're getting here in the NE. Haven't received a reply yet. I don't think it's El Nino. It might be La Nina though. (?)

Someone I work with mentioned a high pressure system that has been over the Pacific for a while now and it is that that might be causing all our lows. You know...a butterfly flaps its wings in China and...

If I ever get that reply, I'll post it.

 

[Dr. Dasypodidae]

I agree with most of Ryan Knapp's answer, but not his second to last sentence: "Then five year blocks are examined until 30 years after the fact to conclusively say whether any influence was experienced if at all."

We could see within a year that Pinatubo had a cooling effect on global temperature. Ditto for many other low-latitude volcanic eruptions in historic time. The timing of Pinatubo's eruption and short-term cooling effect on global temperature (short term because the SO2 aerosols even in large low-latitude volcanic eruptions "rain out" of the atmosphere within a couple of years) was unfortunate, as three years earlier NASA climate modeler Jim Hansen spoke before U.S. Congress about the impending threat of human-induced global warming. Of course, by 1993, global temperature resumed its dramatic rise, with the warmest year being 1998, which was coincident with the peak of a "super" El Nino event.

Here is another good resource that might be of interest (see reference to Ben Franklin!).

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Glossary/VolcWeather/description_volcanoes_and_weather.html