Moonrock, I agree with your own assessment that the high elevations of the Adirondack high peaks will be past peak. But if you hike from the AMR Preserve you will optimize your opportunities for some good foliage at the lower elevations of the south slopes of UWJ and Armstrong.
edit: One additional thought. If you descend the Beaver Meadow Trail from Armstrong (trail 34 on the ADK map) and if you have time, take a short side trip on trail #30 to the Lost Lookout. It provides a nice afternoon view of Colvin, Indian Head, and the Lower Ausable Lake. It can be very nice with fall foliage. Beaver Meadow Falls is also very nice with fall foliage. The Cathedral Rocks / Bear Run (trail #29) also provides a nice afternoon view of Giant. But that is a bit of extra climbing and the views at the golf course on your way out may provide more optimal fall foliage views towards Giant. Have fun.
I agree with the general adage that a wet summer yields dull foliage, and a dry summer yields brighter fall colors. However, the weather in the 6 weeks prior to the normal peak foliage season also plays a role. It does appear that a placid September is in the forecast. So I am cautiously optimistic at present despite the very wet summer of 2009.
High winds and heavy rains in the peak foliage season may wash away the best of potentials. Placid weather at peak may also allow the leaves of a mediocre year to linger and may produce an OK season. So fall foliage is forever fickle.
In years past I tended to find that the last 2 weeks of September provided the best foliage in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks. With the warmer temperatures of recent years, the normal peak seems to have shifted into early October. But no matter what portion of the fall foliage season you pick, and if one can be flexible in hike selection; then good foliage can always be found somewhere in the Adirondacks. It might be in wind protected areas, on the lower elevations of a hike, and on southern slopes where the leaves turn later.
NYS provides weekly
fall foliage reports. They will start Wednesday Sept 9 this year. New reports are posted in the early afternoon of each Wednesday. The same reports are also available from the USA and Canada via a toll free phone number:
800/CALL-NYS (800/225-5697)
I have found these reports to be useful in prior years. But take the reports with grains of salt. One person's concept of peak might be another's pre-peak and another's post-peak.
