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Thread: Private Campgrounds can be open in NH

  1. #46
    Senior Member DayTrip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hikerbrian View Post
    What I'd love to know is, Who is getting the virus RIGHT NOW? MA still has 1500 new cases/day. Who are these people? Essential workers? Healthcare workers? Family of previously infected individuals? What is the correlation between stringency of social distancing and probability of infection?
    I can't speak for everywhere but in my area of NE CT it is still quite common to see people out in public places without masks or gloves in areas with people (such as gas stations, grocery stores, etc). Yesterday I got gas at the Cumberland Farms closest to my house and nobody had a face mask on and I only saw one person using gloves. I didn't go inside but a steady stream of people went in and out with no PPE. An EMT driver actually went briefly inside and came out with no PPE at any point. Despite all the fear and warnings I think a lot of people still think this is being blown out of proportion. Add that mind set to a densely populated area and I could see why cases are still growing.

    If I'm not mistaken MA is also doing a lot more testing than other states in New England so they may just be doing a better job of accurately capturing cases.
    “Sometimes when you’ve lost something in your life that matters, the only thing left to do is go and find it.” Renan Ozturk

  2. #47
    Moderator bikehikeskifish's Avatar
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    It will be interesting to see, once a cheap, accurate and fast test is available, how many had it and never really knew. I flew on business to Los Angeles around Valentine's Day, and my boss and I both picked up a cold of sorts from a colleague out there. Took me 3-4 weeks to kick it. It was never really bad enough to slow me down. I have been wondering now since mid March if I actually had the virus...

    Tim
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  3. #48
    Senior Member TCD's Avatar
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    Don't know if this picture will show up. This is Massachusetts COVID19 deaths as of a couple days ago. Obviously the emphasis needs to be on protecting the elderly.

    Click image for larger version. 

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  4. #49
    Senior Member sierra's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCD View Post
    Don't know if this picture will show up. This is Massachusetts COVID19 deaths as of a couple days ago. Obviously the emphasis needs to be on protecting the elderly.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Holy Cow that is an amazing graph. I really feel for the elderly in Commercial homes, basically sitting ducks.

  5. #50
    Senior Member DayTrip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJsName View Post
    Yeah, the data coming out of nursing homes/assisted living and the like is really depressing. More than half of the reported deaths in MA are related to those facilities.

    When I was young, my dad's father was suffering from Alzheimer's and we would go over visit him a couple days a week at the nursing home. I'm sure there were many families doing the same thing was their loved ones nowadays. Tragic
    The worst part is these people are not being allowed to really visit. They're not even allowed in the building. There has been more than a few heart wrenching stories on the news of people dying alone in isolation because loved ones were prevented access. Not sure how that is legally possible. It probably varies from state to state too I guess. You'd think you could sign a release of liability or something. It's hard to imagine a scenario where I'd let my wife die like that and not be there holding her hand regardless of my health status.
    “Sometimes when you’ve lost something in your life that matters, the only thing left to do is go and find it.” Renan Ozturk

  6. #51
    Senior Member TCD's Avatar
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    Yes the isolation is a bit sad, but it's the best way to protect that age group.

    Tidbit: In Florida, the state mandated that virus positive patients be kept away from nursing homes and senior centers. In NY, conversely, the state mandated that nursing homes must accept virus positive patients. You can look up the difference in deaths between the two states.

    Nursing homes could do a lot more to promote video visits, such as via Zoom. It would be really easy to do that in the nursing home environment. Sure, the families could do that, but I think it would be good for the institutions to conduct outreach, volunteer to set it up, etc.. It's not hard, but it's new for many families.

    We were originally scheduled to visit my mother-in-law in Florida, to celebrate her 90th birthday (Today! Hurray for Mom!). Obviously we canceled the trip some time ago; we are having two Zoom parties today (one with neighbors, the second one with family) and are looking forward to it.

  7. #52
    Senior Member DougPaul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJsName View Post
    If HVAC can spread it, can't the wind as well? What about having fans outside? With a 1 mph breeze, it takes under 5 seconds to travel 6'. And sure, UV light might kill it, but what about at night? We established early on in this that if places are open, a lot of people will go because if it wasn't safe - why would it be open?
    I'm sure the wind is a factor. When I am near someone outside, I position myself so the wind is blowing at a right angle to the line between us so that our exhalation plumes blow away from both of us. (In other words, avoid being downwind of anyone else.) If you can feel the air blast coming off a runner or a cyclist, you know that there are exhaled particles in the eddies...

    The 6 foot distance is not magic--the virus-containing particles do not drop dead just after traveling 5 ft 11 inches... In general, the farther you are, the safer you are.

    As others have noted, the far UV (UV-C) required to kill microorganisms damages humans too.

    Doug

  8. #53
    Senior Member DougPaul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCD View Post
    Don't know if this picture will show up. This is Massachusetts COVID19 deaths as of a couple days ago. Obviously the emphasis needs to be on protecting the elderly.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Mass COVID19 deaths.jpg 
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    These data (and a lot more) for MA can be found at https://www.mass.gov/info-details/co...onse-reporting. Click on the "COVID-19 Dashboard" for today's date. It is updated daily.

    I haven't checked, but hopefully other states are also publishing similar data. (I've been tracking the numbers for my town (from the town website), MA (from the above), all states (from covidtracking.com), the US (from the CDC), and countries around the world (from the WHO) and wrote software to plot them. (A plot of the new cases in New Zealand or Australia is sobering. They have done a **far** better job of controlling the virus than we have...)

    Doug

  9. #54
    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Same in CT, At one point they were looking at a system were they would move residents so you had Covid and Non-Covid homes. Staffing them is an issue. No one can vist for my wife's birthday, she and the kids went to her Mom's place which is on the first floor and waved from a distance at her window.

    They have a better sense of pride than a correctional facility, however, infection rates and spacing and congestion are pretty similar. (I used to joke with my daughter that was my retirement plan if she ever brought a bad boyfriend home.... ) Many unnamed features in the Whites and in ME.... Also has me thinking about Guy Waterman's last day too. (OMG, I got to get off the keyboard and go HIKING!)
    Have fun & be safe
    Mike P.

  10. #55
    Senior Member TCD's Avatar
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    Of interest regarding state-to-state variation:

    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/coro...-seth-leibsohn

    (Read this for the facts and data, even if you ignore the writers opinion on media issues.)

    HUGE mistakes were made in NY early on: Not quarantining international travelers (such as the health care worker who returned from Iran (!)); vocally encouraging the continued use of the subways, and the celebration of the lunar new year; and mandating the entry of COVID19 positive patients into nursing homes with frail elderly. This is why NY has over 40% of the nation's deaths.

    Due to the time lag for outcomes, we learn a lot about what was "good policy" and what was "bad policy" when we look back at data a couple months later.

    Now as states begin to reopen, we are entering another "experiment." Of course there are extreme voices saying that "everyone is going to die!" if we open too early; and there are extreme voices saying that "everyone is going to die!" if we open too late. But if you ignore those voices, there's room for a broad range of reasonable positions about how, and how soon, to open a state's economy. We will learn a lot about what works and what doesn't when we look back around mid-June, and compare results from Georgia, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc..

  11. #56
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    I live in New York City. My friends are dying. It happens very fast. Friends my age, older, younger, gone. Sometimes as little as five days.

    So I am practicing social distancing. I've refrained from hiking. (All the trails within 60 miles are closed anyway.) I wear a mask when shopping. I believe the scientists and doctors who are warning us.

    I don't believe this is the time to blame people for getting sick.

    The irony is, if the lockdown works people will use that as proof that COVID-19 isn't dangerous.

  12. #57
    Senior Member skiguy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Eagan View Post
    I live in New York City. My friends are dying. It happens very fast. Friends my age, older, younger, gone. Sometimes as little as five days.

    So I am practicing social distancing. I've refrained from hiking. (All the trails within 60 miles are closed anyway.) I wear a mask when shopping. I believe the scientists and doctors who are warning us.

    I don't believe this is the time to blame people for getting sick.

    The irony is, if the lockdown works people will use that as proof that COVID-19 isn't dangerous.
    Thankyou for posting this. Sorry for your loss. I also know people in your area that have died from the Virus. Many of my friends that live in your region are taking this very seriously. Godspeed.
    "I'm getting up and going to work everyday and I am stoked. That does not suck!"__Shane McConkey

  13. #58
    Moderator bikehikeskifish's Avatar
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    I know this is a politically charged subject, and civil discourse is welcome, but kindly avoid the blatant, cheap shots - they don't really add any value and they cause some members to take offense. Cheap shots include

    * Character attacks on leaders
    * Disparaging comments about the political slant of sources

    Do, however, feel free to bring up alternate policy ideas and cite alternate sources to make your (counter) point.

    Thanks,
    Tim
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  14. #59
    Senior Member hikerbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DougPaul View Post
    These data (and a lot more) for MA can be found at https://www.mass.gov/info-details/co...onse-reporting. Click on the "COVID-19 Dashboard" for today's date. It is updated daily.
    I too have been following the MA dashboard. I have to admit, I'm amazed at the performance of the US healthcare establishment, and MA in particular. In the face of an unprecedented global pandemic, at the height of the surge, MA continues to be utilizing only about 50% of max capacity with respect to hospital beds and ICU beds. Current hospitalizations have been stable below 4000 for more than a week now. I donated some masks to a doctor friend a couple of weeks ago, and she said they don't need them in Boston. The deaths are tragic, but so far they are not a result of an over-taxed healthcare system. To me, this is remarkable.

    We still don't know how this will end. Australia, Germany, and South Korea are the standouts in terms of low numbers of deaths per capita. But Just about the entire rest of the western world has fared worse than the US (so far). Of course, the US is a big country - NY state has fared worse than almost any other country in the world, as has MA, while many rural states (including NH) have fared better than any other western democracy. I suspect this is a result of multiple undetected nucleating events in NY and MA in early Feb, which were disastrous when combined with public transportation, population density, and a lack of widespread testing. But that is conjecture at this point.

    This reminds me vaguely of $5.00 gas. I recall years ago listening to analysts say that when gas hit $5/gal, the entire US would implode. Obviously that did not happen. In this case, in the face of an unprecedented global pandemic, with a unique president, with one of our greatest adversaries (China) having actively withheld critical pandemic information, and another of our adversaries possibly existing in a leadership vacuum (N. Korea), the US continues to carry on. Amidst all of this, my 401k is down 13% YTD (i.e. who cares). This, to me, also is remarkable. This is not to minimize the heartbreaking losses many have suffered. It is to spotlight the resiliency of the country as a whole. So far.

    This will be an interesting story, if/when the pieces of the puzzle are revealed. I do hope the positive trends continue and that before too long all of us can go back into the woods, beyond our own backyards.
    Sure. Why not.

  15. #60
    Senior Member DougPaul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Eagan View Post
    The irony is, if the lockdown works people will use that as proof that COVID-19 isn't dangerous.
    Or they will decide that the lockdown or other measures are no longer needed. (And if protective measures are terminated it will most likely explode again...)

    The ~2 week delay between exposure and hospitalization also makes it hard for many to connect actions and consequences. (The (unchecked) doubling time for cases of this virus is ~3 days in a naive population.)

    Fortunately we are getting better at treating it.

    Doug

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