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Thread: Private Campgrounds can be open in NH

  1. #61
    Senior Member DougPaul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJsName View Post
    If HVAC can spread it, can't the wind as well? What about having fans outside? With a 1 mph breeze, it takes under 5 seconds to travel 6'. And sure, UV light might kill it, but what about at night? We established early on in this that if places are open, a lot of people will go because if it wasn't safe - why would it be open?
    I'm sure the wind is a factor. When I am near someone outside, I position myself so the wind is blowing at a right angle to the line between us so that our exhalation plumes blow away from both of us. (In other words, avoid being downwind of anyone else.) If you can feel the air blast coming off a runner or a cyclist, you know that there are exhaled particles in the eddies...

    The 6 foot distance is not magic--the virus-containing particles do not drop dead just after traveling 5 ft 11 inches... In general, the farther you are, the safer you are.

    As others have noted, the far UV (UV-C) required to kill microorganisms damages humans too.

    Doug

  2. #62
    Senior Member DougPaul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCD View Post
    Don't know if this picture will show up. This is Massachusetts COVID19 deaths as of a couple days ago. Obviously the emphasis needs to be on protecting the elderly.

    Attachment 6389
    These data (and a lot more) for MA can be found at https://www.mass.gov/info-details/co...onse-reporting. Click on the "COVID-19 Dashboard" for today's date. It is updated daily.

    I haven't checked, but hopefully other states are also publishing similar data. (I've been tracking the numbers for my town (from the town website), MA (from the above), all states (from covidtracking.com), the US (from the CDC), and countries around the world (from the WHO) and wrote software to plot them. (A plot of the new cases in New Zealand or Australia is sobering. They have done a **far** better job of controlling the virus than we have...)

    Doug

  3. #63
    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Same in CT, At one point they were looking at a system were they would move residents so you had Covid and Non-Covid homes. Staffing them is an issue. No one can vist for my wife's birthday, she and the kids went to her Mom's place which is on the first floor and waved from a distance at her window.

    They have a better sense of pride than a correctional facility, however, infection rates and spacing and congestion are pretty similar. (I used to joke with my daughter that was my retirement plan if she ever brought a bad boyfriend home.... ) Many unnamed features in the Whites and in ME.... Also has me thinking about Guy Waterman's last day too. (OMG, I got to get off the keyboard and go HIKING!)
    Have fun & be safe
    Mike P.

  4. #64
    Senior Member TCD's Avatar
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    Of interest regarding state-to-state variation:

    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/coro...-seth-leibsohn

    (Read this for the facts and data, even if you ignore the writers opinion on media issues.)

    HUGE mistakes were made in NY early on: Not quarantining international travelers (such as the health care worker who returned from Iran (!)); vocally encouraging the continued use of the subways, and the celebration of the lunar new year; and mandating the entry of COVID19 positive patients into nursing homes with frail elderly. This is why NY has over 40% of the nation's deaths.

    Due to the time lag for outcomes, we learn a lot about what was "good policy" and what was "bad policy" when we look back at data a couple months later.

    Now as states begin to reopen, we are entering another "experiment." Of course there are extreme voices saying that "everyone is going to die!" if we open too early; and there are extreme voices saying that "everyone is going to die!" if we open too late. But if you ignore those voices, there's room for a broad range of reasonable positions about how, and how soon, to open a state's economy. We will learn a lot about what works and what doesn't when we look back around mid-June, and compare results from Georgia, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc..

  5. #65
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    I live in New York City. My friends are dying. It happens very fast. Friends my age, older, younger, gone. Sometimes as little as five days.

    So I am practicing social distancing. I've refrained from hiking. (All the trails within 60 miles are closed anyway.) I wear a mask when shopping. I believe the scientists and doctors who are warning us.

    I don't believe this is the time to blame people for getting sick.

    The irony is, if the lockdown works people will use that as proof that COVID-19 isn't dangerous.

  6. #66
    Senior Member skiguy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Eagan View Post
    I live in New York City. My friends are dying. It happens very fast. Friends my age, older, younger, gone. Sometimes as little as five days.

    So I am practicing social distancing. I've refrained from hiking. (All the trails within 60 miles are closed anyway.) I wear a mask when shopping. I believe the scientists and doctors who are warning us.

    I don't believe this is the time to blame people for getting sick.

    The irony is, if the lockdown works people will use that as proof that COVID-19 isn't dangerous.
    Thankyou for posting this. Sorry for your loss. I also know people in your area that have died from the Virus. Many of my friends that live in your region are taking this very seriously. Godspeed.
    "I'm getting up and going to work everyday and I am stoked. That does not suck!"__Shane McConkey

  7. #67
    Moderator bikehikeskifish's Avatar
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    I know this is a politically charged subject, and civil discourse is welcome, but kindly avoid the blatant, cheap shots - they don't really add any value and they cause some members to take offense. Cheap shots include

    * Character attacks on leaders
    * Disparaging comments about the political slant of sources

    Do, however, feel free to bring up alternate policy ideas and cite alternate sources to make your (counter) point.

    Thanks,
    Tim
    Bike, Hike, Ski, Sleep. Eat, Fish, Repeat.

  8. #68
    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Eagan View Post
    The irony is, if the lockdown works people will use that as proof that COVID-19 isn't dangerous.
    Reminds me of a bit from 30 Rock, where Tina Fey's character is talking about how Tracy Morgan's character lit fires to keep Frankenstein away (which as far as they know, worked).

    There are certainly people who won't appreciate the lives that were saved by social distancing. It's a shame most of the generation who helped win World War II has passed away, as I think they would provide some great perspective for their children that are currently leading this country.

    I don't think many of us would voluntarily trade experiences with them, even though many of them did get to go to the beach and go hiking a lot.
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  9. #69
    Senior Member hikerbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DougPaul View Post
    These data (and a lot more) for MA can be found at https://www.mass.gov/info-details/co...onse-reporting. Click on the "COVID-19 Dashboard" for today's date. It is updated daily.
    I too have been following the MA dashboard. I have to admit, I'm amazed at the performance of the US healthcare establishment, and MA in particular. In the face of an unprecedented global pandemic, at the height of the surge, MA continues to be utilizing only about 50% of max capacity with respect to hospital beds and ICU beds. Current hospitalizations have been stable below 4000 for more than a week now. I donated some masks to a doctor friend a couple of weeks ago, and she said they don't need them in Boston. The deaths are tragic, but so far they are not a result of an over-taxed healthcare system. To me, this is remarkable.

    We still don't know how this will end. Australia, Germany, and South Korea are the standouts in terms of low numbers of deaths per capita. But Just about the entire rest of the western world has fared worse than the US (so far). Of course, the US is a big country - NY state has fared worse than almost any other country in the world, as has MA, while many rural states (including NH) have fared better than any other western democracy. I suspect this is a result of multiple undetected nucleating events in NY and MA in early Feb, which were disastrous when combined with public transportation, population density, and a lack of widespread testing. But that is conjecture at this point.

    This reminds me vaguely of $5.00 gas. I recall years ago listening to analysts say that when gas hit $5/gal, the entire US would implode. Obviously that did not happen. In this case, in the face of an unprecedented global pandemic, with a unique president, with one of our greatest adversaries (China) having actively withheld critical pandemic information, and another of our adversaries possibly existing in a leadership vacuum (N. Korea), the US continues to carry on. Amidst all of this, my 401k is down 13% YTD (i.e. who cares). This, to me, also is remarkable. This is not to minimize the heartbreaking losses many have suffered. It is to spotlight the resiliency of the country as a whole. So far.

    This will be an interesting story, if/when the pieces of the puzzle are revealed. I do hope the positive trends continue and that before too long all of us can go back into the woods, beyond our own backyards.
    Sure. Why not.

  10. #70
    Senior Member DougPaul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daniel Eagan View Post
    The irony is, if the lockdown works people will use that as proof that COVID-19 isn't dangerous.
    Or they will decide that the lockdown or other measures are no longer needed. (And if protective measures are terminated it will most likely explode again...)

    The ~2 week delay between exposure and hospitalization also makes it hard for many to connect actions and consequences. (The (unchecked) doubling time for cases of this virus is ~3 days in a naive population.)

    Fortunately we are getting better at treating it.

    Doug

  11. #71
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    Update Public Campgrounds and Private campgrounds can reopen in NH to NH residents only. The governor extended the stay at home order until the end of the month

    https://www.wmur.com/article/new-ham...ates/32343346#

    The WMNF had stated they would align their policies with NH policies, I wonder if and when they will be reopening/opening the WMNF campgrounds?. NH never closed trailheads so no idea when WMNF will open trailheads or campsites.

  12. #72
    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TJsName View Post
    I updated it to add a tab for MA, as well as a combined plot. The trend for MA is not a strong, but still linear. Suffolk County is quite an outlier as it's an order of magnitude more dense, but with a lower than expected confirmed infection rate given the extra density, but that could be due to limited tested.
    Updated it again with data through today: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=184634745

    Biggest change is that the trend is appearing more and more logarithmic, so I updated the charts to reflect this. I also switched the X axis (density) to log as well. This means the graph can roughly be read as: for every 1 step up in population density, expect 2 steps up in the infection rate. So, a county with 10 times the density will have 20 times the infection rate. Seems by looking at this, that urban areas will get hit hardest first, but will acquire a larger percentage with immunity as a result. The less dense areas might get hit harder once restrictions are eased. Perhaps that's a characteristic of the 'second wave'?

    As for issues with this, obviously there are some natural limits to density (even with sky scrapers allowing you to 'stack' people) and the infection rate (can't exceed 100% without re-infections). If we look at a super dense county, such as Kings County, New York (density ~ 37,000 people/sq mi, roughly triple Suffolk Country, Mass.), and we assume that the infections started at similar times (import for comparing rates), we'd expect Kings County to have about triple the infection rate of Suffolk County, but they are about the same (1,800 per 100k). Of course, this is 'known' positives, so perhaps it's a difference in testing and Kings County is under reporting. MA doesn't list tests by county, so it's hard to compare testing rates.

    At some point the usefulness of county data breaks down and it becomes a city by city exercise. Even then, the density city in MA is Somverville (18k sq/mi) with an infection rate of 800; whereas Chelsea (density of 15k) has a rate of over 8,000 right now. Chelsea's Median Household Income is $47k, vs $67k in Somerville, and poverty rates of 24% vs 12%, so there are likely interactions between density and wealth that that I'm not capturing, in addition to other factors. Building complex models is important and difficult to do, and is not my goal here.
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  13. #73
    Senior Member TJsName's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peakbagger View Post
    Update Public Campgrounds and Private campgrounds can reopen in NH to NH residents only. The governor extended the stay at home order until the end of the month

    https://www.wmur.com/article/new-ham...ates/32343346#

    The WMNF had stated they would align their policies with NH policies, I wonder if and when they will be reopening/opening the WMNF campgrounds?. NH never closed trailheads so no idea when WMNF will open trailheads or campsites.
    I see campgrounds and golf courses are open to NH residents and 'members'. Curious how many southern NH golf courses will see a spike in out of state membership. I golf occasionally, and a ton of the people I encounter on the course are addicted to it, and I suspect they would become members in NH if given the chance.
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  14. #74
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    When the NH campground roll out was announced there was a limitation that it was NH residents and existing members prior to a certain date. Obviously if the members loophole wasnt restricted the campgrounds or golf courses could just do a farcical daily membership policy to side step the limitation. I am not aware that the "prior to a certain date" was included in the actual administrative final rules.
    Last edited by peakbagger; 05-07-2020 at 05:25 AM.

  15. #75
    Senior Member B the Hiker's Avatar
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    For whatever it's worth, Connecticut is allowing its campgrounds to open in June.

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