Lots of Saturday Rescues

vftt.org

Help Support vftt.org:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.

peakbagger

Super Moderator
Staff member
VFTT Supporter
Joined
Sep 3, 2003
Messages
8,452
Reaction score
597
Location
Gorham NH
And this is why I always hike with a "full pack" when in the Whites or similar areas.
 
The NOAA forecast changed from sun to rain on Wednesday but we didn't get a drop at Province Pond.
 
I backpacked in the Caribou-Speckled Wilderness SAT/SUN and the forecast I looked at is definitely not what I got, particularly the wind. We camped out on the open ledges down on Cold Brook Trail and went to bed around 10PM to calm winds (Forecast I had last looked at I believe called for like 6-8 mph winds). At about 12:00am I was in an upside down tent in a small puddle trying to find the zippers for my door to flatten out the tent and get it out of the wind and find all the my gear. Got hit with a huge gust that was hard enough to blow my 225 lb body, my gear, a 6-8 lb rock I was using in one corner of the tent as an anchor and my other stuff up and over. To be fair, I wasn't staked in or tied down because it was supposed to be calm and I was on solid ledge and my tent orientation was perpendicular to the eventual wind because that is how the ledge was oriented. Was pretty cool experience actually (although it probably would have been different if it had rained - we didn't see any after about 5PM but you could see the random showers scattered all over the area). I was with a first time backpacker and her EMS tent was flailing around like a shopping bag hooked on the bumper of a car driving down the highway. She took it like a pro though. We had a good time. I can only imagine what was going on up on the higher peaks. We were only at about 2400' or so and somewhat shielded by Speckled Mountain's South shoulder and we were seeing wind gusts of probably 30-40mph.
 
The NOAA forecast changed from sun to rain on Wednesday but we didn't get a drop at Province Pond.
I was up there from THU to SUN and the NOAA forecast I was following was flip/flopping quite a bit from sun to rain and back. Must have been a very tough front to forecast.
 
It was definitely a stretch where the local media (TV) forecasts did not reflect the reality in the Whites. The TV stations are in the media markets along the coast and their forecasts are oriented to their locality. Southern coastal NH was seeing a warm mostly sunny day while the whites saw rain and wind most of the day particularly at the summits. The only real forecast to depend on was the OBS that day and few typical day hikers would use that forecast to plan their day (although they should). The net result was a lot of folks getting in over their heads and few getting in trouble with the expectation that with a cell phone call, NHF&G will come bail them out. Realistically the weather of late is closer to mid to late September weather then mid to late August.
 
I backpacked in the Caribou-Speckled Wilderness SAT/SUN and the forecast I looked at is definitely not what I got, particularly the wind. We camped out on the open ledges down on Cold Brook Trail and went to bed around 10PM to calm winds (Forecast I had last looked at I believe called for like 6-8 mph winds). At about 12:00am I was in an upside down tent in a small puddle trying to find the zippers for my door to flatten out the tent and get it out of the wind and find all the my gear. Got hit with a huge gust that was hard enough to blow my 225 lb body, my gear, a 6-8 lb rock I was using in one corner of the tent as an anchor and my other stuff up and over. To be fair, I wasn't staked in or tied down because it was supposed to be calm and I was on solid ledge and my tent orientation was perpendicular to the eventual wind because that is how the ledge was oriented. Was pretty cool experience actually (although it probably would have been different if it had rained - we didn't see any after about 5PM but you could see the random showers scattered all over the area). I was with a first time backpacker and her EMS tent was flailing around like a shopping bag hooked on the bumper of a car driving down the highway. She took it like a pro though. We had a good time. I can only imagine what was going on up on the higher peaks. We were only at about 2400' or so and somewhat shielded by Speckled Mountain's South shoulder and we were seeing wind gusts of probably 30-40mph.
I love that ledge. We were hoping to do a bivy trip somewhere in the Caribou to catch some perseids until I saw this wind forecast midweek. 53fd9734-cbfe-46ee-9c55-18b6b41f0a45_101474620043321.jpeg Even at the pond, we were up in the middle of the night as the wind ripped our tarps out of the ground.

Nice thing about all this rain is the ponds are still fishing like June. 20230819_172332.jpg
 
We planned a Saturday Presi traverse but as the week went on it was clear from all reports that Saturday was going to rain.
All day Saturday, the higher summits said crazy winds but getting better as the day went on. Mountain forecast said 25mph all day.
We went up Madison early Sunday from Watson and it was windy and tough to walk, but dozens of people where coming up from the hut. I'm surprised no one was injured.
I can't find a weather report I can trust. Higher summits is usually OK, but pessimistic and a very short time window. Everything else is just the same national weather service data in different packages.
Anyone subscribe to the Observatory, do you get earlier data?
 
I love that ledge. We were hoping to do a bivy trip somewhere in the Caribou to catch some perseids until I saw this wind forecast midweek. View attachment 7195 Even at the pond, we were up in the middle of the night as the wind ripped our tarps out of the ground.

Nice thing about all this rain is the ponds are still fishing like June. View attachment 7196
That's quite a trout for the backcountry! Nice.

I did see 5 or 6 shooting stars once I settled in to my tent turned burrito wrap bivy "bag" :)

We were hoping to do the sunset/meteor shower/sunrise thing. Sunset was blocked by clouds but stars and sunrise were good. My bivy spot wound up lining up perfectly with the rising sun. Lot of really wild cloud formations too. You were the one who suggested the CSW to me awhile back and I absolutely love that area. Been doing at least one backpacking trip in there every year since you mentioned it.

I'm assuming I confused the forecast for town with the summit. I usually check the closest summit I'll be on/near and the closest town so I have an idea of the range of weather I'm going to see. My last official check was WED afternoon because I drove up THU morning. FRI I did a quick (and obviously erroneous) check on my phone from Big Day Brewing where we ate dinner before heading to our campsite. I think I was preoccupied with whether or not it would be cloudy and didn't really notice the change in wind forecasted. Your forecast seems to be dead accurate to what we experienced. It was breezy!
 
We planned a Saturday Presi traverse but as the week went on it was clear from all reports that Saturday was going to rain.
All day Saturday, the higher summits said crazy winds but getting better as the day went on. Mountain forecast said 25mph all day.
We went up Madison early Sunday from Watson and it was windy and tough to walk, but dozens of people where coming up from the hut. I'm surprised no one was injured.
I can't find a weather report I can trust. Higher summits is usually OK, but pessimistic and a very short time window. Everything else is just the same national weather service data in different packages.
Anyone subscribe to the Observatory, do you get earlier data?

I use weather.gov and it is generally quite accurate, particularly wind speed and direction. I think my error was checking the weather for in town near where I would be, not the actual summit. I usually check both for trips.

I reference MWOBS on higher peak hikes but I feel like it is overly exaggerates wind and weather most of the time, possibly to deter hikers from going out in bad conditions. Weather.gov seems much better. I can think of many hikes I did in the Presi's where the winds were nowhere near what they forecast. I think it is because they measure so high up on the tower. I've been on Washington's summit viewing platform with a Kestrel meter and checked the wind against the MWOBS site and it is nowhere near as high at the exact same time.

I stopped using Mountain Forecast.com awhile back. I love the format of their site but I found it wildly inaccurate. Not sure if that has changed. It's been a few years since I used it. Lot of people on Facebook used to say they liked it.

Another website I love is Meteo Blue: MultiModel for North Woodstock - meteoblue. It is no more or less accurate than most but the Multimodel feature let's you see as many as 15 different forecast models for 3, 6 or 7 days. When the forecast models all generally agree you can usually trust the weather. When there is a lot of variation in the models you can figure on unsettled conditions and plan accordingly.
 
Top