long-term weather trends this "winter"

[arghman]

As much as I like the idea of a winter with warmer temperatures (we had bare ground in much of southern NH yesterday and the NWS forecast for my area over the next week shows highs in the 30s-low 40's, as seems to have been the case for much of January)...

...I can't go snowshoeing in the area, there are frost heaves on my street, and I'm sure this year's maple sap season is going to be screwed up.

Are there any websites/articles/etc. discussing this year's "winter" and why it's doing what it's doing (do we have an abnormally large # of politicians saying things ) and when it's going to get back to normal?

 

[SteveHiker]

what exactly would "normal" be? have we ever had a normal winter?

Blame it on El Nino. http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

 

[Puck]

I have heard on the weather cahnnel that a major foacto in our wnter weather is the "Greenland Block" as mass of heavy cold air that sits of the North Atlantic and causes a build up of the cold Canadian currents, these currents buldge south covering new england. Without the Greenland Blosk the air current just move on through.

 

[Stan]

If you want "normal" weather I think you must go to Lake Woebegone. It's normal there all the time. Same for San Diego.

Don't despair ... this is New Engalnd and as I look out my window , what to my wandering eyes should appear? rain, snow, sleet ... take your choice.

Think positive. There were lots of hikes you could have bare booted this weekend without offending anyone with postholes. The politics of postholes is nothing to mess around with. Climate change is small change compared to the important stuff in life, like postholing.

The thing that really worries me, however, is your outlook for maple syrup. I am a maplesyrupaholic and it troubles to me pay $40/gallon. I would think that the driving factors for a good season would be moist soils and proper night-day temperature differentials. The ground is wet and how long the sap will run is anybody's guess and, being New England, last week's weather is no indication of future performance.

 

[truepatriot09]

Found this great site researching the same question:

www.toddgross.com

He's a local meteorologist who updates his site frequently throughout the day and explains why we're getting the weather we're getting. Good stuff!

 

[blownaway]

Tell it to Moscow.......

 

[weatherman]

Greenland block, or NAO

Very cool site, truepatriot09! I was not aware of it. Cool.

<geek hat on>
I think the "Greenland block" referred to by Puck, the major reason for the warm weather lately (other than general global warming, also called "trends" by those avoiding political discussions) is something called the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO. Basically, when there is upper-level higher pressure centered over Greenland and lower pressure farther south, over the western North Atlantic and eastern US, cold air can get funneled from the Canadian Arctic south and east to us. That's called a "negative phase" of the NAO. The opposite, like we've had since about Christmas, is a "positive" NAO. In the 1990s when we had a ton of lousy winters (with the notable exception of 1995-6!), the + NAO predominated. Last year, we had a lot of - NAO time. The bad thing is that these patterns tend to get stuck somewhat. The good thing is that they do oscillate some.
The NAO is somewhat predictable out to about 10 days. There is a hint that the now-positive NAO will shift in a week to 10 days to favor the -NAO phase.

So, think -NAO!
<geek hat off>

-Weatherman

 

[uberturtle]

Madden-Julienne Oscillation

The weather so far kind of reminds me of the winter of 2001-2002. The prevailing weather pattern was oft quoted as the Madden-Julienne Oscillation, which indicated the oscillation of the jet stream North and South on approximatedly a 30 day cycle. Out of the 30 day cycle, you had 3-4 weeks of unusually mild weather, as the jet stream moved North and then 2-7 days of the usual weather as the jet stream moved back South (dumping Arctic air on us). Granted, I was in Hawaii until the middle of December and will be leaving for Japan (where the weather is really crappy this year!) next week, so I haven't had a real chance to study the system, yet. Just my thoughts.......

 

[Stan]

Hmmm. everyone's talking about this weather, when's someone going to do something about it?

 

[Nessmuk]

Tell it to Moscow.......

Yup, tell these folks about global warming in
Moscow.
"Arctic temperatures gripping most of Russia pushed the reported death toll close to 40 on Friday as weather forecasters warned that no major thaw is expected in Moscow before February."

 

[arghman]

thanks for the replies

thanks for all the replies. (this site is great!) I forgot about El Nino, the NOAA stuff about short-term climate is very helpful.

The thing that really worries me, however, is your outlook for maple syrup. I am a maplesyrupaholic and it troubles to me pay $40/gallon. I would think that the driving factors for a good season would be moist soils and proper night-day temperature differentials. The ground is wet and how long the sap will run is anybody's guess and, being New England, last week's weather is no indication of future performance.

I am not as worried about Feb/March/April weather (well, I am but can't do anything about it ) as I am the effect of this major Jan thaw... I'm not a tree expert but I was under the impression, perhaps wrong, that the effect of sap flow (conversion of root starches to sap sugar?) is cumulative and more of it in January due to freeze/thaw cycles means less of it in March before the buds start doing their thing and turning the sap bitter.

I'd worry less about paying $40/gallon to your nearby sugarhouse (it takes a lot of work!), than the globalized maple syrup market where the industry as a whole is dominated by the Quebec market which has lots more trees & better climate than New England.

 

[blownaway]

Yup, tell these folks about global warming in
Moscow.
"Arctic temperatures gripping most of Russia pushed the reported death toll close to 40 on Friday as weather forecasters warned that no major thaw is expected in Moscow before February."

Might be just the place for the next VFTT Winter Gathering.....

 

[snowshoe]

This is a great forum for weather. If you do a search this winters pattern has been brought up a lot. Or even ask your question here. There are some very knowledgable people .
http://forums.go.com/abclocal/WABC/forum?forumID=70&byThread=false

 

[Frodo]

Just think back to last winter... There was about the same amount of snowpack as now in the Whites, then February/March rolled around dumping storm after storm (law of averages) which took till mid June to melt. There was still over 2 feet of snow on the Twinway during Memorial Day Weekend (nothing like snowshoeing while being swarmed with blackflies )

Winter is a LONG way from being over...

 

[sli74]

Winter is a LONG way from being over...

I just might love you for saying that
I REALLY REALLY miss the SNOW.

sli74

 

[weatherman]

Sure, plenty of time...

We're really not too far behind last year snow-wise in many places... I seem to remember a trip report from somewhere in Maine on Groundhog day weekend last year that involved bare ground about a mile above sea level...
Lotsa time left. Just wait and see.

-Weatherman

 

[Quietman]

Yes I know that there is still time, but after hiking in 3+ feet of snow on Tecumseh before Halloween, looking at the bulb greens breaking through the soil before today's 6" snow was getting very depressing. Must be killing the ski areas, 3 straight weekends of rain/warm temps. Let's here it for a negative NAOI!!!

Talk about not being fair, who needs snow in Hawaii, send it here Mauna Kea Snow

Gotta love Joe Bastardi. Hated it when Accuweather started charging for his unique brand of forecasting.

 

[forestgnome]

Must be killing the ski areas, 3 straight weekends of rain/warm temps.

Bretton Woods, Wildcat, and Cranmore have been packed, doing brisk business. Spring conditions, corn and sun, attract a crowd.

This Saturday's forecast is looking similar!

Happy Trails!

 

[giggy]

yea - so far the only real difference from last year is the lack of extreme cold so far in jan - like frodo, I too recall the snow coming more in feb/march last year.

 

[sierra]

I do not believe in "weather trends" at all in the northeast. Everyone I ran into in the fall said it was going to be very cold and very snowy this year, its been niether. There are many factors and storm tracks that affect out weather here in the mountains, imo the only predicable thing about them is thier unpredicability.