Weekend Weather - Northern Presidentials

[Basurablanca]

Anyone care to speculate on the weather for the weekend in the Northern Presis (Adams, Madison, Jefferson)? Most forecasts seem to be calling for rain on Saturday but I have to wonder what the chances of that are above 4000'...time will tell, but why not speculate in the meantime?

If it does rain and then the temp drops it could make for some bulletproof conditions for the rest of the weekend...

 

[peakbagger]

The local forecast is for heavy rain turning to snow and getting much colder with a front coming through to add gusty winds to the picture. Sound like perfect conditions for hypothermia!. Unfortunately the trails are going to get real slick, possibly muddy at low elevations with the recent thaw and a lot of the stream crossings will be melted out. Give it a day or so to freeze up and it will be good crampons weather if we dont get too much snow at the tail end of the front.

 

[Jkrew81]

I am plagued by this very question myself this weekend. I had originally planed on a Washington summit on Sunday after an overnight on Saturday, but it does not sound like a good idea getting soaked on the approach then freezing above treeline.

 

[Basurablanca]

...but other than hypothermia, avalanche conditions and unarrested falls on glare ice into the trees, there's nothing to worry about, right?

Still wondering about whether it will really rain at altitude, but it certainly sounds like that's what's expected.

 

[blownaway]

Weekend Weather

Sounds like rain is a good possibility on Saturday (90% chance according to MW Underground).

If I really wanted to test the elements and were planning on an overnighter I would leave the tent at home and stay at Crag Camp. Setting up camp and breaking it down in the rain is the pits. A dry cabin would allow you to dry out overninght and at least give it a decent shot the next day. Bombproof gortex shells and waterproof boots would be essential.

Dont expect good visability due to the warm conditions. Prepare for anything...weather wise.

 

[giggy]

wasn't planning to hike this weekend but if I was - it would soon turn into a stay home and drink beer weekend - winter rain in mts miserable

unless your one of these folsk who enjoys hiking in cold rain -

the weather report looks pretty bad - cold, wet

 

[Chip]

wasn't planning to hike this weekend but if I was - it would soon turn into a stay home and drink beer weekend - winter rain in mts miserable

unless your one of these folsk who enjoys hiking in cold rain -

the weather report looks pretty bad - cold, wet

the weather report looks the same from PA through ME, somebody is going to have better weather than is forecast and I hope it's us !
you know what really stinks ? my only real new years resolution was to stop cherry-picking fair weather for my outings.
Well this weekend is going to test that resolve...all day saturday with Jay H and Daxs in the Catskills. Fortunately we'll be warm, dry and well fed saturday night...at some point.

 

[Jasonst]

Anyone care to speculate on the weather for the weekend in the Northern Presis (Adams, Madison, Jefferson)? Most forecasts seem to be calling for rain on Saturday but I have to wonder what the chances of that are above 4000'...time will tell, but why not speculate in the meantime?

If it does rain and then the temp drops it could make for some bulletproof conditions for the rest of the weekend...

Clever screen name.... White trash?

 

[weatherman]

For a while it was looking good...

earlier today when the models predicted more cold air and snow on Sat. Now it looks like it's really just going to stink. Rain sat, cold Sun/Mon. H800 (6000 ft) temps Sat are predicted to be +8C, then crash to -20C Sunday. Windy too. Good for crampon use, that's about it.
But who knows, I guess the models could flip-flop again. Keep your fingers crossed. And there may be some lake effect snow in a few spots where that's pertinent (not Northern Presis of course).
Weatherman

 

[gaiagirl]

Like Chip, looks like I'll be testing my own resolve to hike on as many days off as I possibly can and bag some NE winter peaks .... The long weekends' weather is looking to add some interesting twists and challenges for me in all my wimpy-ness .... LOL .... Oh well, they can't all be bright blue and cloudless sky beauties like last Saturday

 

[MikePS]

Looks horrible After sitting in a motel in Millinocket over Columbus day weekend, I am beginning to think there is a conspiracy against three day weekend hiking At least the Pats provide entertainment saturday night.Good luck and have Fun

 

[bobandgeri]

I am beginning to think there is a conspiracy against three day weekend hiking

At least Sunday and Monday look okay to get out there!

 

[Quietman]

Hey Weatherman, which models do you look at?

Here are some that I have found...

AVN long range
ETA short range
NOGAPS
NCEP weather map model
QPF Precip forecast model
NCEP Snowfall probabilities

Are there any other good ones that I haven't found yet?
If you can't tell, I'm a weather junkie.

 

[bobandgeri]

On the 5:30 WMUR Weather forecast they started talking about 3- 6 inches of snow Sat night - Sunday in the mountains and possible more!!!!

 

[weatherman]

Yeah, it's looking a little better...

which makes me SO glad I don't do this for a living... he he he. Not being able to tell which model is the best (and it seems to me that most real live meteorologists can't really tell either), I usually look at a couple but go with what NCEP tells me (and they have very cool graphics too), which was one of Quietman's favorites. You can get there at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml and surf around from there.

W7xman (who really is a met) and Mattl may know more too.

I'll be in the eastern Dacks with my wife the next 48 hours and we'll see what happens. If we get enough snow to cover the ice base and go XC skiing, I'll be very happy. Now I need to stock up on hand, foot, face, etc warmers for her...
Weatherman

 

[w7xman]

Simple answer...heavy rain changes late to heavy snow tomorrow in the mountains, then some heavy snow Sat night into sunday, with sharply colder temps.

On Sunday, look for continuing upslope snow showers through the hiking hours in the higher elevations, perhaps some clearing in the valleys. Summits begin to clear late sunday

Winds...strong from the south tomorrow, (above hurricane force gusts) Then calmer tomorrow night before strong from the NW sunday.

Stay dry tomorrow until the snow changes over late saturday afternoon or evening...

Rational...lots of warm air ahead of the system, and the upper level energy has no stimulus to move through the mountains after the surface storm pulls away = continued mountain snow sat night = sunday.

 

[gaiagirl]

Still sounding like mostly rain tomorrow even up on the higher NE summits, until late when it changes to snow ..... then tomorrow night into Sunday heavy snow with possible blizzard conditions including gusts up to 80mph ..... Oh my .... I'm packed and ready to go and planning on bagging some peaks if possible but I'm not going to risk my life to do it ..... Hope everyone enjoys the weekend, but I hope that they stay safe, more importantly.

 

[giggy]

those beers look better and better today...................cold rain & wind is worse than the following:

hacksaw decpaitation
blowtorch slaughter
sanded facless
bent backwards and broken
being force fed broken glass


anyone know who sings these great song titles?

but have fun

 

[mookie]

thats and easy one giggy
dont want to spoil the fun for everyone
C.C is a hint

 

[Neil]

Sounds like good weather to...
"Throw another log on the fire." Remeber Pete Hickey's version of this?