Mebbe a white Thanksgiving in the mountains?

[sardog1]

NWS Gray/Portland sent this teaser about an hour ago:

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MODELS
INDICATING A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT PRECIP WILL
START AS LIGHT SNOW LATE MON. THE MTNS MAY STAY WITH SNOW AS THE
COAST CHGS TO RAIN AT SOME POINT. THESE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE
WORKED OUT LATER. THERE WILL BE A STRONG SE LOW LVL JET BRINGING
LOTS OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC SO EXPECT A FAIRLY HEAVY PRECIP EVENT.

 

[sardog1]

Raining on my T-Day parade now

Well, the early morning shift has now progged the low to park over us, bringing perhaps more liquid than illiquid assets.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS POINT LOOKING LIKE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THE AREA GOING OVER TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. EXPECT SOME
TIMING AND TRACK CHANGES IN UPCOMING RUNS SO HAVE GONE WITH RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE FOR NOW.

ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AND STALL OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW BEING DRAWN BACK TO THE
WEST INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS.

THIS SYSTEM BASICALLY FORECAST TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER TIME.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.

 

[Mattl]

The low is going to ride up the coast and cut off over New England and pivot around for a week. This is going to be a very borderline event, but could stay all snow for the mountains which if it did, would mean more then a foot of snow. For the valleys, too early to say, we will have to see what the final track is. Either way, as the low is moving out it will pull in colder air and should snow for a lot of us. Looks like an impressive storm and interesting situation. -Mattl

 

[weatherman]

Argh. If it's going to be so dang cold, it might as well at least snow and not be snow-rain-sleet-rain-flood-glop-freeze solid. Not all the NWS offices agree with one another on this situation, though, so a couple more days will tell more.

Does it strike anyone else as weird, though, that we have had so many persistent closed lows with unending rain this year? That happens a lot in the spring but goes away by June most years. Typically this time of year everything moves through quite fast.

Weatherman

 

[Mattl]

I agree weatherman, this closed low is atypical of this time of year. Normally when you get strong cold fronts, lows shoot through, often following fronts. This one is coming up, and then stalling and cutting off, like spring rain storm. I think it will be cloudy the entire week next week with on and off precip. The rain/snow line with this is going to be tricky, and is going to be one of those last minute decisions. Hopefully is develops a little further east and brings more snow then rain.
-Mattl

 

[Waumbek]

Franconia (valley) is white this morning with an inch or so of snow overnight; steady light snow continues. Cannon reports 3" of new snow in the last 24 hours.

 

[Barbarossa]

Does it strike anyone else as weird, though, that we have had so many persistent closed lows with unending rain this year?
Weatherman

Not being a weatherman, I only know which way the wind blows.

Could you give a nutshell explanation of your terminology?

 

[sardog1]

Teach a person to fish and he/she "don't need a weatherman to know (more than) which way the wind blows":

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/glossary.php?letter=c

Scroll down to "Closed low." You'll see that you're in the the NWS Glossary, where you can find all kinds of jargon explained.

 

[Barbarossa]

Teach a person to fish and he/she "don't need a weatherman to know (more than) which way the wind blows":

You don't need a weatherman to know which way the compass shines.

This should keep me occupied for a few hours.

Thanks!

 

[Orsonab]

Just put my snow tyres on....and, thus, it won't snow till at least Christmas......

 

[weatherman]

sorry, using shorthand... I'll explain how I understand it and any real meteorologists here can beat me soundly. Surface weather systems, like low pressure areas, fronts, etc. are pushed along by steering currents in the mid atmosphere, like 15-35,000 feet up. When the steering currents don't go in straight or somewhat curvy lines, but rather in tightly curved lines or circles, you get "upper level systems" like highs, lows, etc. where the pressure at a given altitude is different from the average around it. A "closed low" is an upper level system that goes in a complete circle and steers surface systems slowly counterclockwise (in the Northern Hemisphere), in other words, stops them in their tracks for a while. They tend to form and break down over a few days. Long-duration storms, like the Blizzard of '78 (my favorite growing up), tend to happen when a surface low and an upper low get "locked" together for a while.

This year, we've had far too many "lockups" which have contributed somewhat, though not completely, to the long, rainy periods we've had.

Now, I would not be complaining or wasting words if these were snowy.