New snow storm for Dec. 16-17?

[sardog1]

New snow storm for Dec. 15-17?

Originally Posted by DrewKnight
Matt, what are you seeing Sunday night into Monday AM? Roemer (BestSkiWeather.com) is now calling for probable, significant (foot-plus) northern storm.

He sees later today materializing as several inches of snow (or more) north, with mixed precip south, and Thursday as lighter north and more significant south, but seems particularly excited about prospects for the end of the weekend.

Originally Posted by grouseking
I'll fill in for Matt as he's at work right now. Though sometimes he comes on anyways.

We actually have a three more storms coming, the first coming later this afternoon. Looks to be all snow in the mtns.... a nice 2-4 inches, possibly mixing with a bit of sleet in any valley. Hanover is under a Winter Weather advisiory for a mixed bag of snow sleet and freezing rain....blah.

Then Thursday's storm could be a southern New England special, they may issue winter storm watches for 6 inches or more along the Mass Pike. Still, since its going to be very cold up north, a healthy 2-4, or 3-6 inches of very fluffy snow is possible in the mtns.

Which brings us to Sunday....

One of the latest models brings a storm right off Atlantic City Sunday, and then up to Cape Cod canal towards Monday. If you were to read that face value, its a good run for northern and central New England, and the Adirondacks for big snows, not to mention all the way back towards the Binghamton area.

Obviously I will believe it when I see it, but the storm has been on the charts for days. But we had might as well get through these other moderate storms before the potential "monster" this weekend. In fact, some places in southern New England may get their biggest snow of the year later Thursday.

That is all.

grouseking

I plucked this from the original thread about last week's storm. Figured this new one deserves its own moment in the sun, so to speak. "Mad" Henry Margusity is already a little worked up about it, so why shouldn't we be?

 

[grouseking]

Good idea. The other one was gettin kinda old. But as I said before, lets deal with these other storms first.

Tonight its gonna rain in southern NE btw.

 

[dentonfabrics]

A lot going on this week. NECN reporting storms for tonite into Wed, all day Thursday, and Sat nite into Sunday. I'll be heading up north tomorrow as long as it's snow, not rain.

 

[grouseking]

So temps were borderline here in the upper valley, actually got above freezing in Lebanon, still above actually as I write this. Still got some nasty ice though.

Thursday we have a nice moderate snow coming around here...possibly enough for a winter storm watch in southern New England. And then Sunday looks like fun.

Disclaimer...for entertainment purposes only! But it sure is fun to look at!!!

Possible snowfall accumulation map for Sunday's storm, well ending Monday.

 

[DrewKnight]

Cool chart... ugly color!

Thanks, Grouseking... very cool chart, but bleah, why did they choose baby-barf beigy-pink for the prettiest spot on the map?

The Boston area forecasters are now calling for 3-6" in Southern NE tomorrow afternoon and evening, but with a sharp northern cut-off, so the Whites may not benefit much. Sounds like the Sunday storm could make for tough travel home, so plan accordingly, or better yet, plan to stay an extra day if you have to travel south...

 

[skiguy]

Time for the PONTOONS

 

[Mattl]

Haha yeah it should be a more attractive color for such a wonderful thing such as heavy snowfall. The storm is looking more and more now for Sunday. Some slight changes have shown for it regarding speed..The speed of this storm is what will not make it as big as some of the monsters in the past, its going to fly through. Although, with its rapid deepening there will be some very heavy snow with this, I would say 2-3 inches an hour at times. Also southern New England you will get a nice shot of snow tomorrow, 3-6 or 4-8. Something I think is impressive is on backcountry trail conditions you can notice there is 2-3 feet on the ground already in the Whites, then after this storm Sunday, will be the most we have had on the ground this early in the year for quite some time. -Mattl

 

[grouseking]

All in all, another nice snow for the northern sections. If you look at the backcountry weather conditions, you see most areas picked up between 3-5 inches of snow. I'm still relatively confident for a very fluffy snowfall on Thursday night even up north, so that will help to add up the totals a little bit.

http://www.outdoors.org/recreation/tripplanner/go/backcountry-weather.cfm

We'll deal with Sunday after tomorrow.

 

[skiguy]

Say Grouseking is the above map updating like the last one you put up or do you you have a link to it? Thanks in advance. This has been quite the couple of good weeks...I feel like a kid who got a season's pass to a candy store

 

[grouseking]

Say Grouseking is the above map updating like the last one you put up or do you you have a link to it? Thanks in advance. This has been quite the couple of good weeks...I feel like a kid who got a season's pass to a candy store

No because I saved it. What I can do is show everyone the link....
Here is an example.

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_36HR.gif

This is the GFS snowfall forecast accumulation 36 hours, it updates every day. If you want to change the map, change the number before HR. It runs in increments of 3 hours, and goes to 120 hours. If you want the 3, 6 or 9 hour maps, type it in as 03, 06 , or 09. Again, this is just one computer model's take, and it assumes 10 to 1 ratio, 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain. Today's storm in most areas is not 10 to 1, its higher, more like 15 to 1. Also, another catch, if you look out in time and notice those big amounts that is the cumulative amounts the end of the period. So if there are 2 snowstorms in 120 hours, it shows the total amount. So it may be a little misleading, especially this week.Another reason why you should just look at these as a guide, esp days in advance... But this weekend's storm is still going to be big.

BTW, if you can, go home early today, esp if you live in southern and south central New England. Its really going to be a heavy nasty snowstorm. Beat the traffic and go for a hike! I wish I could!

Hope that helps.

grouseking

 

[skiguy]

Thanks cool stuff

 

[DrewKnight]

Very cool, Grouseking!

Thanks for the map-source, it has joined my storm-tracking scan list with distinction.

Roemer is now hedging a bit on Sunday -- storm track looks likely more north ("May spare the big cities the brunt") with some chance it will track east but he thinks it's still likely a big-snow event in the mountains.

 

[una_dogger]

Its snowing big time right now in Acton, MA.

 

[TDawg]

Started at 1:20pm here in Holderness.

 

[KayakDan]

Ok,I'm totally confused. NOAA,and Weather Underground are both calling for occasional light snow in northern NH on Saturday,in to Sunday,a few inches at best(worst?).

Boston stations and BestSkiWeather.com are calling for this massive dump of snow up north over the weekend.

We're suppposed to head in to Zealand on Saturday. I'm not that enthusiastic about breaking trail for 6+ miles if the "massive dump" occurs.

Anybody have other info?

 

[DrewKnight]

This one is clearly a tough call...

You hit it on the head, KayakDan... The weather outlets are all over the map on this one:

* NOAA is calling for snow then mixed precip in Waterville Valley (1500 feet)

* Weather.com is calling for snow, then mixed precip (probably based on NOAA)

* WUnderground is "light snow possible", then "light snow certain"

* Mt Washington Observatory is "heavy snow Sunday"

* BestSkiWeather is monster storm, 1.5 to 3.0 feet in the Whites (but he was hedging a bit last night on the storm track). He thinks conditions could be "impossible" Sunday, at least for skiing, where high winds could make for wind-holds on the lifts.

And of course, the TV news outlets are already building out their Blizzard of '07 graphics and taping their "World ends, Film at 11" tags.

In any event -- it sounds like things will crank up Saturday night later, and, depending on who you believe, howl through till Monday AM. Or maybe it'll be snow flurries. I personally would err on the side of assuming it will be substantial snow and plan accordingly.

 

[skiguy]

I'm no weather guy but it doesnot look like the heavy snow is going to be widespread and so far it looks like the mountains will get the bulk of it. yo Matt and grouseking what's happening?

 

[king tut]

12-20 inches forecasted for VT. I suspect Jay will get a good 30-40 inches. This winter is more than making up for all the lame winters in the last 5 years. Life is good.

 

[Mattl]

So this storm is certainly looking like a monster! It is tapping tropical moisture from what was Olga, Pacific, and Gulf! Thats rare, and because of that this storm is more complex then normal. Now there is certainly no one calling for light snow with this, its a very heavy precip producer and right now Burlington has issued 12-18 already for the entire area, Gray forecasting office has not given amounts yet. The fly in the ointment is the track of the low, yesterdays runs were slightly farther inland which is bad for central areas of Nh, VT, and ME, the mountains would be fine. Now the low is farther south and east which is great for central NH and VT. It is looking like this will be be 12-18 for valleys and 2 ft plus for the mountains. It will also have the potential for blizzard conditions. So here we go! -Matt

ps: I was on the Kinsman Pond Trail today and had to turn around at 3500 ft because of exhaustion from breaking 40 inches of powder..can imagine this after..It certainly is making up for it!

 

[Mohamed Ellozy]

ps: I was on the Kinsman Pond Trail today and had to turn around at 3500 ft because of exhaustion from breaking 40 inches of powder..can imagine this after..It certainly is making up for it!

This is a very important point. Whatever happens this weekend, we already have a lot of snow on the ground.

Last Sunday I hiked Tecumseh, the trail had obviously been packed hard after the Monday storm. I returned yesterday, and had to use my snowshoes. Both my poles and my snowshoe crampons hit rock occasionally, but I also ran into a few surprisingly deep drifts.

There has been no serious melting, and over the past ten days we have had repeated additions of small amounts of snow; last night saw about three inches here in the valley.

Anyone care for a pair of used StabilIcers