Potential New Year's blizzard to blanket New England mountains

This morning, Weather Underground is calling for 2-4" in the western/central Whites, the big stuff staying over in Maine. Of course the upper elevations will likely get more, but this is good for those who have to drive to where they're going to play in the snow.

MichaelJ said:

This morning, Weather Underground is calling for 2-4" in the western/central Whites, the big stuff staying over in Maine. Of course the upper elevations will likely get more, but this is good for those who have to drive to where they're going to play in the snow.

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Accuweather has shifted the 12-18" center slightly to the northeast of the Whites. Once again, wind may be the story of this storm. And that's not just wind at higher elevations that affects only hikers. I really did see a car blown off I-93 near Exit 30 on Tuesday afternoon. I'd only ever seen that happen before to big boxy vehicles in high mountain passes in CA.
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=1

This storm(s) is very very confusing, lets take it on part at a time. The first batch is coming through today with light snow for southern areas, then from now till Saturday, periods of light snow develop everywhere, this is part of multiple troughs and lows trying to get their act together. On Saturday, a very large, deep storm is going to develop east of Maine, coming in somewhere around 968 mb or lower. The storm will pivot back west because of a huge Greenland Block. The storm system will tap cold air to the west and move towards the New England coastlines. How far west this comes is going to make all the difference in the world for snow amounts. The reason I still care about this storm is because I think blizzard conditions will exist in the Whites over the weekend, especially Saturday night into Monday morning. I think winds will easily gust 100-120 on MWN, and 50-60 for others. Be very careful if you hike above treeline Sunday or Monday, this will be a dangerous storm for those areas.

For snow amounts, I think places like the Carters and Hermit Lake will receive the most with perhaps 2 feet by Monday night. It will create huge drifts though and temps should be in the single digits. We have to wait till Friday to pin point these amounts.

-Mattl

Do we have any actual meteorologists amongst us?

Every time there is a winter storm (as in every week of the winter months) we have one of these massively speculative threads about it.

I'm often wonder if there are hikers getting their sole information from threads like this. I am not aware whether VFTT has anyone qualified to actually be predicting weather.

I'm not trying to be a jerk, I'd just like some clarification. It's human nature to discuss the weather but I think people should make it clear if they are just throwing out their own analysis of what is readily available on conventional weather sites or if they actually are authorities on the subject.

Happy New Year!

I hope none of you were coming home from the mts today. On 93 south around 4:30pm today (just over an hour ago), we counted 13 vehicles spun out or wrecked in 5 different incidents between mile markers 66-63. The last one involved injuries. Also, in that same stretch there were at least 3 northbound wrecks that we could see thru the trees too. Sheets of ice...

Drive carefully.


bob

I think a below tree line hike should be ok for Sat and Sun.

Is anyone else heading up to the mountains this weekend?

This one is still hard to call, according to latest NWS weather alert for No. Grafton County (Franconia):

ssued by The National Weather Service
Portland, ME
5:53 pm EST, Fri., Jan. 1, 2010

... WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW THIS EVENING WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL GIVE US SNOWFALL TONIGHT IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE BACK TO THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES... HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING JUST HOW MUCH SNOW AND WIND WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET... OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

More Information
... A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

.A COMPLEX WINTER STORM WILL THREATEN THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE SNOWFALL ON CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. IN THIS AREA... 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW... WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS... IS EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING... BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TONIGHT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE BACK TO THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES... HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING JUST HOW MUCH SNOW AND WIND WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MAKE SURE TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.

A picture is worth a decent post:

So far many places have had 4-6 since Thursday, with some areas by tomorrow morning with 8+, BEFORE the main storm even arrives. Some of the models are maxing the snowfall right over the northern Whites. So from Cannon, to Carter, there will be 18-24 inches, and 3 feet in places like Hermit Lake and the Twin area. Very strong winds and plummeting temps on Saturday night will make for extremely dangerous conditions Sunday above 3000 feet. They are talking about winds in excess of 140 mph on Mount Washington. With the drifting that is going to happen with this, everything will look a little different by Tuesday when things wind down.

This storm is forecasts to deepen to 958 mb just outside Nova Scotia! Outside the Whites, tough to forecast, so go with NWS on this one. Even they, don't seem to have a clue.

-Mattl

And I'm missing it all!! But I'll be back in New England soon, for a permanent stay.

Bet your glad to be returning to New England Grouseking!

I already have 6" in Peterborough, which is above yesterday's forecast for the storm through Sunday. Bring it on!

Good luck on the surgery df!

Issued by The Weather Channel
4:51 pm EST, Sat., Jan. 2, 2010
The latest snowfall reports from The National Weather Service in Gray, ME: Concord Airport, 6.4"... Hollis, 6.2"... Auburn, 6.0"... Portland-n Deering, 5.7"... Londonderry, 4.8"... Alton Bay, 4.5"... Kennebunk, 4.0"... North Conway, 4.0"... Gray Nws Office, 3.9"... Strafford, 3.8"... Portland Jetport, 2.6".

Franconia has 5-6" of new snow (today's), it's coming down at a moderate to heavy rate now, and the wind is beginning to crank up.

Just built a snowcave in the front yard here in Melrose and we're now heading out for a headlamp snowshoe at the Fells! Bring it Ullr!

7 inches here in Enfield, and Wildcat is coming in at 16 so far, Cannon 12. Winds are really starting to blow it around too.

Steady, light snow in Waterville Valley all day... 3-4, maybe even 5-6" total accumulation. But no big dumping. Still, conditions are improving. Latest NWS forecast calls for light to moderate accumulations tonight and tomorrow. The wind has been picking up this evening, but not holding out too much hope for a major event. Sigh.

Welcome back (soon?), Grouseking!

Drew you should do well tonight, since the best part is just developing.

Since the Arm Chair Weathermen Association (ACWA) is making their predictions I will add mine....

I predict the storm will drop 4-6 inches of fire and brimstone with eventual change over to locusts as a ridge of high pressure results in temps rising causing possible deaths of first born males which could be followed by unhealable boils. But if your water starts turning to blood then you best seek shelter as the apocalypse is near.



Brian

Mattl said:

Drew you should do well tonight, since the best part is just developing.

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Yup, heavy snow is blowing horizontally.

We had about 3-4 inches in Burlington VT through this afternoon, and i just checked outside and my car has 10 new inches of snow on it since about 6 o clock tonight. It is dumping.

Blanket of snow

The land is covered in white snow up to my thighs! Marley and I are going out to play in the winter wonder land of snow. The snow is light and fluffy, we may have so much fun that we may never come back!

BTW no snowshoes for this stuff just a good pair of gore-tex pants.