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Thread: Wow, this a trip report for the books!

  1. #46
    Senior Member DayTrip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike P. View Post
    While I'm skeptical of DT's -35 For what I looked up on the Internet for officially measured record lows in Woodstock, -12 in Feb 2016 and January's record is -13.
    It was with the wind chill and 2016 sounds right but I'm not sure. I used to keep notes and stuff for a lot of this stuff but I don't anymore. I started Winter hiking in 2013 and it took me a few years to accumulate the gear. My Kestrel meter battery tends to turn off below about -15 deg F if it is exposed to temperatures that low for any length of time so it would be fair to say I could have been off a few degrees. I went off the calculation on the meter. It was the coldest I can remember it here since we moved to the area in 2003. We live on the North side of a roughly 400' elevation hill and we're probably a third of the way up the hill. I doubt there was any kind of inversion thing going like you'd see in a legit valley. I'm in farm country. I suppose I could have my wife find the photo on her Facebook page because she thought I was nuts but I doubt she'll want to take the time to research.
    Last edited by DayTrip; 02-26-2021 at 01:01 PM. Reason: spelling, added context
    “Sometimes when you’ve lost something in your life that matters, the only thing left to do is go and find it.” Renan Ozturk

  2. #47
    Junior Member Mitts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DayTrip View Post
    You may find this article of interest: https://www.project-risk-manager.com...risk-analysis/

    It explains the "convoluted and illogical risk" model I subscribe to which happens to be pretty common across a wide variety of industries and organizations. Pretty mainstream stuff. The bibliography in Ty Gagne's books reference several sources detailing this model.

    In the "Missing hiker's dog turns up" thread you are applying the concepts in that article and the concept of FMEA incorrectly. You take the same logical shortcuts in this thread when it comes to gear. The only thing more dangerous than taking a risk is taking a risk when you think you're not. Again, I have nothing against your personal thoughts or actions I just cant in good conscious be a part of this community and allow your statements to stand unchallenged.

  3. #48
    Senior Member DayTrip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mitts View Post
    In the "Missing hiker's dog turns up" thread you are applying the concepts in that article and the concept of FMEA incorrectly. You take the same logical shortcuts in this thread when it comes to gear. The only thing more dangerous than taking a risk is taking a risk when you think you're not. Again, I have nothing against your personal thoughts or actions I just cant in good conscious be a part of this community and allow your statements to stand unchallenged.
    Could you please explain that? And I do NOT mean that contentiously but for my understanding purposes. Because the reading I've done on this model (Likelihood x Consequence = Risk #) is what I was trying to convey and it would appear others were confused by my comments so maybe I was not making my point right. I evaluate "risk" as those two pieces: the probability something could happen and the consequences of it happening. This collective assessment is my overall "risk".

    As an example, let's say on a hike on a particular trail I have a 90% risk of falling but the consequence of falling is I land in 2 feet of fluffy powder, all my friends get a good belly laugh and I get up unscathed. I took a high risk of falling but the consequences of a fall were inconsequential. So overall, I don't find this risky. Conversely, let's say I'm on the knife edge on Katahdin and have only a 1% chance of falling but if I do fall I die. Compared to my first scenario, my risk of a fall is way lower. But I'd be far less likely to take on that 1% versus the 90% risk of making a snow angel. You have to look at the two pieces independently, and for all the individual variables, to arrive at an overall "risk" assessment. Does that make sense?

    I'd appreciate it if you would take the time to break down the logical shortcuts and incorrect assumptions I am making, particularly with the gear. Really. I'm serious. And don't confuse my animated responses as some sort of annoyance at your "challenge". I welcome the argument/discussion/challenge and if it's as exceptional as you allege you should have pointed it out sooner. When you say "you can't let my statements stand unchallenged" you are implying I am doing something far more nefarious than I am, intentionally or otherwise. I am proclaiming nothing. Just attempting to explain my thought process. From my point of view, I'm not explaining myself correctly and it is annoying me that the responses by others reflect that. And if I wind up finding out I'm a total dumb ass then I've learned something.
    Last edited by DayTrip; 02-26-2021 at 01:19 PM.
    “Sometimes when you’ve lost something in your life that matters, the only thing left to do is go and find it.” Renan Ozturk

  4. #49
    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DayTrip View Post
    So how did you develop a better model for an unplanned overnight? Do you spontaneously schedule "unplanned overnights" to learn from the experience? That would seem contradictory to surprise yourself on purpose. If you planned for it how would it be an "unplanned event"? This whole thought process makes no sense to me.
    My least favorite Merit Badge and themed camp out is the "Wilderness Survival" camp out. Take several teens, tell them you forgot tents, sleeping bags or a bear separates you from tents, food and food, whatever, we'll buy fish or plan on extra trail mix and have to make shelters. (BTW, I believe the Henniker Troop does this on top of Pat's Peaks because every year I walk up and there is a stick structure leaning against a boulder near the top) Our last trip I ended up with Lyme. We don't bring fishing poles, even on canoe trips and not sure our scouts could catch fish or have an interest in catching fish

    My problem with this is I should be watching the time so I don't come back in the dark. I should have lights so dark doesn't matter, why is my food storage skills so bad, I attract bears, if canoe camping and I capsize the boat, everything should be tied in. They do this at summer camp where a bad day in July in CT likely won't kill you, providing you don't pick a bear den for your shelter. A trip where I plan to not plan seems counter to "be prepared"
    Have fun & be safe
    Mike P.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by DayTrip View Post
    I evaluate "risk" as those two pieces: the probability something could happen and the consequences of it happening. This collective assessment is my overall "risk".

    As an example, let's say on a hike on a particular trail I have a 90% risk of falling
    One thing I notice is that you sometimes use the word risk in place of probability. It can be confusing to those who don't.

  6. #51
    Senior Member DayTrip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfb View Post
    One thing I notice is that you sometimes use the word risk in place of probability. It can be confusing to those who don't.
    Now that's what I'm talking about. Thanks. I should be saying "probability" and "consequences" = "risk". I don't do well in written form. I get too wordy. These conversations are much more fun over a fine beverage in real time.
    “Sometimes when you’ve lost something in your life that matters, the only thing left to do is go and find it.” Renan Ozturk

  7. #52
    Senior Member DayTrip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike P. View Post
    My least favorite Merit Badge and themed camp out is the "Wilderness Survival" camp out. Take several teens, tell them you forgot tents, sleeping bags or a bear separates you from tents, food and food, whatever, we'll buy fish or plan on extra trail mix and have to make shelters. (BTW, I believe the Henniker Troop does this on top of Pat's Peaks because every year I walk up and there is a stick structure leaning against a boulder near the top) Our last trip I ended up with Lyme. We don't bring fishing poles, even on canoe trips and not sure our scouts could catch fish or have an interest in catching fish

    My problem with this is I should be watching the time so I don't come back in the dark. I should have lights so dark doesn't matter, why is my food storage skills so bad, I attract bears, if canoe camping and I capsize the boat, everything should be tied in. They do this at summer camp where a bad day in July in CT likely won't kill you, providing you don't pick a bear den for your shelter. A trip where I plan to not plan seems counter to "be prepared"
    My memory isn't as good as it used to be but I'd have a hard time fooling myself in an exercise like this as a solo hiker. I get what you're saying though. That is much closer to an unplanned incident than I am capable of rehearsing so I try to intentionally go out in horrible conditions on purpose (as you know) to develop experience I hope I can draw on if it happened "for real". Nothing is ever quite like the real thing. Just trying to increase my odds of a favorable outcome where it is possible.
    “Sometimes when you’ve lost something in your life that matters, the only thing left to do is go and find it.” Renan Ozturk

  8. #53
    Senior Member sierra's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DayTrip View Post
    Could you please explain that? And I do NOT mean that contentiously but for my understanding purposes. Because the reading I've done on this model (Likelihood x Consequence = Risk #) is what I was trying to convey and it would appear others were confused by my comments so maybe I was not making my point right. I evaluate "risk" as those two pieces: the probability something could happen and the consequences of it happening. This collective assessment is my overall "risk".

    As an example, let's say on a hike on a particular trail I have a 90% risk of falling but the consequence of falling is I land in 2 feet of fluffy powder, all my friends get a good belly laugh and I get up unscathed. I took a high risk of falling but the consequences of a fall were inconsequential. So overall, I don't find this risky. Conversely, let's say I'm on the knife edge on Katahdin and have only a 1% chance of falling but if I do fall I die. Compared to my first scenario, my risk of a fall is way lower. But I'd be far less likely to take on that 1% versus the 90% risk of making a snow angel. You have to look at the two pieces independently, and for all the individual variables, to arrive at an overall "risk" assessment. Does that make sense?

    I'd appreciate it if you would take the time to break down the logical shortcuts and incorrect assumptions I am making, particularly with the gear. Really. I'm serious. And don't confuse my animated responses as some sort of annoyance at your "challenge". I welcome the argument/discussion/challenge and if it's as exceptional as you allege you should have pointed it out sooner. When you say "you can't let my statements stand unchallenged" you are implying I am doing something far more nefarious than I am, intentionally or otherwise. I am proclaiming nothing. Just attempting to explain my thought process. From my point of view, I'm not explaining myself correctly and it is annoying me that the responses by others reflect that. And if I wind up finding out I'm a total dumb ass then I've learned something.
    One of the shortcomings of VFTT is the abundance of arrogance, that some it's members possess. It's not enough that they are great hikers, they have to point out the shortcomings of others at will. They know what the right way is, period. Fortunately for me, I could care less, I'm extremely confidant in my skillset. Just my 2 cents, carry on.

  9. #54
    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mitts View Post
    In the "Missing hiker's dog turns up" thread you are applying the concepts in that article and the concept of FMEA incorrectly. You take the same logical shortcuts in this thread when it comes to gear. The only thing more dangerous than taking a risk is taking a risk when you think you're not. Again, I have nothing against your personal thoughts or actions I just cant in good conscious be a part of this community and allow your statements to stand unchallenged.
    We are certainly for challenging and different points of view. Welcome. When things get too technical for me, I still fall back to Doug Paul. Dogs for the most part are better at finding their way then people and they can't even read map or a GPS or hold it except in their mouths. (I didn't read the dog thread and am not planning on it)
    Have fun & be safe
    Mike P.

  10. #55
    Senior Member DayTrip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sierra View Post
    One of the shortcomings of VFTT is the abundance of arrogance, that some it's members possess. It's not enough that they are great hikers, they have to point out the shortcomings of others at will. They know what the right way is, period. Fortunately for me, I could care less, I'm extremely confidant in my skillset. Just my 2 cents, carry on.
    The only reason I joined this forum was to learn stuff. I've never been afraid to ask a stupid question, never really cared what people think about me (provided they are accurately portraying what I am saying - which I feel like is not happening in this thread and what I am really objecting to) and don't really care about the level of fondness anyone has for themselves. As a result, I have learned a ton of valuable information from numerous individuals who looked past that nonsense. If someone calls me a total $$$hole and proceeds to outline in detail why I am an $$$hole and I learn something from it - mission accomplished.

    “If someone is able to show me that what I think or do is not right, I will happily change, for I seek the truth, by which no one was ever truly harmed. It is the person who continues in his self-deception and ignorance who is harmed.”
    ― Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

    "You can't learn what you think you already know" - Epictetus
    Last edited by DayTrip; 02-26-2021 at 01:54 PM.
    “Sometimes when you’ve lost something in your life that matters, the only thing left to do is go and find it.” Renan Ozturk

  11. #56
    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DayTrip View Post
    My memory isn't as good as it used to be but I'd have a hard time fooling myself in an exercise like this as a solo hiker. I get what you're saying though. That is much closer to an unplanned incident than I am capable of rehearsing so I try to intentionally go out in horrible conditions on purpose (as you know) to develop experience I hope I can draw on if it happened "for real". Nothing is ever quite like the real thing. Just trying to increase my odds of a favorable outcome where it is possible.
    I'm done hiking in tropical storms in TN, once was enough. It was that, or having my elderly in-laws, my wife and five and two year old children spend that day in Dollywood. It was that or staying in the rental home all day, that really wasn't an option I finished my solo 48 in a raw June rain on the Tri's just seeing a ranger. I'm looking at avoiding those days on anything taller or longer than Willard.
    Have fun & be safe
    Mike P.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by sierra View Post
    One of the shortcomings of VFTT is the abundance of arrogance, that some it's members possess. It's not enough that they are great hikers, they have to point out the shortcomings of others at will. They know what the right way is, period. Fortunately for me, I could care less, I'm extremely confidant in my skillset. Just my 2 cents, carry on.
    Did you participate in the AMC Bulletin Boards before they were abandoned? This thread seems to be similar to some of theirs. When I started following the AMC site, I noticed that many of the opinions did not seem to be based on people's actual experiences but more on what was in the AMC lesson plan for the course.

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by DayTrip View Post
    I started Winter hiking in 2013 and it took me a few years to accumulate the gear.
    If you look back to some of your early posts when you were trying to figure out what gear to buy, I'll bet you find something I wrote that recommended buying a warm down parka and insulated pants and carrying them instead of a sleeping bag.

  14. #59
    Senior Member DayTrip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfb View Post
    If you look back to some of your early posts when you were trying to figure out what gear to buy, I'll bet you find something I wrote that recommended buying a warm down parka and insulated pants and carrying them instead of a sleeping bag.
    That is entirely possible. I remember liking the idea of being able to move in the stuff I brought versus having to stop and get in something. I think there is a lot of value in being able to stay moving, especially in Winter, if injury and/or really rough circumstances do not prevent it.
    Last edited by DayTrip; 02-26-2021 at 02:21 PM. Reason: clarity
    “Sometimes when you’ve lost something in your life that matters, the only thing left to do is go and find it.” Renan Ozturk

  15. #60
    Senior Member Mike P.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sierra View Post
    One of the shortcomings of VFTT is the abundance of arrogance, that some it's members possess. It's not enough that they are great hikers, they have to point out the shortcomings of others at will. They know what the right way is, period. Fortunately for me, I could care less, I'm extremely confidant in my skillset. Just my 2 cents, carry on.
    I'd say one could say it's a bunch of us and at times that's me too. We don't try, but all these hours in the woods and elements do tend to shape our personalities. If you are enjoying your hikes and you feel you are not risking your life excessively, that should make you a great hiker. Your list, his list, her list, their list, doesn't really matter except to the one keeping it.

    For some, being a great hiker might be 40 mile 8-10 peak traverses, for some it's a stroll with a view on a great day, for some, it's bringing the love of the outdoors to others or conversely greeting away and seeing no one, and for others pushing the elements.

    The majority of the non-hiking crowd thinks we're all idiots if we are out in the snow and ice when it's cold. Healthy debate on rescues should be encouraged. Heck we second guess pro quarterbacks and pro athletes and maybe there is one or two VFTT'er who might be okay actually doing that.
    Last edited by Mike P.; 02-26-2021 at 02:18 PM.
    Have fun & be safe
    Mike P.

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