Fatality on Mt. Guyot

[sierra]

When you say this, do you mean you were out on a day with no poor weather in the forecast and you saw a storm? Or do you mean you've seen isolated areas get much worse weather than the overall area? That is different to me. I've been out on plenty of days where I either missed or got hit by worse weather than another spot, but the potential for that weather was in the forecast. One particularly memorable one was a Southern Presi traverse I did where I came back on Jewell Trail and the road walk to Crawford Trailhead (because the forecast was for rain and fog) and as I walked down Clinton Road in a torrential downpour I could look West and see sunny skies and mountain views as I got soaked. That is not a sudden storm to me. That is just local variation. The potential for that weather was in the forecast. A sudden storm in my book is I'm out on a day where the forecast is for clouds and sun and I get hammered with 2 inches of rainfall and high winds. That just doesn't happen very often nowadays with the forecasting technology we have now. Not impossible no doubt but highly unlikely.

I would also add that you mentioned "small", as in short lived. To me a "storm" is significant and has a large duration of time. Not just a quick squall over a ridge. Hours and hours of "surprise" weather is not a thing in my book.

I thought my post was pretty clear, but I guess not. The mountains can generate their own weather, including pop up storms that can be short lived, yet very impactful. If someone wasn't prepared or was already in a semi challenged state, they could be quite dangerous. You can define a storm anyway you want, but using duration of, is not nearly an adequate measure to me. A storm by definition has certain components that define it, wind, precipitation, visibility or lack of, time or duration is not a component in my book. These anomalies as I would call them are unpredictable and rarely forcasted.

 

[Debarrunner]

I am just reading the article now that was posted. Thanks for posting that link. I guess that a book might not be in the works.
As mentioned by others, it seems like the weather forecast was disregarded. Sure the exact wind speeds were not predicted but it was never forecasted to be a blue bird day.

The statement that really left me scratching my head was his schedule. It seems like it was a summer schedule in winter conditions. As experienced as he is stated being, that seems a little too ambitious to me.

It is a tragedy regardless. As a parent, I cannot fathom only knowing my child for two years. There is so much life to share with him.

 

[Ear Drum]

Here is a snippet from a Union Leader story that places some of the responsibility for the accident on the weather service:

...

Thanks for sharing this. It has some details I hadn't seen elsewhere, such as that he had only 'spikes; he did try to bail, to Zealand; and had survived the night out (it says he made a call that morning).

 

[peakbagger]

Looking at the long range forecast for the next seven days, its looks like a nice stretch to go out in the backcountry. No new snow predicted, temps perfect for crust to further develop yet not warm enough for the snow pack to start rotting. With the exception that it is the month of February and may not check a box on someone list, this thread probably would not exist. It will still require checking the forecast day by day and having bail out points but a heck of lot better weather pattern.

I wonder if this is the new normal, true winter conditions is now down to a two or three weeks in January

 

[DayTrip]

I thought my post was pretty clear, but I guess not. The mountains can generate their own weather, including pop up storms that can be short lived, yet very impactful. If someone wasn't prepared or was already in a semi challenged state, they could be quite dangerous. You can define a storm anyway you want, but using duration of, is not nearly an adequate measure to me. A storm by definition has certain components that define it, wind, precipitation, visibility or lack of, time or duration is not a component in my book. These anomalies as I would call them are unpredictable and rarely forcasted.

I get what you're saying. Maybe I'm just not making my point. I think of what you are describing as a rogue wave in the ocean. Can't forecast it. Never know when one might hit and it is worse than any of the other waves. But it happens when the sea is already rough and choppy. You can't rule it out when you're sailing a rough sea but it is not likely. You'd never be sitting on a calm, flat sea and then get blind sided by a rogue wave.

That is how I think of a "surprise storm" - a rogue wave on a calm ocean. It doesn't happen. But if you're out in marginal weather, maybe no worse than forecast, maybe even better, and a localized area of nasty weather hits it's hard to see that coming. No forecast can be sufficiently micro-level to predict that with much accuracy. But you should already be on some level of alert from a marginal weather forecast and the current conditions because it is possible. A nasty storm does not simply materialize instantly out of nothing, which you pointed out in your reply. There have to be elements present - which are observable - that indicate it is possible and allow us to predict changes coming, i.e. dropping temperatures, clouds building, increase in wind, etc.

Hopefully that clarifies my point. If not, then to hell with it. I tried. We should just go ahead and carry on with our lives....

 

[OldEric]

You can't compare South Col/Southeast Ridge route on Everest to any trail in White Mountains.
South Col/Southeast Ridge route is way more technical. Nobody has ever solo climbed it while solo hiking is routine in White Mountains.

The Southeast Ridge has been soloed a number of times

 

[peakbagger]

Hopefully that clarifies my point. If not, then to hell with it. I tried. We should just go ahead and carry on with our lives....

Until the next incident, since these types of events seem to be on a very slow but predictable continuous loop.

 

[skiguy]

Until the next incident, since these types of events seem to be on a very slow but predictable continuous loop.

Interesting after having observed these types of events for over fifty years how in some ways as DayTrip has alluded to already how many of the elements are so similar.

 

[Ear Drum]

This was posted to New England Trail Conditions today, from Peter C. Just sharing here to get the word out, and it pertains to the thread here.

I guess it's a rare case of, Leave the Litter.

"Note: This is not a trail report, but a posting to respond to a request from a Fish and Game Conservation Officer whom I saw at an official function this morning. During the recent tragic search and rescue mission in the area a rescue litter was left by the "Hillary Step" on the Bondcliff Trail at treeline just west of the summit of Bondcliff. PLEASE LEAVE IT THERE! The Conservation Officer was concerned that a well-meaning person might try to bring the litter back down the trail or otherwise attend to it. Fish and Game will be sending a team in later this season to bring the litter to a suitable location to stage for any future incidents in the area that might benefit from its use. Thank you!!"

from: Bondcliff (Attempt) - Lincoln Woods Trail, Bondcliff Trail - 2-1-2024 - NewEnglandTrailConditions.com

 

[sierra]

I get what you're saying. Maybe I'm just not making my point. I think of what you are describing as a rogue wave in the ocean. Can't forecast it. Never know when one might hit and it is worse than any of the other waves. But it happens when the sea is already rough and choppy. You can't rule it out when you're sailing a rough sea but it is not likely. You'd never be sitting on a calm, flat sea and then get blind sided by a rogue wave.

That is how I think of a "surprise storm" - a rogue wave on a calm ocean. It doesn't happen. But if you're out in marginal weather, maybe no worse than forecast, maybe even better, and a localized area of nasty weather hits it's hard to see that coming. No forecast can be sufficiently micro-level to predict that with much accuracy. But you should already be on some level of alert from a marginal weather forecast and the current conditions because it is possible. A nasty storm does not simply materialize instantly out of nothing, which you pointed out in your reply. There have to be elements present - which are observable - that indicate it is possible and allow us to predict changes coming, i.e. dropping temperatures, clouds building, increase in wind, etc.

Hopefully that clarifies my point. If not, then to hell with it. I tried. We should just go ahead and carry on with our lives....

If you read the Union Leader article someone previously posted, it describes what I am talking about. Regardless, we can move on from our back and forth no worse for wear. I did think about our discussion and our disconnect. I have spent arguably more time in the backcountry than most hikers, a lot more. Over my 40+ years hiking year-round, I have made my own observations and have come up with fairly sound understanding of what goes on out there. People who have, let's just say, a significant less amount of time observing the anomalies will not see such a clear picture. There is a descent chance that this point of mine will not come off as eloquent as I intend, but I don't genuinely think like most people do, a blessing and a curse.

 

[Yury]

The Southeast Ridge has been soloed a number of times

I have an impression that the only Everest solo climb was by Reinhold Messner from the north.
You can't call it a solo climb when you move together with a hundred of other climbers.

https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-have-climbed-Mount-Everest-solo

 

[sierra]

I have an impression that the only Everest solo climb was by Reinhold Messner from the north.
You can't call it a solo climb when you move together with a hundred of other climbers.

https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-have-climbed-Mount-Everest-solo

Everest has been soloed 3 times. In spite of how many people are the route, if you climb independently of them, it is considered a solo.

 

[skiguy]

Everest has been soloed 3 times. In spite of how many people are the route, if you climb independently of them, it is considered a solo.

1. Reinhold Messner 2. Steve Swenson 3. Allison Hargraves.........anyone else?

 

[dug]

1. Reinhold Messner 2. Steve Swenson 3. Allison Hargraves.........anyone else?

Goran Kropp is one, who biked from Sweden before trekking in, Roger Marshall (unconfirmed). Seems to be difficult to find a full list, but I do believe there are a couple more.

Also, what is a solo is up for debate since you can't go to Base Camp alone any longer...would that mean you weren't solo if you were with a Nepalese guide until then?

 

[Mountain Thunder]

The Southeast Ridge has been soloed a number of times

Yes it has. Looking up at my shelf at a book written by a fellow whose Sherpa got sick and he left the Col to summit and return, alone.

 

[Mac]

Without oxygen, no less.

"On 20 August 1980, Reinhold did the climb all on his own to achieve the record for first solo summit of Everest. It took him three days to make the ascent from his base camp at 6,500 m (21,325 ft) and he did it without the use of bottled oxygen." From Guinness Book of World Records.

 

[DayTrip]

If you read the Union Leader article someone previously posted, it describes what I am talking about. Regardless, we can move on from our back and forth no worse for wear. I did think about our discussion and our disconnect. I have spent arguably more time in the backcountry than most hikers, a lot more. Over my 40+ years hiking year-round, I have made my own observations and have come up with fairly sound understanding of what goes on out there. People who have, let's just say, a significant less amount of time observing the anomalies will not see such a clear picture. There is a descent chance that this point of mine will not come off as eloquent as I intend, but I don't genuinely think like most people do, a blessing and a curse.

Those wacky micro-weather issues can be quite bizarre. Two Summers ago I watched the weirdest thunderstorm I have ever seen while traveling the Crawford Path between Lakes Of The Clouds And Pierce. As I was leaving the summit of Washington I could hear and see thunder and lightning in the area of Crawford Notch. I was a bit concerned because that was where I had parked and was heading. It was relatively nice where I was but the dark clouds were coming.

It seemed to be moving pretty slowly so I continued as planned. I went around Monroe vs summiting it again to be safe. As I was coming down the lawn between Monroe and Eisenhower it was clear the weather was coming right at me. So I stopped in a low spot to get a better look at what it was doing. And that is when I realized how small it was. I mean SMALL. The entire area of the "storm" would not have been able to cover a football stadium, maybe just the actual field, and it was moving absurdly slowly. But it had rain, thunder and lightning. I wound up just sitting there and watching it slowly glide by me as it went up the valley just North of me heading toward the Northern Presi's. It looked like it was being sustained by the updraft out of the valley toward the shoulder of Clay and Jefferson. It literally took about 30 minutes to cover the distance from Pierce to Clay. Was really cool and bizarre.

Photo attached. That rain in center is literally the whole storm. It had circling winds, thunder, rain and an occasional flash that lasted the whole time I watched it. Nature is cool.

 

[Yury]

Also, what is a solo is up for debate since you can't go to Base Camp alone any longer...would that mean you weren't solo if you were with a Nepalese guide until then?

Reinhold Messner climbed Everest when no other climber was on that route.
Other climbers were not even present in a base camp.

For sure you can claim that you have climbed Mt. Washington solo in August disregarding other hundreds of climbers queued up on that trail.
So what?

 

[dug]

Reinhold Messner climbed Everest when no other climber was on that route.
Other climbers were not even present in a base camp.

For sure you can claim that you have climbed Mt. Washington solo in August disregarding other hundreds of climbers queued up on that trail.
So what?

I understand, but I don't make the rules, either. Unless it's outside the climbing season, it would be impossible to climb Everest via the South Col route truly solo today.

 

[maineguy]

I understand, but I don't make the rules, either. Unless it's outside the climbing season, it would be impossible to climb Everest via the South Col route truly solo today.

Solo climbing of Everest has been banned since 2017 by the govt of Nepal. I believe that solo trekking has also been banned there. I don't know about using the Chinese side.