White in NH...Presi Traverse...missing hikers

[Mike P.]

I got on the wrong trail in - of all places sleepy Giant State Park in CT. Lost may be too strong of a word, but what was supposed to be a 90 minute walk ended up almost going an extra hour & almost until dark with just a keychain light.

I haven't read every comment yet, Crawford Notch was in the clouds all day Sunday & Monday while the Presidentials were mostly clear (as seen from Cranmore) the clouds hung in the notch.

I bare booted half way up Willey until I went in to my hip just below Avalon. (I'm 6'0) Trail markings near the Willey Summit were around knee height.

 

[The Hikers]

This has been a great thread .I am sure there is a WIDE variance in navigational skills. For my part I make a map of my proposed route, I put waypoints at logical places, I program them into my GPS. Of course I have not forgotten my compass. Each of us has a cell phone.
My GPS is an older Etrax, so a little slow..but I have become familiar with its quirks. I know if I make a waypoint on the roof of my car before I leave, and then check it out in the same place when I return, it could say "60 feet to go"
I know how to follow a bearing on the compass and come out closer than that most times.
But, anyway between all of this there is route selection and personal experience. So we head out and hope for the best.

 

[Neil]

So we head out and hope for the best.

I don't hope. I plan.

Just kidding. Couldn't resist.

 

[sierra]

which way to go

I stand by my post and at the same time will conceed that the entrance to the ammou might have been very hard to find. BUT, I would not have spent the time evaluating the descent into the dry river and never would have leaned that way as an escape route. Quite frankly, I would rather bushwack down the western slope before following the dry river route. The main reasons for this are simple, the potential river crossings on top of the conditions of the trail and the ability to follow it for that matter.
I have well over 100 ascents of the rock pile and have been in horrible conditions, yes sometimes you stray much before finding your way, no doubt about that, but in those kinds of conditions, you set your bearings in a general direction and waunder down until your there, its that simple.

 

[Dr. Dasypodidae]

I stand by my post and at the same time will conceed that the entrance to the ammou might have been very hard to find. BUT, I would not have spent the time evaluating the descent into the dry river and never would have leaned that way as an escape route. Quite frankly, I would rather bushwack down the western slope before following the dry river route. The main reasons for this are simple, the potential river crossings on top of the conditions of the trail and the ability to follow it for that matter.
I have well over 100 ascents of the rock pile and have been in horrible conditions, yes sometimes you stray much before finding your way, no doubt about that, but in those kinds of conditions, you set your bearings in a general direction and waunder down until your there, its that simple.

Finally, a voice of reason! I salute you!!

Dropping into Dry River from the southern Presi's is like dropping into Lincoln Brook from Franconia Ridge, that is too long a way out.

 

[bobandgeri]

sierra - completely agree - we would do the same, but we know the area and the posibble escape routes.

Without talking to the pair we will never know what made them decide to go down the way they did, but I will guess that it was due to lack of local knowledge. They had a ride waiting at the Highland Center - they had the right gear - on a map it looks like a valid way to stay out of the wind - wind would be at your back until you got into the lee of Monroe.

If they spent two nights at the hut, I wonder if there may have been hikers who came up the Ammo trail and went past the hut. Many are not aware of the emergency shelter that is there.

I wouldn't take too much of what was in the paper as gospel - both Geri and I have been interviewed in the past for newspapers and tv news, and know firsthand how what is reported is not always what was said. (disclaimer here that VFTT has a couple of members that are reporteers and are known to do an excellent job!)

Bottom line is they are safe and we all got to think about what we would do to not get into the same situation and what we'd do if we did.

 

[dug]

If you haven't been in the Dry River valley, on paper it may seem 'OK'. After you get past the headwall for Oakes Gulf, you are following a rather mellow river valley. Sure, there are some awful stream crossings and without much traffic, the chances you are breaking trail are good.

However, with little or no knowledge of the area and by looking at the map, you slice into a valley and follow river straight to safety. "They" always tell you if you are lost to find a river and follow it out. If you can't walk into the wind, then taking their tact is at least logical. I personally wouldn't have done it, but on that day I was home battling a massive hangover and was in no condition to be on any ridge, so I couldn't vouch for what they were going through

Edited: Bob and/or Geri beat me to it

 

[AndyF]

I hiked Monroe on Wednesday and went down Ammo Tr. At points above treeline the trail was not always clear and tracks could be seen going in different directions, but none ever got very far off course for very long.

If I was at LOC Hut, and needed to get down, and I couldn't recognize the way down or whiteout obscured visibility I would head generally north east. I'd either hit a stream bed which I could follow to Ammo River or I'd hit the cog railway. Both would take me to Marshfield Station. Without a compass it would be hard to not hit the cog, the Ammo River, Base Rd, or Mt. Clinton Rd.

 

[DougPaul]

If you haven't been in the Dry River valley, on paper it may seem 'OK'. After you get past the headwall for Oakes Gulf, you are following a rather mellow river valley. Sure, there are some awful stream crossings and without much traffic, the chances you are breaking trail are good.

I have hiked in the Dry River valley in winter (back when the bridge was intact)--we went up the Dry River Tr from 302 and part way up the Isolation trail (our objective was Isolation) before turning back. This was a 3-day trip.

We saw no marks in the snow indicating that anyone else had been in there. We were able to stay on the trail with some trail-finding difficulty. However accessing the DRT from the S Prezzies requires crossing the river. (I don't know how hard it would be to stay on the west side.) The river flow was impressive--I wouldn't want to even think of attempting to cross it in the conditions that we observed.

Not my idea of a good escape route--definitely a last resort only.

Doug

 

[dug]

I have hiked in the Dry River valley in winter (back when the bridge was intact)--we went up the Dry River Tr from 302 and part way up the Isolation trail (our objective was Isolation) before turning back. This was a 3-day trip.

We saw no marks in the snow indicating that anyone else had been in there. We were able to stay on the trail with some trail-finding difficulty. However accessing the DRT from the S Prezzies requires crossing the river. (I don't know how hard it would be to stay on the west side.) The river flow was impressive--I wouldn't want to even think of attempting to cross it in the conditions that we observed.

Not my idea of a good escape route--definitely a last resort only.

Doug

I don't disagree with anything you have said, but if you look at a satellite view of the area, you'll see a river drainage or a few miles of exposure, after being beat on for two days, you'd probably take the drainage. Especially when considering a very real scenario when they can't find the Ammo trailhead, and even if they did, they'd face the possibility of a walk just as far (and into the wind) to help that would still leave them miles from their end destination. I would. There is still lots of literature that could lead one to believe the Cog Access road is unplowed and impassable. Same with Mt. Clinton Road. So, if you have to walk out 8 miles for help, you could go dead west, south for miles over an exposed ridge, or drop into a valley. I know what I'd take.

Once they got below the wind, and probably saw little or no foot traffic, their decision would be to back climb up into the hell-hole they just left, or to follow the river to a known entity...a road.

I don't think isn't in agreement that Ammo was the right route knowing what we know. As Bobandgeri mentioned, if they had people waiting at the Highland Center, their instinct may be to continue in that direction since there was a river that would take you close to there.

They made the wrong choice, but I can absolutely understand why they did what they did, and if I wasn't familiar to an area and was in their position, there's more than a 50-50 chance I'd end up doing what they did.

 

[DougPaul]

I don't disagree with anything you have said, but if you look at a satellite view of the area, you'll see a river drainage or a few miles of exposure, after being beat on for two days, you'd probably take the drainage. Especially when considering a very real scenario when they can't find the Ammo trailhead, and even if they did, they'd face the possibility of a walk just as far (and into the wind) to help that would still leave them miles from their end destination. I would. There is still lots of literature that could lead one to believe the Cog Access road is unplowed and impassable. Same with Mt. Clinton Road. So, if you have to walk out 8 miles for help, you could go dead west, south for miles over an exposed ridge, or drop into a valley. I know what I'd take.

We should note that both sides are drainages.

We don't know what they did and didn't know. However, it is my understanding that Mt. Clinton Rd is snowmobiled and Base Rd is plowed--a number of recent trip reports show that one can drive to the Cog RR station. And there is also the Bretton Woods XC ski area--if they found a ski trail it would also be a relatively easy walk out. (IIRC, at least one of the ski trails goes very close to Mt Clinton Rd and they cross Base Rd.)

Once they got below the wind, and probably saw little or no foot traffic, their decision would be to back climb up into the hell-hole they just left, or to follow the river to a known entity...a road.

My guess is that once one gets off the ridge on either side and into the protection of the trees, most people would avoid going back up onto the ridge, even if one had to bushwack or search for the trail.

They made the wrong choice, but I can absolutely understand why they did what they did, and if I wasn't familiar to an area and was in their position, there's more than a 50-50 chance I'd end up doing what they did.

When we hiked the Dry River Tr, trail breaking was quite easy until we reached the Isolation Tr and we didn't reach the junction on the first day. Given current snow conditions (much deeper than when we were there), I expect that it could take 2 or more days to get out via the Dry River Valley.

Doug

 

[jn316]

To those not familiar with the area, a glance at the map can make the Dry River Trail look like a viable alternative to the Crawford Path (especially if you don't look carefully at those pesky contour lines). I know of a number of hikers who have made that hasty decision. Last summer I was sitting on a rock by the larger lake, near the place where the Dry River Trail climbs from the hut, over the ridge, then down into Oakes. A man and his 10-year-old son walked slowly by, looking a little confused. Since it was about 2 in the afternoon I at first thought they were staying at Lakes of the Clouds, just looking around. Instead, they were staying at Mizpah, had come up to Lakes of the Clouds for lunch, were heading back to Mizpah for dinner. He showed me on his photo-copied map how he planned to take a "similar-but-different" route back to Mizpah: down Dry River Trail and back up the Dry River Cut-off to Mizpah. Yep, on the map it looked real close to the Crawford route. I gently talked him into re-tracing his steps on the Crawford Path, where, I said, the views certainly warranted a second look. I think the boy escaped a very bad afternoon..or night.
A similar plan might have looked good to the couple hunkering down in the dungeon.

 

[dug]

We don't know what they did and didn't know. However, it is my understanding that Mt. Clinton Rd is snowmobiled and Base Rd is plowed--a number of recent trip reports show that one can drive to the Cog RR station. And there is also the Bretton Woods XC ski area--if they found a ski trail it would also be a relatively easy walk out. (IIRC, at least one of the ski trails goes very close to Mt Clinton Rd and they cross Base Rd.)

I think we are still on the same page overall. I would point out that while I agree Mt. Clinton Rd. and Cog RR access are better routes, if you read something that says that are closed in the winter, then they wouldn't be good routes. Again, there is lots of old literature that says it's close.

 

[lattinhill]

We had a similar thing happen , also at Lakes. We were having lunch inside the hut before going up to Monroe, and watched a young fellow going from person to person with a map. He finally stopped at us, spread his map out and asked our opinion on what was the best way to " head north " . He thought that he'd maybe go "over" to PNVC and then back "over" to Washington on his way north . I tryed to explain to him that there was a whole lot "down" and then "up" if he wanted to do it this way, but he seemed not to comprehend what countour lines meant .

Dave

 

[jn316]

I think we are still on the same page overall. I would point out that while I agree Mt. Clinton Rd. and Cog RR access are better routes, if you read something that says that are closed in the winter, then they wouldn't be good routes. Again, there is lots of old literature that says it's close.

It's only (relatively) recently that there were any viable options for access or escape on the west side of Washington. In my early years of winter hiking there was no communication from the Base Station, the roads to it were never plowed, the Crawford House was closed in winter (or burned). I don't know if there was anything open at Bretton Woods....there really wasn't much activity between Twin Mt. and Bartlett. If you were hiking or skiing on the west side of Washington, you had to be sure to get back over to the east side to descend. It's nice to have the western routes open now.

 

[Dr. Dasypodidae]

It's only (relatively) recently that there were any viable options for access or escape on the west side of Washington. In my early years of winter hiking there was no communication from the Base Station, the roads to it were never plowed, the Crawford House was closed in winter (or burned). I don't know if there was anything open at Bretton Woods....there really wasn't much activity between Twin Mt. and Bartlett. If you were hiking or skiing on the west side of Washington, you had to be sure to get back over to the east side to descend. It's nice to have the western routes open now.

Depends what you mean by "relatively," I guess. Since the late 1960s, the Mount Clinton Road has been well packed out by sno mo traffic, with the exception of a few winters in the late 1990s when it was plowed after the fire at the Cog Base Station. On our night traverse of the Presi's in January 1972, we could see the sno mo headlights here and there and some times hear their engines all the way from Rt. 302 to the Cog Base Road (no Highland Center then, just a shuttered Crawford House, soon to burn), where the headlights disappeared into the thick woods of the Mount Jefferson Road.

But, I think that the main point to be made is that if they did not know about the best escape routes before beginning such a winter traverse, they should have. There is certainly no excuse for not researching escape routes from the Presi's given all of the resources available in this day and age. Would anyone tackle Mt. Hood, Rainier, Denali, or Everest without doing serious research first? The weather in winter on the Presi's can be worse than found in all of those places.

 

[JohnL]

But, I think that the main point to be made is that if they did not know about the best escape routes before beginning such a winter traverse, they should have. There is certainly no excuse for not researching escape routes from the Presi's given all of the resources available in this day and age.

First of all your statement in and of itself is a correct statement. However since you don’t know what the couple knew or didn’t know, your statement is irrelevant to the discussion and unfortunately implies to the uninitiated reader that the couple did not research the route simply because they did not take the route you think they should have taken. Secondly, perhaps the couple from Canada got their information from a place that you had suggested, chauvinguides.com, whose web site says: “…Lakes of the Clouds Hut you will have to head down westward to the Cog Railway Base at Marshfield Station and walk out the unplowed road to Route 302.” Perhaps that out of date and incorrect information is another reason why they opted to go into the Dry River drainage.

…. I would head generally north east. I'd either hit a stream bed which I could follow to Ammo River or I'd hit the cog railway. Both would take me to Marshfield Station. Without a compass it would be hard to not hit the cog, the Ammo River, Base Rd, or Mt. Clinton Rd.

By the time you ‘hit’ any of these landmarks, you would have fallen headfirst over a half dozen ledges and frozen waterfalls that you would not have been able to discern in the 75mph winds blowing thick frozen fog into your face, caking up your goggles and disorienting you. Those were the whiteout conditions that were present on Feb 14.

Not my idea of a good escape route--definitely a last resort only.

And since when has a last resort by definition become a bad choice? By definition, the last resort is the least desirable of all possible viable options, after rejecting or trying all those other options. “A final expedient or recourse to achieve some end or settle a difficulty.” It is not by definition a wrong decision. It is the last viable option remaining. Consider their other options (in no particular order):
Continuing down the Crawford Path – Not Good
Going back up Mt Washington – Not Good
Ammo Trail – according to Lt Doug Gralenski of NHF&G, “but they were looking for ways to get out and searched around for some trailheads with no success." Already tried and rejected.
Stay put – they tried that for three days and they exhausted their fuel. So without water they would get weaker and more dehydrated and thus, more prone to hypothermia. They had no way to know how long the storm would last. For three nights this option did not work. It was time to move on.
Dry River Valley – not optimum but under the circumstances, viable, safe and necessary.

If the weather conditions are too bad to follow a compass bearing into the wind, best to stay put, even without food and fuel, especially if you have bivi sacks and sleeping bags.

Which is exactly what the couple did for three nights (Wed-Thu-Fri). At that point they were out of fuel, low on food or depleted (they were carrying 3 to 4 days of food based upon their friend’s comments), probably getting dehydrated (leading to hypothermia) and needed to get moving. Your own words imply that there are weather conditions where you could not follow a compass bearing yet you insist that they should have tried to do so anyway. After 3 days of following this advice, they found a better solution.

Dropping into Dry River from the southern Presi's is like dropping into Lincoln Brook from Franconia Ridge, that is too long a way out.

Long, true, but it’s probably a hell of a lot safer than dropping into Walker Ravine or wandering off the northwest side of Mt Lafayette under like circumstances.


Here are a couple quotes from Fish and Game Lt. Doug Gralenski to reconsider:

"If we didn't do anything, they would have come out this evening on their own,"

"They did everything right," he said. "They just ran into bad weather."

JohnL