A Real Corker Coming This Week?

From the NWS Forecast discussion this afternoon, Saturday, Dec. 5. (This time, I think the "all caps" text might warrant that treatment, for once):

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROF SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AND APPROACH NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS INCLUDING A 130+ KT JET AND -30 DEGREES C
AT 500MB WILL HELP INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL LIKELY FALL
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE
REGION WITH MODELS INDICATING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES.

Wow, I better dig out my avy beacon to make it across the driveway....

On the ground now is 1 new inch; snowing lightly.

It's so bad now we're excited for 2-3 inches?

(*I'm excited too)

I think that means 2 or 3 inches of water ... if so that adds up to a hell of a lot of snow

Right now, the long term models are predicteding a track just to the west of New England, which would mean rain or ice, unless there is a coastal redevelopement. But look at tonights snow, which as of Thursday evening was supposed to stay offshore, and I have 3"+ in my yard.

About two inches fell up high today as we were hiking Adams.

We *really* need a huge dump to set the trails up for winter.

Things are pretty sloppy out there, I had snow/mud/leaf-balls sticking to the bottoms of my microspikes!

Heck, Its snowing in Cape May NJ right now!

Folks, if you had paid attention to my "Chicken Little/Peter and the Wolf" prognostications earlier this fall, you would know that QPF is a measure of precipitation reduced to its LIQUID equivalent. Snow can often fall at a rate of 10:1 in relation to its liquid equivalent. So yeah, 2-3 inches of QPF is a big deal when the associated forecast thinks indicates that precipitation is going to fall as snow.

I'm crossing my fingers it comes in liquid, not crystal form.

Brian

Well.. Yes it is a big storm, but there are issues with it. First, models are having trouble figuring out which low they want to be the primary low since it will have several centers. Right now they are favoring the western low over the Great lakes which is bad, it would mean snow to sleet and even rain over coastal areas. This could certainly change, but right now expect heavy snow to sleet at least and even some freezing rain possible. Behind this storm Wednesday, very cold air blows in. The reason this will be such a big deal though is because it is going to drop sig snow from California to Maine, it will basically bring most of the county into Winter that isn't yet, outside of the south.

-Mattl

Mohamed Ellozy said:

I think that means 2 or 3 inches of water ... if so that adds up to a hell of a lot of snow

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That would make more sense!

Have no faith..........

Ever since I purchase my first motocycle I haven't believed any weathermen!
That first year I had my first cycle , a Kawasaki 450 twin, I got up every morning and listened to the weatherman to see if I should take my raincoat.... and boy did I get wet that first year. They never got it exactly right. After that I would look out my window and if it look like rain I would take the rain gear. Never got wet again.... I road the bike as many months a year as possible, even in the snow. Now 20 years later the weathermen are no better. It seems as though some of them get a kick out of telling us that there will be bad weather next weekend. Helll they still can't get 24 forcast correct only about 50% of the time so I shoud believe them 7 days in the future? Especially here in New England!!!!
Happy Hiking

It looks like snow changing to rain Wednesday except in isolated higher mountain areas, possibly Franconia.

http://www.eotsweb.org/forecasts.php

There's an outside chance that an elevated avalanche hazard could exist on Thursday -- Friday. NWS thinks there could be banding of heavy snow from north of Concord northeastward to Fryeburg and north of Augusta and Waterville, ME, followed by the rain. This could overwhelm any bonds holding stuff together on slopes in the aftermath. The avy aspect to this event is JMHO, of course, not a forecast from the feds. (And you get a lollipop for noticing the pun in that last sentence, el-bagr and the rest of you thrill-seekers. )

una_dogger said:

Things are pretty sloppy out there, I had snow/mud/leaf-balls sticking to the bottoms of my microspikes!

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Ok...so...Liberty Springs STINKING on Sunday isn't just becuase it's not a very good trail then? It's the..."just that time of year"...right? I certainly hope so...what a MESS!

Haven't commented on a New Eng snowfall in awhile...

...so I'll do my best. We have winter storm watches just west of DC for snow and an extended period of freezing rain when this storm comes in. The cold air will be at the lowest levels of the atmosphere, and that originates up in the northeast and Canada. There will be significant warming at mid levels of the atmosphere, and eventually, as with most El Nino year storms, it will win out, and change the snow over to sleet in the mtns, and prb freezing rain south, then rain at the coast. But there could be a pretty significant hit with heavy snow before the changeover to sleet, most places in the mtns could see 6 inches or more. Even southern NH, northern MA could see a thumping of snow before the changeover.

Then, upslope kicks in.

grouseking said:

...so I'll do my best. We have winter storm watches just west of DC for snow and an extended period of freezing rain when this storm comes in.

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Sounds a lot like the mess we had almost exactly 1 year ago. I hope we don't get a repeat!

grouseking said:

Then, upslope kicks in.

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And after last year's icing event, anything upslope was near impossible to get to!

smitty77 said:

Sounds a lot like the mess we had almost exactly 1 year ago. I hope we don't get a repeat!



And after last year's icing event, anything upslope was near impossible to get to!

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I don't foresee as significant of an ice storm anywhere up and down the east coast. This storm will be moving far too fast for that. Plus, the criteria for winter storm warning down here is 1/4 inch of ice, and I think its 1/2 inch of ice or more up in New England.

Latest shows a warmer solution with the storm forming over DC, and heading west of New England. That would bring a snow to rain scenerio, and lots of shadowing into the valleys. It is going to be a complex storm with widely varying snowfall, and rainfall amounts. Plus, there will probably be strong winds before and after the storm rolls thru, exp in the mountains. It will be interesting to see what the computer models show tomorrow.

This morning's forecasts for northern Grafton County (Franconia) range from 3-6", 4-8", to 6-12" with gusty winds. Snow shovels and candles. Lousy travel day tomorrow (Wednesday).

Sittin' fat (post-Thanksgiving), dumb (according to the winter haters), and happy (after reading the latest forecast discussion) here in SE NH. We be in the slot right now for a corker.