Fatality on Mt. Guyot

[skiguy]

Hey, feel and say what you want. IMO, she was searching for harsh conditions to get her ready for an Everest trip. Knowing you are "only" 4 miles from a road and could mirror the worst you can get, on paper, looks like a solid plan.

We want people to be as best prepared for conditions when they get there, but sometimes the only way to get prepared for them is to experience them in a more "controlled" environment.

Problem what is on paper and what is reality are two different things. If that was the case, then it is just another element of her poor planning. Suffice to say she went beyond the "controlled" environment. Again, as I and others have already mentioned most of her experience was with guides who made a lot of the critical decisions for her. Going Solo combined with making solo decisions in those conditions combine with all the other poor decisions she made just exemplifies the cacophony of errors that lead to her demise. Personally, having climbed at altitude both guided and unguided I can definitely tell you the day that she was out would have been a hunker down day. Suggesting her line of thinking was rational in anyway under the situation is in itself not based in reality and potentially only a glorification of what was an obviously toxic situation. Four miles is a long way in those conditions. To put it into perspective the distance from The South Col to the summit of Everest is 1.07 miles. Plenty of climbers get into lots of trouble over that distance by making the same mistakes Kate M. made.

 

[dug]

Problem what is on paper and what is reality are two different things. If that was the case, then it is just another element of her poor planning. Suffice to say she went beyond the "controlled" environment. Again, as I and others have already mentioned most of her experience was with guides who made a lot of the critical decisions for her. Going Solo in those conditions along with all the other poor decisions she made just exemplifies the cacophony of errors that lead to her demise. Personally, having climbed at altitude both guided and unguided I can definitely tell you the day that she was out would have been a hunker down day. Suggesting her line of thinking was rational in anyway under the situation is in itself not based in reality and potentially only a glorification of what was an obviously toxic situation. Four miles is a long way in those conditions. To put it into perspective the distance from The South Col to the summit of Everest is 1.07 miles. Plenty of climbers get into lots of trouble over that distance by making the same mistakes Kate M. made.

I think I've made it clear I am not defending her...at least I thought I have.

However, I will maintain and always will that I understand her line of thinking. Understanding it, and agreeing with it, can be totally different. Someone could ask "why would anyone do XYZ?" That is the answer. We don't have to agree with it, but how can we possibly begin to question someone without trying to understand their thought process?

My athletic training was way worse than a game condition. I would typically run 5-8 miles during a game, yet I would need to train doing twice that. We wouldn't play in snow, but I'd still have to train in it. I wouldn't play wearing a weighted belt, but I would train with one. It's the same line of thinking - and, yes, different circumstances, but I hope we don't start to put "Lines of Reasonableness" on things, which will always be subjective and fluctuate due to our own views on what is uncomfortable. There are entire books written about learning to live outside your comfort zone.

It's actually the norm to go beyond what the "day of" expectation is so you know you can handle it. That is the line of thinking here (my assumption).

 

[skiguy]

I think I've made it clear I am not defending her...at least I thought I have.

However, I will maintain and always will that I understand her line of thinking. Understanding it, and agreeing with it, can be totally different. Someone could ask "why would anyone do XYZ?" That is the answer. We don't have to agree with it, but how can we possibly begin to question someone without trying to understand their thought process?

My athletic training was way worse than a game condition. I would typically run 5-8 miles during a game, yet I would need to train doing twice that. We wouldn't play in snow, but I'd still have to train in it. I wouldn't play wearing a weighted belt, but I would train with one. It's the same line of thinking - and, yes, different circumstances, but I hope we don't start to put "Lines of Reasonableness" on things, which will always be subjective and fluctuate due to our own views on what is uncomfortable. There are entire books written about learning to live outside your comfort zone.

It's actually the norm to go beyond what the "day of" expectation is so you know you can handle it. That is the line of thinking here (my assumption).

Going out on a limb is totally reasonable but going too far out on that limb is another thing. It is a delicate dance as if you go too far that limb will break and you won't return. Training within what is reasonable and applicable is what is critical to be prepared for a successful end goal. To encapsulate and understand her line of thinking is just that. To think that line of thinking was rational is another. To think it was the norm is where I disagree with you.

 

[dug]

Going out on a limb is totally reasonable but going too far out on that limb is another thing. It is a delicate dance as if you go too far that limb will break and you won't return. Training within what is reasonable and applicable is what is critical to be prepared for a successful end goal. To encapsulate and understand her line of thinking is just that. To think that line of thinking was rational is another. To think it was the norm is where I disagree with you.

OK to disagree.

I think her line of thinking was rational. It was just misapplied with the circumstances.

 

[sierra]

This is another one of my favorite things you see in rescue and other articles. There is no such thing as a "sudden storm" nowadays with all the technology available, especially for a day hike. A "sudden storm" is something that happens when you don't pay attention to the weather and aren't aware of what is forecast and what that means for trail conditions.

Respectfully disagree. I've seen freak storms, even if small and isolated overtake parts of the mountains. I've seen them from the valley over take ridgelines and could tell that they were fast moving and brutal.

 

[skiguy]

OK to disagree.

I think her line of thinking was rational. It was just misapplied with the circumstances.

IMO that is a reach and is not consistent with the circumstances in Kate M.'s death. Where is there a connection of being rational in that situation and misapplying?
Rational thinking is defined as thinking that is consistent with known facts. Irrational thinking is thinking that is inconsistent with (or unsupported by) known facts.

 

[KRooney]

These are the opening paragraphs of an AMC Appalachia article they wrote about Kate Matrosova. It's worth the read, even if it doesn't include the entire article.

Too Cold: : The Death of Kate Matrosova​

 

[dug]

IMO that is a reach and is not consistent with the circumstances in Kate M.'s death. Where is there a connection of being rational in that situation and misapplying?
Rational thinking is defined as thinking that is consistent with known facts. Irrational thinking is thinking that is inconsistent with (or unsupported by) known facts.

OK, so going out in potentially 100mph winds is irrational.

90?

80?

70?

60?

50?

40?

30?

20?

10?

Same for all? Is it wet? What if you are going for a walk to the mailbox? Around the yard? The neighborhood? The town? Are you fit? How are you defining fit? What is your goal of the walk? You are putting your Line of Reasonableness at X, maybe I put it at Y. Because I have a different view of understanding what someone is trying to do and made a (to her) a rational decision. You, others, can't consider it irrational. Again, in her view (assumptions here) this was a good opportunity to "test herself" before going for it. I can view her thought process. You, others, don't. That's OK. The "The View"-like exasperation is puzzling to me.

Rationally, I knew my skiing abilities and experience, and felt I could ski the Gulf of Slides the first time I went there, based on what I've researched and been told. Then, I got there, realized I was in over my head. Was I irrational for even trying it? I don't think so. Was I shortsighted and naïve? Yes

There is a large chunk of the population, I'd say upwards of 70%, who consider doing ANYTHING any of us on this board do as irrational.

 

[iAmKrzys]

Last thing I knew the helicopter based drones had the same weather limitations as a manned helicopter that made three attempts. The commercial drones I have seen (admittedly not a big selection) tend to be rated for 20 MPH max winds. My guess is a helicopter with a skilled pilot probably has a wider operating range?

I asked my son who is better versed on drones than I am, and he mentioned Autel Robotics Dragonfish - Volatus Drones Enterprise Solutions that as I understand it can take off vertically but then fly "flat" thus acquiring higher speed. I don't know if this is fast enough to overcome winds over Mt. Guyot but certainly something in the right direction.

 

[peakbagger]

I asked my son who is better versed on drones than I am, and he mentioned Autel Robotics Dragonfish - Volatus Drones Enterprise Solutions that as I understand it can take off vertically but then fly "flat" thus acquiring higher speed. I don't know if this is fast enough to overcome winds over Mt. Guyot but certainly something in the right direction.

I dont think the wind speed is the limiting factor, its the ground turbulence and terrain influence.. If you look at wind tunnel simulation of wind encountering a rough surface the wind will try to "stick" to the ground and then release and in some cases go backwards. Best example in more 2 d setting is rapids in the river, the river is flowing one way but in areas the water will eddy and travel backup river, it can be stable in a river but in a wind event the wind speed and direction is always changing so the lift required to hover needs to change. One minute the drone is being pushed up and the next second its being pushed down.

Anyone out on ridgeline has probably experienced leaning into the wind one moment and needing to catch themselves when the wind nearly instantly swtiches directions or stops and that is the big issue with drones or helicopters.

 

[Yury]

To put it into perspective the distance from The South Col to the summit of Everest is 1.07 miles.

You can't compare South Col/Southeast Ridge route on Everest to any trail in White Mountains.
South Col/Southeast Ridge route is way more technical. Nobody has ever solo climbed it while solo hiking is routine in White Mountains.

 

[peakbagger]

With respect to big mountain training

A local well known climbing guide that used to be on call on the big alpine rescues in the area ran guided training sessions for folks who wanted to the do the "big mountains". It was a 3 day presi traverse. He had a full time gig in the area at a ski area but guiding was his thing. I remember asking him once about how the past winter was for guiding. He had three of these training runs scheduled yet had to cancel everyone of them due to extreme weather conditions. Even he had voluntary limits. He was credited at one point later on for a "save" during dangerous and degrading conditions where the S&R crew was supposed to be heading down (this was after the Hass and Derk Tinkham when F&G reportedly put in place more strict response protocols on acceptable conditions for a rescue) and he convinced them to check on one last possible route before heading out and found a nearly frozen hiker who survived. No doubt his decades of experience made the difference but even he had voluntary limits.

If someone wanted to test their limits, there were other ways of doing so in place of heading out solo in abysmal conditions.

 

[rocket21]

If there was crust with a couple of inches of powder on top, then snowshoes were not really needed and that would be reflected by a faster trail speed.

It's rare that we have a crust to support bareboots off-trail. It can only take a couple of inches of snow and a little bit of wind to completely obscure an existing packed footbed. Said hypothetical crust can make it even more laborious barebooting off a packed footbed.

Snowshoes are essential equipment when venturing above treeline in winter because they provide the option to bail without a packed trail should the weather/conditions unexpectedly deteriorate.

I really hope folks can learn from this horrible event so that it never happens again.

 

[NH2112]

I don't agree with this. I've broken out the stretch between Guyot and Zealand (in both directions, during times in which the Zealand summit sign is at or below the snowpack) with standard Tubbs Flex Alps snowshoes. It is a workout, but completely doable.

The problem here is in Roma’s case he might not have had the energy for that kind of a workout. Going light with 25” snowshoes on your pack might save you 2-3lb over larger ones suitable for deep snow, but is carrying a near-useless 3lb better than a very useful 6lb?

When these 3 pics were taken (about 5 years ago) I weighed around 270lb. In the first pic I was wearing 8x30 mountaineering snowshoes while going up a local mountain off-trail in 4-5 feet of snow and sinking to mid-shin most of the time. The 2nd and 3rd pics were taken a week or 2 later in the same general area. I was using 10x36 snowshoes, my trekking pole is extended to its max length of 150cm and pushed in until the tip touched solid ground. This time I was sinking maybe 6-8” tops, the extra 50% or so of surface area really made a difference. Yeah, they’re harder to carry with their greater length and width but so worth it for how much easier they make it.

I also have a pair of 12x42 snowshoes for heavier loads or softer snow, I’ve used them at about 320lb all-up weight and sank to about boot-top.

One difference, and it could be a big one, is that I always start off wearing snowshoes because I’m not going to be anywhere with a packed trail. The closest I’ve been in the past few years were snowmobile tracks and wind-packed snow, but on both of those you could barely leave tracks with one step and sink on the next so the snowshoes stay on.

 

[skiguy]

OK, so going out in potentially 100mph winds is irrational.

90?

80?

70?

60?

50?

40?

30?

20?

10?

Same for all? Is it wet? What if you are going for a walk to the mailbox? Around the yard? The neighborhood? The town? Are you fit? How are you defining fit? What is your goal of the walk? You are putting your Line of Reasonableness at X, maybe I put it at Y. Because I have a different view of understanding what someone is trying to do and made a (to her) a rational decision. You, others, can't consider it irrational. Again, in her view (assumptions here) this was a good opportunity to "test herself" before going for it. I can view her thought process. You, others, don't. That's OK. The "The View"-like exasperation is puzzling to me.

Rationally, I knew my skiing abilities and experience, and felt I could ski the Gulf of Slides the first time I went there, based on what I've researched and been told. Then, I got there, realized I was in over my head. Was I irrational for even trying it? I don't think so. Was I shortsighted and naïve? Yes

There is a large chunk of the population, I'd say upwards of 70%, who consider doing ANYTHING any of us on this board do as irrational.

I get your passion. You can play that game. But you need to know when to call them or fold them if you want to get out alive.

 

[rocket21]

The problem here is in Roma’s case he might not have had the energy for that kind of a workout. Going light with 25” snowshoes on your pack might save you 2-3lb over larger ones suitable for deep snow, but is carrying a near-useless 3lb better than a very useful 6lb?

Even a pair of Dion running snowshoes could have made a huge difference. The ones I sometimes use (I prefer a larger snowshoe on high peaks) weigh 2.3 pounds and provide flotation.

From the true summit of Guyot, it's downhill to the Zealand col, then roughly three uphill pushes to get to that final downhill to the hut. From the south summit of Guyot, it's downhill to the Guyot shelter. All much more attainable with flotation than without.

 

[dug]

I get your passion. You can play that game. But you need to know when to call them or fold them if you want to get out alive.

And, as mentioned, I agree with that. Only stipulating I can understand her thought process.

I'm actually a bit flabbergasted that's not understood.

 

[Mac]

These are the opening paragraphs of an AMC Appalachia article they wrote about Kate Matrosova. It's worth the read, even if it doesn't include the entire article.

Too Cold: : The Death of Kate Matrosova​

Excerpt from article, MW forecast, Feb 15, 2015: Temperatures will be falling today, reaching – 35 degrees F (–37 degrees C) on the summit overnight. During this time, wind speeds will be rising quickly up to the 100 mph (161 kph) mark, with gusts possibly reaching 125 mph (201 kph).

I was visiting Pinkham Notch that weekend. Went home one day early, mostly due to reading this forecast that morning.

 

[skiguy]

You can't compare South Col/Southeast Ridge route on Everest to any trail in White Mountains.
South Col/Southeast Ridge route is way more technical. Nobody has ever solo climbed it while solo hiking is routine in White Mountains.

I agree with you. I was trying to relate a level of relativeness not a direct comparison.

 

[DayTrip]

Respectfully disagree. I've seen freak storms, even if small and isolated overtake parts of the mountains. I've seen them from the valley over take ridgelines and could tell that they were fast moving and brutal.

When you say this, do you mean you were out on a day with no poor weather in the forecast and you saw a storm? Or do you mean you've seen isolated areas get much worse weather than the overall area? That is different to me. I've been out on plenty of days where I either missed or got hit by worse weather than another spot, but the potential for that weather was in the forecast. One particularly memorable one was a Southern Presi traverse I did where I came back on Jewell Trail and the road walk to Crawford Trailhead (because the forecast was for rain and fog) and as I walked down Clinton Road in a torrential downpour I could look West and see sunny skies and mountain views as I got soaked. That is not a sudden storm to me. That is just local variation. The potential for that weather was in the forecast. A sudden storm in my book is I'm out on a day where the forecast is for clouds and sun and I get hammered with 2 inches of rainfall and high winds. That just doesn't happen very often nowadays with the forecasting technology we have now. Not impossible no doubt but highly unlikely.

I would also add that you mentioned "small", as in short lived. To me a "storm" is significant and has a large duration of time. Not just a quick squall over a ridge. Hours and hours of "surprise" weather is not a thing in my book.