Large winter storm coming

[Mattl]

What a crazy weather week, temps 24-36 hours ago below 0 and now in the 50's with rain. For those of you in VT, NH, and ME, that is really going to change. These areas are already under winter weather advisories and watches for a double event. There is a major front across NY and down to the south that is moving south east currently. 50's with rain will be replaced by falling temperatures this afternoon/evening changing to wet snow. Across the north and west, 2-5 inches will fall this evening. Then there is a lull tomorrow until a major gulf storm takes shape and rides up the coast into the Gulf of Maine. By then, the front seperating below freezing air is sitting east of the area as the storm rides up. There will be an area of sig ice and sleet, and that is tough to predict, I think it will be from Concord up to Portand and east. North and west of here stand to see a large heavy snow event. They are already forecasting 6-12 inches of heavy wet snow, but if it pans out it will be more like 1-2+ feet of snow for places like the Whites. The storm will end Friday leaving it cold for several days. Keep this in mind when planning trips the next few days. -Mattl

 

[MikePS]

Thanks, I always appreciate your weather advice, it really helps for my planning. I am definately ready to move out of those mixed conditions and get a solid snowshoe base for the rest of winter, yea!!

 

[skiguy]

thanks Matt...I hope your right because it is raining pretty good right now here in the MWV. Although as you are predicting it looks like the full spectrum of precip can happen.

 

[MichaelJ]

Thanks for the tips ... I'll be watching the forecast like a hawk now.

 

[DrewKnight]

Thanks, Matt...

If you're traveling through central NH this AM, keep in mind that the temperature varies wildly. In addition to the 47-degree swing since this time yesterday, we observed the following conditions between Waterville Valley and southern NH this AM:

WV -- 1500 feet -- 47 degrees with rain and fog
Campton -- 500 feet -- 32 degrees, freezing rain, roads glazed
Plymouth-Ashland-Meredith -- Temps hovering around freezing, even 93 glazed
Sanbornton -- 33, then 34, then 35... up to 48. The temp jumped 15 degrees in under five miles.

From there south, 40s and 50s with light rain. 56 in Merrimack at 8am.

And I guess going home it will be the exact opposite. So again - if you're traveling or especially if you're hiking -- you need to be prepared for wild swings today.

 

[--M.]

==What are the base snow-cover amounts around the region now? The latest TC reports have been helpful.

==Can it be assumed that this rain will erase whatever base exists anywhere below x feet (x probably being Pressie treeline)? So will, for example, upper Pemi trails be bare before the new snow? Or are things further along?

==What trail conditions would you expect in various areas as a result of this week's activity? Are there any ski approaches that are in? At the moment, Waterville Valley is claiming that the Livermore Road is skiable (http://www.waterville.com/info/nordic/nordicconditions.asp).

Heading up on Saturday, looking like it'll be traction, not skis, but with possible blue-birds! Maybe something above the Notch.

Thanks for the good data!

--M.

 

[Mattl]

Erasing snow in the White Mountains will be highly variable, more snow will be lost potentially at high elevations then low, 3000-5000 feet because there is warmer air aloft. However, these areas have quite a bit on the ground, 1-3 feet, so it shouldn't be wiped out. Like Drew said, many valleys are stuck in the 30's probably places like Carrigain Notch and Zealand. The main killer of snow is not rain, but fog. If would be even worse if it stopped raining for 24 hours and just had fog, that would eat the snow. Out saving grace is going to be that there wont be a break in the precip, it will just transition to snow this afternoon in the Whites. Whatever gets lost will be more then made up for on the storm Thursday-Friday. The latest base snow amounts are 3 inches at some bases to a foot and over 3 feet above 3500 feet. -Mattl

 

[DrewKnight]

--M: Livermore - Tripoli were skiable until last night -- the resort had snowmoble-packed and / or groomed 24km of trails through Tuesday. The base in groomed areas was probably four to six inches. Based on HikeBikeFishSki's report from Sandwich last weekend, it might have been more than that up higher on Livermore and Tripoli Roads.

It was dark when we left this AM, but based on past performance, I would anticipate the already-thin cover probably is a bit patchy now. However -- if Matt's models hold true and we see 6" or more by Friday, I would feel pretty confident that conditions will be back to skiable by the weekend.

 

[--M.]

A hiker/skier's decision tree:

If snow: Chocorua by Champney Falls; Ethan Pond & Willey; Hancocks; Tripyramids by Livermore or Sabbaday; Carrigain Notch; like that.

If traction: No long approach; no dq pitches (like Huntington or Tri slides), so maybe Crawford Path; Osceolas, Kinsmans; Carter Bunch.

Which of these scenarios, either, or both? Seems the cover will either be thin, or glorious. It'll be a last-minute thing, I think.

 

[gaiagirl]

It isn't allowed to snow in the next few days ..... I'm in the middle of moving. Can't we just wait until Christmas. Please???

 

[weatherman]

Big ice? Big snow? The next 18 hours worth of model runs will tell. Tough call right now. Right now the middle third of New England as you go from NW to SE looks like a lot of ice and sleet for Thursday into Friday (hopefully not dangerous amounts, but possible), with more snow/sleet NW of that and a lot of rain SE. I'd test the generator if I lived in, say, a valley in Southern VT or Franklin County MA.

Sure will be nice when we finally transition consistently from fall into winter. Not yet.

Weatherman

 

[funkyfreddy]

Lots of snow in Montreal, anyone want to help me shovel some this afternoon?

 

[MadRiver]

It should be an interesting call on what to hike this weekend.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

In my 12 seasons of XC skiing at Waterville, the "magic" line is usually +/- 100 feet (vertical) from where Livermore Road / Snows join - right where going straight lands you on the Livermore Trail en route to the Tripyramids. I have often found that early or late (particularly late) if you are willing to boot it over the bare spots on Livermore, you can ski Upper Snows and Cascade Brook with good conditions. They don't get a lot of winter traffic, so those areas can be skied (even skated!) into mid or late April (late April this past year), if you can handle the wet / squishy spots. To be completely truthful here, my experience is more on the tail end of winter than the tail end of fall.

Looking at the new and cool WV trail map with topo lines that works out to be 1800-2000' with the above junction right about 1900'.

Tim

 

[grouseking]

If you believe NECN's Matt Noyes, the place to stay all snow will pick up 1-2 feet of snow (prob the mountains and foothills). Then there will be a significant ice storm in southern and central New England, away from the ocean. Then, rain at the coast.

Clearly a very difficult forecast. The first ones of the year always are.

I'm looking for a nice solid foot.

grouseking

 

[BIGEarl]

I’m not a weatherman and don’t pretend to be one.

I am a little confused by the weathermen, however. I took in weather reports on all of the local television stations during the midday reports. It almost seems they are all trying to out-sensationalize each other on the coming 48 hours.

Now, I have visited the National Weather Service, Weather.com, Wunderground.com, and Accuweather.com. These all seem to agree and predict an end to precipitation around midnight tonight and fairly mild day tomorrow in the area where I'd like to spend the day.

I’m considering a hike tomorrow but can’t decide who to believe, or perhaps trust.

What to do???

 

[rocket21]

I talked to a friend of mine a few hours ago who is a meteorologist and he said it's still unknown - could be a bunch of rain, could be a mix, could be a lot of snow (up here).

 

[BIGEarl]

I talked to a friend of mine a few hours ago who is a meteorologist and he said it's still unknown - could be a bunch of rain, could be a mix, could be a lot of snow (up here).

Interesting. Who is it and what organization is he associated with?

 

[rocket21]

Interesting. Who is it and what organization is he associated with?

It was a private conversation, so I don't think I should disclose that information here without his permission. Nonetheless, he knows his stuff. I'm in a similar boat as you - I have an invite to go somewhere up north tomorrow night, but don't want to be out on the roads if there's frozen precip coming down.

 

[--M.]

Until it shakes out a little (like when I'm on the way up on Saturday), it seems you're going to have to be prepared for anything. I'm pretty skeptical at this point, however, that there will be significant skiable snow on most high peak approaches. I think it'll probably be a good-weather hike, rather than a good-weather ski-&-shoe. Praying for the snow, ready for anything!

I feel like Imelda Marcos with the footwear!