Hurricane this weekend?

Mongoose · Nov 2, 2007

What do you people think of the weather predictions in the Whites this weekend? Most weather reports say it will be clear with maybe a little rain Sat. I keep hearing in the news about the remains of a hurricane possibly hitting the NH area with heavy winds though... I really want to get out Sat&Sun... maybe I'll do a hike and find a spot to camp in some dense trees.

bikehikeskifish · Nov 2, 2007

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...Field1=44.04560&textField2=-71.67060&site=all

The forecast for Saturday has gone downhill in the last 48 hours. According to the above, it is not going to be a deluge or anything, but it will likely rain. Less than 1/10" according to the corresponding text forecast.

Winds are <= 10 MPH with occasional gusts up to low 20s late Saturday.

Tim

Hillwalker · Nov 2, 2007

Weather

Looks like the further north and west one goes, the better chance of reasonable weather. Try the AT anywhere from Hanover to Kinsman Notch. Nice hiking and camping. Guess we will have to wait and see.

MichaelJ · Nov 2, 2007

SE Mass is supposed to get the brunt of it with 50-70mph winds. As noted, the further north and west you go, the less effect.

Waumbek · Nov 2, 2007

Hillwalker said:
Looks like the further north and west one goes, the better chance of reasonable weather. Try the AT anywhere from Hanover to Kinsman Notch. Nice hiking and camping. Guess we will have to wait and see.

NOAA forecasts a 20-40% chance of winds in excess of 40 mph in the Whites as Noel moves by on the coast this weekend. So, yes, heading westerly would seem to make good sense. But be aware that the western Whites, e.g., Kinsman Notch area, etc., is still recovering from the April '07 Nor'easter. After a breezy night this week, new trees were down. The wind was not excessive. Weakened trees are still coming down without major provocation--choose your tent site carefully.

Mattl · Nov 2, 2007

This is one of those trpical systems that the computer models constantly have to tweak its track because of how unpredictable it is, similar to a Nor-Easter in winter. 3 days ago the modes had it not even touch eastern Maine, now its going to come close enough for high wind and rain into eastern NH. If the low were to track 40-50 miles further west, this could be a serious problem and storm for us. It wont be a hurricane when it gets here because it will transition into an extratropical storm, but still have a reading of about 970-969, which is tremendous. Today will be a day of figuring out exactly where it goes. Hike the Kinsmans or..sadly..Greens if you want the clearest weather. -Matt

Mad Townie · Nov 2, 2007

Mattl said:
This is one of those trpical systems that the computer models constantly have to tweak its track because of how unpredictable it is

Yup, that's what the pros say, too. Check out the Mt. Washington forecast: http://www.crownweather.com/summitsforecast.html

sardog1 · Nov 2, 2007

You're doing a heckuva job Townie with that link! Saves me a lot of hopping around for Rock Pile info. Thanks for posting it.

Mac · Nov 2, 2007

Hurricane

Right now, all of the models are showing Halifax, Nova Scotia as the very centre of the bullseye

with maximum winds to be around 75 miles per hour (hurricane strength) along the coast. Since my office is on the waterfront, I may try to get some pics. If I'm successful, I'll post once power is restored.

DougPaul · Nov 2, 2007

The National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ gives frequently updated info on such storms.

(Waumbek's link points to a specific page at the NHC.)

Doug

Chip · Nov 2, 2007

I need a couple of you weather gurus to tell me what Long Island Sound off Norwalk CT is going to look like after about 11am tomorrow. A few of us are supposed to be kayaking and island camping.

Any predictions will be held to the same strict conditions outlined in my disclaimer.

Papa Bear · Nov 2, 2007

New York City stations are forecasting winds up to 45 MPH tomorrow with chance of showers. I would stay off the Sound. Just this morning during my run along the East River, winds were getting rather gusty.

Links: http://www.weather.com/weather/newscenter/alerts/nswxcategory/NY#top

Severe Weather Alert
Marine Weather Statement

/X.EXT.KOKX.MA.S.0023.071102T2200Z- 071104T1000Z/ LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS- SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY- MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM- FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM- SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM- 534 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007

...INTENSIFYING EXTRATROPICAL LOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...

HURRICANE NOEL...LOCATED ABOUT 470 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL STILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN INTENSE AND INCREASE IN SIZE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...RACING NORTH-NORTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THE STORM AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD INCREASE TO STORM FORCE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS... EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAY...AND TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS LATE TONIGHT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY GENERATE OCEAN SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FEET ON SATURDAY... POSSIBLY HIGHER. EVEN SEAS ON LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD BUILD TO AT LEAST 5 TO 8 FT. SEAS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN HIGH INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY...AS WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE LOW RACES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. CONSEQUENTLY...CHAOTIC CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS WILL BE EXPERIENCED BY MARINERS TONIGHT AND WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM...SO PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS IMPENDING STORM.

sardog1 · Nov 2, 2007

EDIT: Realized I posted the forecast for the coastal zone to the north and east. Here's yours. It's "only" a gale warning this time:

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
506 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007
MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND...LONG ISLAND BAYS AND NEW YORK HARBOR
ANZ335-022115-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0070.000000T0000Z-071103T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0025.071103T0600Z-071104T0200Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
506 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007
. . .
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING
. . .
SAT
N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7
FT. A CHANCE OF RAIN. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

(Still worth pics and video if anyone survives.

grouseking · Nov 2, 2007

If this stayed tropical in nature, its winds would stay offshore, but its turning extratropical, so its windfield is going to spread, and the storm is going to expand, which its already doing. You can already see that if you look at a satellite. That is what concerns me for tomorrow. Even if it doesn't rain tomorrow, there are going to be winds that are screaming out of the northeast if you are above treeline tomorrow. The combination of the ridge of high pressure to the north and the huge storm coming up the coast will create a strong pressure gradient which will funnel really strong winds. Prob not a good day for hiking, no matter what. Just stay low, or stay in.

Esp, the further east you are hiking.

grouseking

Grandaddy · Nov 2, 2007

grouseking said:
If this stayed tropical in nature, its winds would stay offshore, but its turning extratropical, so its windfield is going to spread, and the storm is going to expand, which its already doing.
grouseking

This is a GREAT point. Because Noel is turning into an extratropical storm, there are no tropical storm/ hurricane warnings out for Cape Cod/ Coastal ME, even though predicted conditions would warrant this. This can cause alot of confusion. The storm is transferring into a Nor'Easter-type of storm, which is no picnic! Make sure you hit the supermarket on the way home today...gotta have your nachos and salsa for the Pats on Sunday!

Mac · Nov 2, 2007

Hurricane

Grandaddy said:
This is a GREAT point. Because Noel is turning into an extratropical storm, there are no tropical storm/ hurricane warnings out for Cape Cod/ Coastal ME, even though predicted conditions would warrant this. This can cause alot of confusion. The storm is transferring into a Nor'Easter-type of storm, which is no picnic! Make sure you hit the supermarket on the way home today...gotta have your nachos and salsa for the Pats on Sunday!

Latest update from the Canadian Hurricane Centre (2 PM EDT) has increased maximum winds of 80 Knots (about 88MPH). Projected track can be found here http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html

Looks like it will be fairly off of Cape Cod by 2 PM EDT tomorrow at its closest approach to New England.

Kevin Judy and Emma · Nov 2, 2007

MWO Forecast

Yup, that's what the pros say, too. Check out the Mt. Washington forecast: http://www.crownweather.com/summitsforecast.html

and:

You're doing a heckuva job Townie with that link! Saves me a lot of hopping around for Rock Pile info. Thanks for posting it.

I'm confused. Why would anyone look for a Mount Washington Forecast anywhere but here? Weather home page from the Mount Washington Observatory:

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/

There is current summit weather:

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php

Links to the higher summit forecast:

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/summit_forecast.php

Links to the valley forecast:

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/summit_forecast.php

Real time views from Bretton Woods, the top of Wildcat, and three different views from the summit of Mount Washington:

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/cam/

And an Auto Road vertical temperature profile (ARVTP):

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/arvtp/

And if you want to you can listen to an MP3 version of the morning and evening summit reports.

Why go anywhere else?

KDT

Mike P. · Nov 2, 2007

At 1:30 Friday afternoon not a cloud in the sky in Hartford. at 4;30 it's clouded up. Our saturday, especially SE CT looks blustery - by flatlanders measurements

MichaelJ · Nov 2, 2007

Grandaddy said:
Make sure you hit the supermarket on the way home today...gotta have your nachos and salsa for the Pats on Sunday!

Done!

Awww, crud. I forgot the sour cream. Good thing I've got all that above-treeline gear; it will come in handy tomorrow.

sardog1 · Nov 2, 2007

I'm confused. Why would someone go to the trouble of listing all those links (which many of us know already), when the whole point of Townie's post is to save us all that hopping around on the Obs's website, by giving us a link to everything on one page? Unless maybe someone hadn't actually looked at Townie's link?

EDIt: If there's some lurking copyright issue(s) in the background, please educate me. I don't favor the misappropriation of intellectual property.

Hurricane this weekend?

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