Major Noreaster Coming!!

[Mattl]

Many of you know that much of central and Northern New England have not had a decent noreaster in many years. It has been at least 2 winters for me up here in central NH. Well, our waiting will pay off. This storm that is coming is not a normal foot producer, it will be a major storm that will likely shut down NE. Models are putting out over 3 inches of melted precip with this event, which if it is at a minimum of 10-1 ration would be two feet for places. But it will be a cold storm so there will be snow to rain ratios of more like 15 or 25-1 which could seriously mean places could get over 2-3 feet of snow. There will also be bitterly cold air behind it with this deepening low so I would not be surprised if blizzard warnings are issued for winds of over 50 mph. The storm will move up the coast and end up here around Wednesday morning, and not end in places like the mountains till Friday. If you are a skiier, hiker, or weather enthusiast, this will be very impressive. Lets get some storm totals posted on here if we can as well. I live in Lebanon, NH so ill be posting back. Here we go!! -Mattl

 

[Pig Pen]

I am not hoarding batteries and filling up my bathtub yet...

From NWS Burlington:
Monday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between -1 and 4. West wind between 9 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Monday Night: A slight chance of snow showers before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around -7. Wind chill values between -12 and -17. North wind between 7 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 11. Wind chill values between -5 and -15. North wind between 5 and 8 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 0. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Snow likely, mainly after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 5. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 13. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 13. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 2. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


And from Roger Hill, a local guy here in Vermont.
Coastal low edging closer to New england coast after bombing off Cape Hatteras NC. Lot's of issues on track, history has been poor with these system higging coastline, in favor European model has been tredning closest, American models following suit but will it happen? Jurry still out.

 

[sardog1]

Knock, knock, knockin' on heaven's door . . .

(Gray/Portland forecaster writes at 3:24 this afternoon: "CONFIDENCE LEVEL BECOMING HIGH FOR POTENTIAL MAJOR NOREASTER FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY . . . ")

 

[onestep]

Eyewitness Weather hasn't reported yet. 100% accurate. I'll wait and see.

Onestep

 

[dug]

So, is your glass half-empty or half-full?

 

[king tut]

Man, i really hope we get a big storm! Our biggest storm has been about 3 inches. I cannot recall going this long in a winter without getting anything that's plowable. I have a feeling this storm will get really hyped up and then be a total bust. Prove me wrong storm!

 

[LivesToHike]

Snow!

I also hope for snow. Thanks for posting an message to inspire us...

--- LTH

 

[TJ aka Teej]

It's been all my fault.

I bought myself new snowshoes for Christmas, and it hasn't snowed since...

Here's hoping for an extra helping of Valentine's Day snow!

 

[askus3]

I am looking forward to seeing heart shaped snowflakes. Maybe at Heart Lake you'll see 'em.

 

[grouseking]

This storm appears to be on its way, and should be making its presence felt as early as Tuesday night across southern New England and Wednesday morning across northern New England. Winds will be quite strong...maybe not quite blizzard potential in the mtns but winds will definitely be approaching 50 or 60 mph at the coast. Its kind of silly to think about snowfall amounts this early (esp since the storm hasn't even formed off the coast yet) but the way it is forecasted to move somewhere between Boston and Cape Cod the heaviest accumulation could be across the north country where the snow stays the fluffiest. Further south across southern NH and northern MA, there might be more water content which will make it a heavier, wetter snow and cut down on the amounts. Sadly, as of right now, if you live south of the MA/NH border, there is a very good chance of some sleet/freezing rain and possibly a change to rain. Then near Boston, and south, to the coast it will prob change to rain. The forecast track will prob change, but as of now thats what it look like....

To sum up....snow to rain in the big cities, strong winds

heavier snows across the interior, periodic strong winds

heaviest snows across the north/ski country the mountains (yay), gusty winds


Oh and if you live in an area that gets shadowed by the mountains during Noreasters, chances are that will happen with this one.....(think Lyndonville, St Johnsbury or basically the Northeast Kingdom in VT, the upper CT valley near Littleton, Dalton and Lancaster, Plymouth NH just to name a few.....)

Pray to the snow gods and hope we dont get dry slotted.....
grouseking

 

[dentonfabrics]

Hey,

Lets not jinx this guys!! This isnt the first time I've read predictions of major storms written up in this forum. I'm hoping for snow too (heck, I've got Wed and Thur off which would give me lots of time to play!) so lets all be very quiet...and...not...scare...away....the...snow.......

sshhhh!!

bob

 

[grouseking]

HERE IT COMES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ALL 2 FEET OF IT!!!!!


Oh quiet..... my bad

Still looks good, and it still looks like a change to rain at the coast. Southern NH will get 6-12 or 10-15 depending on if it changes to sleet. Way more up north!! More updates later....

 

[brianW]

Boy, this talk about snow is making me home sick! After work today I played catch with my daughter wearing a t-shirt and sandals. It was in the mid-60's and sunny.

I do believe I am the only one in my neighborhood that has a snow shovel.

-brianW

 

[Pig Pen]

I am not hoarding batteries and filling up my bathtub yet...

This Pig Pen guy must be a moron. From now on I go to Mattll for all my weather information. See Below:

From NWS Burlington:
Tuesday Night: A chance of snow after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 4. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday: Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 20. East wind between 5 and 8 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday Night: Periods of snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 11. Calm wind becoming northwest between 13 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Thursday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


From Roger Hill (Local Vermont Weather guy)
Bombogenisis = Rapid intensification of strong low pressure system off the US east coast.

Coastal low now tracking close enough and strong enough to cause havoc locally and Northeast Wide. European computer model tracks system off coast of Virginia and then into Gulf of Maine. This favors our region for the heaviest snowfall while keeping temperatures cold enough for snow if not even fluff factor.

 

[bubba]

It's coming here first!!

I actually had this open in another window and just talked to Mrs bubba about plans for the next couple days. Think about Hillman1 in Oswego - they'll get hit with this as well. Note that our "watch" has become a "Warning". Enough of this Lake Effect stuff - bring on the real stuff!

HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND THEN ON OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM AND
AFFECT OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR SUNSET TUESDAY AND BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE BUFFALO NIAGARA REGION TO 12 TO 18 INCHES FROM
ROCHESTER AND THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW.

THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST MAJOR GENERAL SNOWFALL OF THE WINTER SEASON
AND SHOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE WEATHER
RADIO OR THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES

I think a bunch of places are going to shut down for a day or two!

 

[Nessmuk]

...Think about Hillman1 in Oswego - they'll get hit with this as well. Note that our "watch" has become a "Warning". Enough of this Lake Effect stuff - bring on the real stuff!

I shoveled the roof of the cabin clean a week ago when there was even more snow (the chimney was completely buried then)... 7 days later it looked like this photo. It sure seemed like real stuff to me after skiing in over 1.5 miles of fluff to get there... twice. The picnic table "loaf of bread" photo shows the settling effect of the snow under it's own weight.

 

[sardog1]

Nessmuk, you are one evil guy posting those pictures this winter . . .

 

[SherpaKroto]

Guess what my first day back at work since last March is? Yup, Thursday. I might have to call in sick It sure would be nice to see some snow again!

 

[amstony]

Guess what my first day back at work since last March is? Yup, Thursday. I might have to call in sick

Remember better to be SAFE than to slip and fall...... Call me if you need a witness, my credibility is still good........!!!

I'd suspect its being overhyped, as usual, but every snow plow in the northeast will be out looking for the first snowflake!!

 

[sardog1]

At the risk of irritating my fellow travelers, may I offer two thoughts for this weekend, related to the massive amounts of new snow expected?

1. Avalanche danger will be present on many slopes in the White Mountains, including some of those that "never" slide. The USFS Avalanche Advisory for today (Tues., 2/13) states in part:
The storm system that is coming into the area tonight and lasting through Thursday morning will bring elevated avalanche danger. We are expecting to be posting either High or Extreme avalanche danger, depending on exactly how things pan out. Currently, NOAA is giving us storm totals of 12 to 18 inches (30-46cm) in the mountains, and slightly less as you move south. This is based on a 10:1 ratio of snow to water. I'm hoping to see a 5:1 ratio, which not only doubles the number of inches but also makes for lighter powder! Given the history of Nor'easters and the types of snow they usually drop, I may be overly optimistic. The Summit observers, however, don't rule out the possibility for 20-25 inches (51-63cm) due to the orographic effects in the mountains. The winds will play an important role in what actually happens with our avalanche cycle. They will be strong and from the SE as the storm begins, then moving to the NW after midnight tomorrow. We'll have to see when these shifts take place and how much snow has fallen at the time to get a better handle on where we will see the greatest potential for avalanche activity. If you're thinking of heading to the mountains, tonight might be a good time to get in the car and head over here, rather than waiting until the roads are covered with snow. Wouldn't it be nice to be stuck up here this week? Resort skiing or the Sherburne will be where it's at for a couple days until our snowpack begins to settle down some.

It isn't just Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines that you should approach with caution. If you don't know how to recognize avalanche terrain, I'd suggest that you find someone who does for route planning advice before you head out this weekend. (I'll start a separate thread today to collect "legends of the fall" from VFTT veterans, to help us all.)

2. Strong parties with several folks willing to break trail will probably have more fun this weekend than solos like me. (Unless you're a parasite who trails behind the worker bees. ) Might want to be conservative in your estimates of how far you will travel and how much work will be involved.